Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Whether political polarization is worse than in the past depends entirely on how far back you look and how polarization is measured.

If compared to the mid-to-late 20th century, the answer is a resounding yes—by nearly every metric, the country is more divided today. However, if we look at the full arc of American history, we are currently at levels of division comparable to the Reconstruction Era, though we have not yet reached the ultimate peak of polarization: the Civil War.

1. The Modern Era (The Last 50 Years): Polarization is Decidedly Worse

Political scientists generally divide polarization into two types: ideological polarization (differences in policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of the opposing party). Both have surged dramatically in recent decades.

•The Vanishing Middle in Congress: According to DW-NOMINATE data (which tracks legislative voting records over time), the ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans in Congress is wider than at any point in the last 50 years. In the early 1970s, there were over 160 moderate Democrats and Republicans in Congress whose voting records overlapped. Today, that moderate "middle" has virtually disappeared, leaving only a couple dozen.

•The Rise of "Affective" Polarization: It is not just that Americans disagree on policies; they increasingly dislike one another. Pew Research polling shows a massive spike in partisan hostility. In 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the other party as "more immoral" than other Americans. By 2022, those numbers skyrocketed to 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats.

•Interpersonal Dislike: This hostility has bled into private life. In 1960, only 4% to 5% of Americans reported they would be displeased if their child married someone of the opposing political party. By the 2010s, that number rose to roughly one-third of Democrats and half of all Republicans.

•Party "Sorting": Historically, the political parties were big, messy coalitions. For much of the 20th century, there were conservative Southern Democrats and liberal Northern Republicans. Over the last few decades, voters and politicians have "sorted" themselves. Today, ideological identity, geography, and racial/demographic identity are almost perfectly aligned with party identity, making political disputes feel existential.

2. Deep History: It Has Been This Bad (and Worse) Before

While today’s polarization is unprecedented for anyone alive today, American history is filled with eras of extreme partisan rancor and institutional breakdown.

•The Civil War Era (1850s–1860s): This remains the absolute benchmark for American polarization. In the 1850s, polarization over slavery led to literal physical violence on the floor of Congress—such as the near-fatal beating of Senator Charles Sumner with a cane in 1856. This polarization eventually caused the nation to fracture into a civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

•The Reconstruction Era (Late 1870s): Following the Civil War, congressional polarization reached levels nearly identical to those we see today. Parties used "constitutional hardball" to manipulate voting rules, deny election credentials to opponents, and attempt to strip the other side of legitimacy.

•The Gilded Age (Late 19th Century): The late 1800s saw incredibly close, bitter elections, massive wealth inequality, and intense cultural fights over immigration and industrialization. Just like today, the parties were highly cohesive, compromises were rare, and media outlets were openly partisan yellow-journalism machines.

3. The Nuance: Elites vs. The General Public

Many political scientists argue that to understand modern polarization, we must distinguish between the political elites (politicians, media figures, activists) and the mass public.

A study from the University of Cambridge tracking American public opinion from 1988 to 2024 revealed that while polarization on core issues has indeed risen (particularly driven by the left shifting significantly more socially liberal over the last two decades), the average American is still far more moderate than their political leaders.

However, because the political class and media echo chambers have become so polarized, everyday citizens suffer from a misperception problem. They assume the average supporter of the opposing party holds the same extreme views as that party's most vocal, media-grabbing elites. This exaggerates the feeling of polarization, driving affective hostility even if ordinary citizens still agree on more than they realize.

Summary

Is it worse than in the past?

•Yes, if you are comparing today to any point in the post-WWII era. The current level of partisan animosity and congressional gridlock has no modern precedent.

•No, if you look at the entire 250-year history of the United States. The country has survived similarly toxic, highly polarized eras before—most notably the Gilded Age and the Reconstruction Era—though avoiding the catastrophic breakdown of the 1860s remains the primary challenge of the modern political system.

Citations (13)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “Whether political polarization is worse than in the past depends entirely on how far back you look and how polarization is measured.”
2usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “If compared to the mid-to-late 20th century, the answer is a resounding yes—by nearly every metric, the country is more divided today. However, if we look at the full arc of American history, we are currently at levels of division comparable to the Reconstruction Era, though we have not yet reached the ultimate peak…”
3pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
pewresearch.org
Backs: “If compared to the mid-to-late 20th century, the answer is a resounding yes—by nearly every metric, the country is more divided today. However, if we look at the full arc of American history, we are currently at levels of division comparable to the Reconstruction Era, though we have not yet reached the ultimate peak…”
4democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
democracyproject.org
Backs: “However, if we look at the full arc of American history, we are currently at levels of division comparable to the Reconstruction Era, though we have not yet reached the ultimate peak of polarization: the Civil War.”
5brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
brookings.edu
Backs: “However, if we look at the full arc of American history, we are currently at levels of division comparable to the Reconstruction Era, though we have not yet reached the ultimate peak of polarization: the Civil War.”
6wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “Political scientists generally divide polarization into two types: ideological polarization (differences in policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of the opposing party). Both have surged dramatically in recent decades.”
7facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “The Rise of "Affective" Polarization: It is not just that Americans disagree on policies; they increasingly dislike one another. Pew Research polling shows a massive spike in partisan hostility.”
8syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “Pew Research polling shows a massive spike in partisan hostility. In 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the other party as "more immoral" than other Americans.”
9cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “Over the last few decades, voters and politicians have "sorted" themselves. Today, ideological identity, geography, and racial/demographic identity are almost perfectly aligned with party identity, making political disputes feel existential.”
10bemidjistate.eduAcademic
bemidjistate.edu
Backs: “Today, ideological identity, geography, and racial/demographic identity are almost perfectly aligned with party identity, making political disputes feel existential.”
11cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “A study from the University of Cambridge tracking American public opinion from 1988 to 2024 revealed that while polarization on core issues has indeed risen (particularly driven by the left shifting significantly more socially liberal over the last two decades), the average American is still far more moderate than…”
12syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “However, because the political class and media echo chambers have become so polarized, everyday citizens suffer from a misperception problem. They assume the average supporter of the opposing party holds the same extreme views as that party's most vocal, media-grabbing elites.”
13brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “The current level of partisan animosity and congressional gridlock has no modern precedent. No, if you look at the entire 250-year history of the United States.”