Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they have risen modestly on average—though the rate of increase has slowed substantially from the high-inflation period of 2021–2023, some individual items are cheaper, many are stable, and retailers have cut prices or increased promotions on thousands of products.[1]

Official Inflation Data (Primarily U.S.)

•The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items was up about 3.4% year-over-year as of August 2026. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose around 2.4%.[2]

•Food overall rose about 2.7%, with food at home (groceries) up roughly 2.2%. Energy has been more volatile and contributed to higher headline figures in some recent periods.[3]

•Earlier periods (e.g., much of 2024) saw cooler goods inflation, with prices for goods sometimes flat or slightly down year-over-year (near -1% in some months), while services (housing, etc.) remained stickier.[4]

•Food-at-home prices rose about 2.3% on average in 2025 vs. 2024 (below the long-term historical average in some comparisons). Category variation is large: beef/veal and certain beverages have seen bigger increases; eggs, some dairy, fats/oils, and certain produce have declined in various windows after prior spikes.[5]

These are average changes across a broad basket. Individual shopping experiences vary by location, store, brand (national vs. private label), package size (shrinkflation has occurred but its overall CPI impact has been limited), and promotions.

Store-Level and Retailer Evidence

•Major retailers (Walmart, Target, Aldi, others) actively cut prices on thousands of items in 2024 (“rollbacks,” etc.) amid softer consumer demand, contributing to cooler goods inflation and more promotions/discounts. This continued into later periods with targeted deals.[6]

•An NPR price-tracking project at a Walmart (comparing ~96 items) found that over 2024, the basket rose less than 1% on average: roughly half of items were unchanged, ~21 got cheaper (e.g., some produce, salmon, pork), and ~27 rose (e.g., eggs amid avian flu, ground beef, some dairy/detergents). The 5-year view (vs. ~2019) was much higher (~+25%). Later tracking has shown more mixed or upward pressure in some years.[7]

•Specific examples of declines in various recent windows include eggs (sharp drops after bird-flu spikes), certain dairy, some produce/vegetables, pork, and select non-food goods. Increases have been notable in beef, coffee/cocoa-related items, and some packaged goods, influenced by supply (herds, weather, disease), costs, and other factors like tariffs in later data.[8]

•Goods (especially durables and some general merchandise) have seen more deflationary pressure or stability than services. Shoppers often notice promotions, private-label options, and discount formats more readily.

Why It May Not Feel Like Prices Are Lower

•Prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels (cumulative food-at-home inflation since ~2019/2020 is often cited in the 20–30%+ range depending on the exact basket and period). Brains anchor to older prices.[7]

•Mix effects, shrinkflation (smaller packages at similar prices), and trading down/up affect the checkout total. Wages have risen in many periods, partially offsetting, but not everyone experiences this equally.

•Energy, housing/shelter, and services continue to influence the broader cost of living even if some store shelves look better on deals.

Bottom line: Expect a mixed picture at the store—overall higher than a year prior per CPI and category averages, but with meaningful stability or declines on specific items, aggressive retailer discounting in recent years, and far slower inflation than the 2021–2022 peaks. Checking unit prices, sales, store brands, and multiple retailers (or apps) remains the best way to manage costs. Data is primarily U.S.-focused from BLS CPI, USDA, retailer announcements, and trackers; experiences differ internationally or by category.

Citations (8)

1nerdwallet.comCommercial content
https://www.nerdwallet.com/finance/learn/inflation
Backs: “No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago—they have risen modestly on average—though the rate of increase has slowed substantially from the high-inflation period of 2021–2023, some individual items are cheaper, many are stable, and retailers have cut prices or increased promotions on…”
2stlouisfed.orgGovernment
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/consumer-price-index-6838/august-2026-735977
Backs: “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items was up about 3.4% year-over-year as of August 2026. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose around 2.4%.”
3tinyurl.comNot yet classified
https://tinyurl.com/5a6c9pbv
Backs: “Energy has been more volatile and contributed to higher headline figures in some recent periods.”
4investopedia.comCommercial contentquality 0.93
https://www.investopedia.com/shoppers-could-be-seeing-lower-prices-this-holiday-season-8729096
Backs: “Earlier periods (e.g., much of 2024) saw cooler goods inflation, with prices for goods sometimes flat or slightly down year-over-year (near -1% in some months), while services (housing, etc.) remained stickier.”
5usda.govGovernment
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/76961
Backs: “Category variation is large: beef/veal and certain beverages have seen bigger increases; eggs, some dairy, fats/oils, and certain produce have declined in various windows after prior spikes.”
6retailbrew.comNews and media
https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2024/12/18/2024-was-the-year-of-discounts-price-cuts-and-more-affordable-assortments
Backs: “Major retailers (Walmart, Target, Aldi, others) actively cut prices on thousands of items in 2024 (“rollbacks,” etc.) amid softer consumer demand, contributing to cooler goods inflation and more promotions/discounts. This continued into later periods with targeted deals.”
7npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “Later tracking has shown more mixed or upward pressure in some years.”
8cnn.comNews and mediaquality 0.66
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/28/politics/fact-check-trump-grocery-prices
Backs: “Increases have been notable in beef, coffee/cocoa-related items, and some packaged goods, influenced by supply (herds, weather, disease), costs, and other factors like tariffs in later data.”