Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Yes, stopping immigration entirely (or even sharply curtailing it) would cause or worsen labor shortages in multiple sectors of the U.S. economy, slow labor force growth, and reduce potential economic output—particularly in the short-to-medium term—though markets would eventually adjust through higher wages, automation, reduced production in some areas, and other changes.[1]
This is not just theoretical. It follows from U.S. demographics, the heavy reliance of certain industries on foreign-born workers, economic research on labor market complementarities, and real-world observations from recent immigration slowdowns and enforcement.
Demographics Make Immigration Critical for Labor Force Growth
The native-born working-age population (roughly ages 16–64 or prime-age 25–54) has been stagnant or declining due to low fertility rates and the aging of the Baby Boomers. Without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking years ago, and prime-age labor force growth is projected to turn negative in the coming decades.[2]
Immigrants have accounted for a large and growing share of labor force growth—often nearly all of it in recent years—because they tend to be younger and have higher labor force participation rates (especially men). Foreign-born workers made up about 19% of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2025.[3] Net immigration near zero would drop the monthly “breakeven” level of job growth needed to keep unemployment stable to very low levels (tens of thousands or near zero in some estimates), far below historical averages of 100,000–170,000+. This mechanically slows potential GDP growth.[4]
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Federal Reserve analyses consistently show that lower immigration reduces projected labor force and population growth, with knock-on effects for the size of the economy, productivity, and fiscal sustainability (e.g., Social Security and Medicare dependency ratios worsen as the worker-to-retiree ratio falls).[5]
Heavy Concentration in Key Sectors
Immigrants are not evenly distributed. They are overrepresented in occupations that many native-born workers avoid or are less available for (physically demanding, seasonal, low-wage relative to alternatives, or requiring specific skills/location flexibility):
Stopping inflows (and especially deportations of existing unauthorized workers) hits these hardest. The U.S. Department of Labor has explicitly warned that a near-total halt to unauthorized inflows risks “supply shock-induced food shortages,” noting that unemployed Americans “will not make themselves available in sufficient numbers, even at current wage levels,” for agricultural jobs.[1] Business groups and reports from 2025–2026 describe shortages and disruptions in restaurants, hotels, farms, construction, and care work amid crackdowns.[8]
Economic Evidence: Complements More Than Pure Substitutes
The popular “lump of labor” view (fixed number of jobs; immigrants take them from natives) is rejected by most economists. Immigrants expand the economic pie: they spend money (raising demand for goods/services and thus jobs), start businesses at higher rates, fill complementary roles (enabling natives to specialize in higher-productivity tasks), and contribute to productivity/innovation (especially high-skilled).[9]
Sudden stops create frictions: natives have lower geographic/occupational mobility, different preferences, and higher reservation wages for many of these jobs. Higher wages help attract some workers and spur automation/capital investment, but these take time, raise consumer prices (food, housing, services, care), and may shrink output in labor-intensive sectors rather than fully substitute.
Recent Real-World Signals and Long-Term Outlook
In periods of reduced immigration/enforcement (post-2024/2025 patterns in available data), payroll growth has slowed sharply while unemployment has not spiked equivalently—consistent with shrinking labor supply rather than pure demand weakness. Industries report applicant shortages, reduced hours/service, and higher costs. Long-term zero-immigration scenarios project substantially smaller labor force, employment, and GDP (e.g., tens of millions fewer workers and large cumulative GDP losses by mid-century relative to baseline).[13]
Nuances and Caveats
In summary, a sudden or total stop would produce clear labor shortages in agriculture, construction, hospitality, care work, and related fields, slow overall growth, and raise costs—consistent with demographics, industry data, and economic research. Gradual reforms that prioritize skills, temporary work where needed, and enforcement against illegal entry while maintaining legal pathways better balance labor needs with other goals. Markets adapt, but not frictionlessly or costlessly.
Citations (13)
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewtisch/2026/05/28/the-real-immigration-tragedy/
Backs: “Yes, stopping immigration entirely (or even sharply curtailing it) would cause or worsen labor shortages in multiple sectors of the U.S. economy, slow labor force growth, and reduce potential economic output—particularly in the short-to-medium term—though markets would eventually adjust through higher wages,…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Stopping immigration would cause or worsen labor shortages, with markets adjusting later; DOL warned of supply-shock food shortages and unavailable native workers.
