Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
No, overall prices in stores—particularly at the grocery store—are not lower compared to a year ago. However, they are increasing at a much slower rate than they were during the peak inflation years of 2022 and 2023.
Economists refer to this as disinflation (a slowing of price growth) rather than deflation (a broad drop in prices). While a select few individual items have gotten cheaper due to supply chain improvements, the overall cost of a shopping basket remains higher than it was last year.
1. U.S. Store and Grocery Prices
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the USDA:
What actually is cheaper than a year ago?
A few major categories have seen genuine price drops, largely due to supply chains recovering from earlier shocks:
What has gotten more expensive?
The drops in eggs and dairy have been offset by other items that continue to see price increases:
2. International Context (UK and Europe)
The trend of moderating—but still positive—inflation is similar across other major economies:
Why does the store bill still feel so high?
Many shoppers are frustrated that a cooling inflation rate hasn't translated to lower totals on their receipts. This disconnect happens for two main reasons:
To cope, major retailers have increasingly turned to aggressive promotions, couponing, and expanding their private-label ("store brand") offerings to give shoppers the perception of value without having to drop base shelf prices across the board.
Citations (11)
- foodtradenews.com
Backs: “No, overall prices in stores—particularly at the grocery store—are not lower compared to a year ago. However, they are increasing at a much slower rate than they were during the peak inflation years of 2022 and 2023.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Overall store and grocery prices are not lower than a year ago.
- grocerytradenews.com
Backs: “However, they are increasing at a much slower rate than they were during the peak inflation years of 2022 and 2023. Economists refer to this as disinflation (a slowing of price growth) rather than deflation (a broad drop in prices).”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Prices are increasing at a much slower rate than during the 2022-2023 peak inflation years.
- foodtradenews.com
Backs: “Economists refer to this as disinflation (a slowing of price growth) rather than deflation (a broad drop in prices). While a select few individual items have gotten cheaper due to supply chain improvements, the overall cost of a shopping basket remains higher than it was last year.”
background, article, points to no. Claim: Economists call slowing price growth disinflation rather than deflation, a broad drop in prices.
- usda.gov
Backs: “The Overall Basket: The U.S. "food-at-home" index (which measures grocery and supermarket prices) was 1.8% higher compared to the same period last year. Overall Consumer Price Index (CPI): Economy-wide, consumer prices are up 3.7% year-over-year.”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: U.S. food-at-home index was 1.8% higher than the same period last year.
- ons.gov.uk
Backs: “In the UK: Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 1.3%. While this is the lowest rate of increase in years, it still means British shoppers are paying more for their weekly groceries than they did last year.”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: UK food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 1.3%.
- foodfoundation.org.uk
Backs: “While this is the lowest rate of increase in years, it still means British shoppers are paying more for their weekly groceries than they did last year. In Europe: The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area is up to 3.8%, driven primarily by volatility in energy costs, with food prices continuing to climb by an average…”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: British shoppers still pay more for groceries than last year despite the lowest rate of increase in years.
- europa.eu
Backs: “In Europe: The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area is up to 3.8%, driven primarily by volatility in energy costs, with food prices continuing to climb by an average of 1.4% year-over-year. ---. Why does the store bill still feel so high?”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Euro Area inflation is 3.8%, with food prices up an average of 1.4% year-over-year.
- europa.eu
Backs: “In Europe: The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area is up to 3.8%, driven primarily by volatility in energy costs, with food prices continuing to climb by an average of 1.4% year-over-year. ---. Why does the store bill still feel so high?”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Euro Area inflation is 3.8%, with food prices up an average of 1.4% year-over-year.
- parliament.uk
Backs: “Cumulative Price Buildup: Slower inflation simply means prices are rising more gradually; it does not erase the massive price hikes that accumulated between 2021 and 2025. Persistent Surcharges: Retailers and food manufacturers are still grappling with structural costs, including higher wages for retail and supply…”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Slower inflation does not erase the price hikes accumulated between 2021 and 2025.
- ncoa.org
Backs: “Persistent Surcharges: Retailers and food manufacturers are still grappling with structural costs, including higher wages for retail and supply chain labor, elevated energy/transportation costs, and severe weather events (like droughts in Europe and the Americas) that continue to impact agricultural yields. To cope,…”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Retailers face structural costs like wages, energy, transportation and weather that keep prices elevated.
- foodfoundation.org.uk
Backs: “Persistent Surcharges: Retailers and food manufacturers are still grappling with structural costs, including higher wages for retail and supply chain labor, elevated energy/transportation costs, and severe weather events (like droughts in Europe and the Americas) that continue to impact agricultural yields. To cope,…”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Retailers face structural costs like wages, energy, transportation and weather that keep prices elevated.