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Claude Sonnet 5Sep 21, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

Based on the latest data, the picture is mixed — overall, prices are still higher than a year ago, though not by as much as during the peak inflation years, and a few specific items have actually gotten cheaper.

Overall trend: still rising, but more slowly

•The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months as of the most recent report.
•For groceries specifically, the food-at-home CPI was unchanged from June 2026 to July 2026 and 2.7 percent higher than in July 2025. Meanwhile, food-away-from-home CPI increased 0.3 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and was 3.4 percent higher than in July 2025.
•Looking ahead, USDA forecasts prices for all food are forecast to increase 3.0 percent in 2026, with a forecast interval of 2.4 to 3.5 percent.

Where prices HAVE dropped

•Eggs are a standout: Retail egg prices decreased 0.4 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 25.7 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. This follows a period of extreme egg inflation, since an ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza that began in 2022 caused egg prices to increase by reducing egg-layer flocks and egg production, with retail egg prices increasing 32.2 percent in 2022, 1.4 percent in 2023, 8.5 percent in 2024, and 21.9 percent in 2025.
•Poultry has also dipped slightly: Poultry prices fell 0.5 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 0.5 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025.
•A local price check in Minnesota found eggs down from $5.45 in January 2025 to $2.05 in January 2026, chicken down from $8.85 to $6.91, bread slightly down from $1.87 to $1.57, and milk slightly down from $3.46 to $3.26.
•Earlier national data also showed several items cheaper year-over-year: eggs, tomatoes, potatoes, bread and chicken were all cheaper as of January 2026 than a year prior, with egg prices decreasing the most (-48.0%), followed by tomatoes (-12.6%), potatoes (-10.5%), bread (-4.3%), and chicken (-1.0%).

Where prices are still climbing

•Beef/ground beef has surged: the cost of a pound of ground beef rose the most between 2025 and 2026, from $5.55 to $6.75, a 21.8% increase.
•Fresh produce is up: retail fresh fruit prices increased by 1.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 4.9 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025, while retail fresh vegetable prices decreased by 1.6 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 6.3 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025, with prices 12.8 percent higher for fresh tomatoes, 7.5 percent higher for fresh lettuce, and 3.4 percent higher for fresh potatoes compared to a year earlier.
•Utilities and shelter are climbing even faster than groceries, with increases for utility gas (9.8%), electricity (6.3%), medical services (3.9%), and shelter (3.0%) outpacing food.

Bottom line: For most everyday goods, prices are still higher than a year ago, just at a slower pace of increase than during 2021–2023. The main exceptions are eggs, poultry, and a handful of items like bread, tomatoes, and potatoes, which have actually fallen in price after last year's spikes — while beef and fresh produce remain notably more expensive.

Citations (14)

  1. 1bls.govGovernment
    Consumer Price Index Summary - 2026 M08 Results

    Source excerpt: “Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.4 percent over the last 12 months to an inde...”

  2. 2usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI was unchanged from June 2026 to July 2026 and 2.7 percent higher than in July 2025....”

  3. 3usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “The food-away-from-home (restaurant and other foodservice purchases) CPI increased 0.3 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and was 3.4 percent higher ...”

  4. 4usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “In 2026, prices for all food are forecast to increase 3.0 percent, with a forecast interval of 2.4 to 3.5 percent. ”

  5. 5usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “Retail egg prices decreased 0.4 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 25.7 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. ”

  6. 6usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “An ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) that began in 2022 has caused egg prices to increase by reducing egg-layer flocks and ...”

  7. 7usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “Poultry prices fell 0.5 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 0.5 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025. ”

  8. 8cbsnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.88
    Costs appear to be down compared to a year ago for food staples in Twin Cities

    Source excerpt: “On average, eggs are down from $5.45 in January 2025 to $2.05 in January 2026. Chicken is down from $8.85 to $6.91. Bread is slightly down from $1.87 ...”

  9. 9usafacts.orgData and toolsquality 0.91
    Are groceries more expensive than last year? | USAFacts

    Source excerpt: “... Eggs, tomatoes, potatoes, bread and chicken were all cheaper as of January 2026 than a year prior. Egg prices decreased the most (-48.0%), followe...”

  10. 10usafacts.orgData and toolsquality 0.91
    Are groceries more expensive than last year? | USAFacts

    Source excerpt: “Out of nine grocery staples defined by the BLS, the cost of a pound of ground beef rose the most between 2025 and 2026, from $5.55 to $6.75, a 21.8% i...”

  11. 11usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “Retail fresh fruit prices increased by 1.1 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 and were 4.9 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. ”

  12. 12usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “Retail fresh vegetable prices decreased by 1.6 percent from June 2026 to July 2026 but were 6.3 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025. ”

  13. 13usda.govGovernment
    Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service

    Source excerpt: “Retail prices in July 2026 were 12.8 percent higher for fresh tomatoes, 7.5 percent higher for fresh lettuce, and 3.4 percent higher for fresh potatoe...”

  14. 14usafacts.orgData and toolsquality 0.91
    Are groceries more expensive than last year? | USAFacts

    Source excerpt: “That’s less than the increases for utility gas (9.8%), electricity (6.3%), medical services (3.9%), and shelter (3.0%), but more than new vehicles (0....”