Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

On average, no, overall prices in stores are not lower than they were a year ago. However, the rate at which they are rising has slowed down significantly, and several major retail chains have launched aggressive "price wars" to cut costs on thousands of everyday items.

The distinction lies between macroeconomic data (what is happening on average across the country) and microeconomic trends (what individual retailers are doing to win over shoppers).

1. The Macro View: What the Economic Data Shows

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, average prices are still higher than they were a year ago. Economists call this disinflation—prices are still going up, just at a slower, more normal pace than the dramatic spikes of previous years.

•Overall Store Goods: General retail commodities (excluding food and energy) increased by about 0.8% year-over-year. Apparel prices rose by roughly 3.9%.

•Groceries (Food at Home): The CPI for grocery store purchases rose 2.2% year-over-year.

•Gas and Energy: Fueling up to go to the store is notably more expensive, with gasoline prices up over 24% compared to last year.

2. The Micro View: Retail Price Wars and Store-Specific Price Cuts

While average index numbers are up, retail giants are battling declining consumer confidence by actively cutting prices. If you shop at specific big-box stores or discount grocers, you will likely find thousands of items that are cheaper than last year:

•Target: Target lowered prices on nearly 2,000 home goods, apparel, and accessory items, building on more than 10,000 price reductions. Select apparel items are priced 20% or more below last year’s levels.

•Aldi: The discount grocer announced that nearly one-third of its entire in-store inventory is priced lower than last year. This includes steep drops on seasonal produce (like Honeycrisp apples, which are 35% cheaper) and proteins (with chicken breasts at their lowest prices since 2022).

•Walmart: Walmart has leaned heavily into "Rollbacks," slashing prices on thousands of summer and fall essentials, including ice cream, paper plates, sodas, and select cuts of meat.

3. Which Specific Items Are Cheaper vs. More Expensive?

Because price changes are highly dependent on supply chains and agricultural cycles, your receipt will look very different depending on what you buy:

•What is generally cheaper than last year:

•Eggs: Egg prices have dropped significantly from their record avian-flu peaks in early 2025.

•Dairy: Average dairy and related products have seen a slight overall decrease of about 0.3%.

•Select Produce and Chicken: Thanks to retailer-specific discounts at chains like Aldi, family-packs of chicken breast and seasonal vegetables are cheaper in many locations.

•What is more expensive than last year:

•Beef: Due to a cyclical contraction of the U.S. cattle herd, beef prices have risen significantly (some cuts are up double-digits year-over-year).

•Fresh Fruits: On average, fresh fruit is up 3.8% compared to last year.

•Dining Out: If you eat at a restaurant instead of buying store ingredients, expect to pay 3.4% more than you did a year ago.

Summary

While a broad basket of goods is technically 2% to 3% more expensive on average than it was a year ago, you can easily find lower prices compared to last year if you buy store brands, shop at discount grocers like Aldi, or target the highly publicized price cuts at Walmart and Target.

Citations (11)

1stocktwits.comSocial media and video
stocktwits.com
Backs: “The distinction lies between macroeconomic data (what is happening on average across the country) and microeconomic trends (what individual retailers are doing to win over shoppers).”
background, article, neutral. Claim: Distinguishes macroeconomic data on average prices from microeconomic trends in what individual retailers are doing to win shoppers.
2thecooldown.comCommercial content
thecooldown.com
Backs: “The distinction lies between macroeconomic data (what is happening on average across the country) and microeconomic trends (what individual retailers are doing to win over shoppers).”
background, article, neutral. Claim: Distinguishes macroeconomic data on average prices from microeconomic trends in what individual retailers are doing to win shoppers.
3in2013dollars.comData and tools
in2013dollars.com
Backs: “The Macro View: What the Economic Data Shows. According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, average prices are still higher than they were a year ago.”
evidence, data page, points to no. Claim: According to CPI data, average prices are still higher than they were a year ago.
4bls.govGovernment
bls.gov
Backs: “Overall Store Goods: General retail commodities (excluding food and energy) increased by about 0.8% year-over-year. Apparel prices rose by roughly 3.9%.”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: General retail commodities excluding food and energy increased about 0.8% year-over-year.
5bls.govGovernment
bls.gov
Backs: “Apparel prices rose by roughly 3.9%. Groceries (Food at Home): The CPI for grocery store purchases rose 2.2% year-over-year.”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Apparel prices rose roughly 3.9% year-over-year.
6usda.govGovernment
usda.gov
Backs: “Groceries (Food at Home): The CPI for grocery store purchases rose 2.2% year-over-year.”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: The CPI for grocery store purchases (food at home) rose 2.2% year-over-year.
7inc.comNews and mediaquality 0.88
inc.com
Backs: “If you shop at specific big-box stores or discount grocers, you will likely find thousands of items that are cheaper than last year: Target: Target lowered prices on nearly 2,000 home goods, apparel, and accessory items, building on more than 10,000 price reductions.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Shoppers at big-box stores or discount grocers will likely find thousands of items cheaper than last year.
8aldi.usCompanies
aldi.us
Backs: “Aldi: The discount grocer announced that nearly one-third of its entire in-store inventory is priced lower than last year. This includes steep drops on seasonal produce (like Honeycrisp apples, which are 35% cheaper) and proteins (with chicken breasts at their lowest prices since 2022).”
evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: Aldi announced nearly one-third of its in-store inventory is priced lower than last year, including apples and chicken.
9walmart.comCompanies
walmart.com
Backs: “Walmart: Walmart has leaned heavily into "Rollbacks," slashing prices on thousands of summer and fall essentials, including ice cream, paper plates, sodas, and select cuts of meat. 3.”
evidence, home page, points to yes. Claim: Walmart has used Rollbacks to cut prices on thousands of summer and fall essentials.
10reddit.comForums and Q&A
reddit.com
Backs: “What is generally cheaper than last year: Eggs: Egg prices have dropped significantly from their record avian-flu peaks in early 2025. Dairy: Average dairy and related products have seen a slight overall decrease of about 0.3%.”
evidence, other, points to yes. Claim: Egg prices have dropped significantly from record avian-flu peaks in early 2025.
11purdue.eduAcademic
purdue.edu
Backs: “What is more expensive than last year: Beef: Due to a cyclical contraction of the U.S. cattle herd, beef prices have risen significantly (some cuts are up double-digits year-over-year). Fresh Fruits: On average, fresh fruit is up 3.8% compared to last year.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Beef prices have risen significantly due to cyclical contraction of the U.S. cattle herd, some cuts up double digits.