- https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/11/immigration-and-changes-in-labor-force-demographics/
Backs: “Without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking years ago, and prime-age labor force growth is projected to turn negative in the coming decades.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Native working-age population is stagnant or declining, so without immigration labor force would shrink and prime-age growth turn negative.
- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/forbrn.nr0.htm
Backs: “Foreign-born workers made up about 19% of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2025.”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: Foreign-born workers made up about 19% of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2025.
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-migrant-halt-may-wipe-potential-job-growth-2025-06-24/
Backs: “Foreign-born workers made up about 19% of the U.S. civilian labor force in 2025.Net immigration near zero would drop the monthly “breakeven” level of job growth needed to keep unemployment stable to very low levels (tens of thousands or near zero in some estimates), far below historical averages of 100,000–170,000+.…”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Near-zero net immigration would drop breakeven monthly job growth to very low levels versus historical 100,000–170,000+, slowing potential GDP growth.
- https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61879
Backs: “Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Federal Reserve analyses consistently show that lower immigration reduces projected labor force and population growth, with knock-on effects for the size of the economy, productivity, and fiscal sustainability (e.g., Social Security and Medicare dependency ratios worsen as the…”
evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: CBO and Fed analyses show lower immigration reduces projected labor force and population growth, affecting economy size and fiscal sustainability.
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-industries-employ-the-most-immigrant-workers/
Backs: “Construction: Foreign-born share around 30%.”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Foreign-born share of construction is around 30%; education and health services employ the most immigrants in absolute numbers.
- http://ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-labor
Backs: “Roughly 70% foreign-born in the farm sector overall; for hired crop farmworkers, ~40–50%+ unauthorized (USDA/NAWS data show ~42% unauthorized in recent years for crop workers, with U.S.-born around 30–32%; shares higher in specialty crops, fruits/vegetables, dairy). H-2A guest workers fill some gaps but not all.”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: Farm labor heavily foreign-born, with roughly 42% of crop workers unauthorized; H-2A fills some gaps.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/14/immigration-crackdown-causes-massive-shortages-unskilled-labor/
Backs: “Department of Labor has explicitly warned that a near-total halt to unauthorized inflows risks “supply shock-induced food shortages,” noting that unemployed Americans “will not make themselves available in sufficient numbers, even at current wage levels,” for agricultural jobs.Business groups and reports from…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Business groups and reports describe shortages and disruptions in restaurants, hotels, farms, construction and care work amid crackdowns.
- https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/fall-2017/how-immigration-affects-workers-two-wrong-models-right-one
Backs: “Immigrants expand the economic pie: they spend money (raising demand for goods/services and thus jobs), start businesses at higher rates, fill complementary roles (enabling natives to specialize in higher-productivity tasks), and contribute to productivity/innovation (especially high-skilled).”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Economists reject the lump-of-labor view; immigrants expand the economy and complement native workers.
- https://www.thirdway.org/memo/front-door-welded-shut-how-trump-is-dismantling-legal-immigration
Backs: “Studies of deportations/enforcement often find negative spillovers for native employment—businesses scale back operations, reducing demand for complementary native workers (e.g., for every several unauthorized workers removed, some native jobs are lost too).”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Deportation and enforcement studies often find negative spillovers for native employment as businesses scale back.
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272721001948
Backs: “Historical episodes, such as 1930s Mexican repatriations, reduced native employment and led to occupational downgrading rather than clean replacement.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: 1930s Mexican repatriations reduced native employment and led to occupational downgrading rather than clean replacement.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/28/are-immigrants-taking-jobs-from-us-workers-heres-what-economists-say.html
Backs: “Consensus reviews find little overall harm to native employment or wages from historical immigration patterns.”
attribution, article, neutral. Claim: Consensus reviews find little overall harm to native employment or wages from historical immigration; wage effects small or positive.
- https://www.thefreelibrary.com/Immigration+and+United+States+Economic+Growth.-a0562004895
Backs: “Long-term zero-immigration scenarios project substantially smaller labor force, employment, and GDP (e.g., tens of millions fewer workers and large cumulative GDP losses by mid-century relative to baseline).”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Long-term zero-immigration scenarios project substantially smaller labor force, employment, and GDP by mid-century.