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Grok 4.5Nov 5, 2026x-ai/grok-4.5-20260708

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Yes, by most measurable standards—especially since the mid-to-late 20th century—political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been in recent decades, though it is not unprecedented in the full sweep of American history, and the public is not always as divided on issues as elites or perceptions suggest.[1]

Polarization has multiple dimensions: elite/congressional (voting and ideology of politicians), ideological/issue (policy positions of the public), affective (emotional dislike or hostility toward the other side), and sorting (alignment of identities, geography, and partisanship). Trends vary somewhat by measure, but the overall picture shows a clear rise.

Elite and Congressional Polarization

Using DW-NOMINATE scores (which place legislators on a liberal-conservative spectrum based on roll-call votes), the ideological gap between the average Democrat and Republican in Congress has widened substantially since the 1970s. It is now wider than at any point in the past 50 years and comparable to or exceeding levels from the late 19th century (post-Reconstruction era). Overlap between the parties has nearly disappeared—moderates who once crossed party lines are rare, and bipartisan coalitions on major votes are far less common.[2]

•The mid-20th century (roughly New Deal through the 1970s) was an unusually low-polarization period, partly because parties were less ideologically sorted (e.g., conservative Southern Democrats and liberal Northern Republicans). Polarization is closer to the historical American norm than that postwar “consensus” era.[3]
•Movement has often been described as asymmetric (Republicans shifting further right in some analyses), though both parties have moved away from the center.

Affective Polarization (Hostility and Dislike)

This has risen sharply and is particularly concerning. Americans’ “feeling thermometer” ratings of the opposing party have dropped dramatically since the late 1970s/1980s, while in-party ratings stayed relatively stable or improved slightly. The gap roughly doubled in many datasets.[4]

Pew Research data shows:

•In 1994, fewer than a quarter of partisans rated the other party “very unfavorably.” By the early 2020s, majorities (around 50–60%+) did so.[5]
•Negative stereotypes surged: Large majorities now see the other party as more immoral, dishonest, closed-minded, etc., compared to earlier surveys (e.g., “immoral” views jumped significantly from 2016 levels alone).[5]

Cross-nationally, the U.S. has experienced one of the largest (or the largest) increases in affective polarization among OECD countries studied over recent decades. Some analyses using V-Dem data describe U.S. levels as reaching “pernicious” territory uncommon among long-standing wealthy democracies.[6]

Related social effects include rising reports of stressful political conversations, friendships ending over politics, and geographic/social sorting.

Issue Positions, Ideological Consistency, and Sorting

•Sorting has increased: People are more likely to hold consistently liberal or conservative views that align with their party. Partisan identities have strengthened and overlapped more with other identities (race, religion, culture, geography).[7]
•Issue gaps: A Cambridge University analysis of American National Election Studies data (1988–2024) found divisions on social and political issues rose about 64% since 1988, with nearly all the increase after 2008 (around the financial crisis, Obama election, and rise of smartphones/social media). Much of this was driven by the left becoming substantially more socially liberal, while the right shifted only modestly more conservative on the measured issues. Sorting into parties/labels also rose. Polarization may have begun leveling somewhat later, but remains elevated.[8]
•Other work confirms Democrats and Republicans have grown more ideologically distant, though the broader public still has a substantial “messy middle” with overlapping views, and people often overestimate differences.[9]

Gaps have widened on many hot-button issues (abortion, immigration, climate, race/equality, government power), per Gallup and others, though not uniformly on every topic.[10]

Historical and Comparative Context

The U.S. has endured deeper divisions: the Civil War and 1850s sectional crisis, Reconstruction violence, the 1960s (civil rights, Vietnam, assassinations, urban riots), and intense early-republic factionalism (Federalists vs. Democratic-Republicans). Some historians argue today’s splits, while severe and permeating daily life/media/culture, do not yet match those in intensity of violence or existential stakes for the regime.[11]

What stands out now is the combination of high elite polarization, intense affective hostility, media fragmentation, geographic sorting, and near-parity of the two camps in a two-party system—making conflict feel constant and zero-sum. The mid-20th-century low-polarization period was the outlier. Polarization can also be a byproduct of progress (e.g., civil rights realignment ending the old bipartisan consensus that preserved discriminatory orders).[12]

Caveats and Nuances

•Elites and highly engaged partisans are more polarized than the average voter. Many Americans express frustration with both parties and wish for more options.
•Some research finds stable underlying value clusters with rising partisan alignment to them, rather than wholly new value divides.
•Causes are debated: party sorting after the civil rights era, primary systems/gerrymandering, rising inequality, cable news/social media (especially post-2008), declining trust in institutions, and cultural/identity shifts.
•Trends are not perfectly linear or irreversible; some metrics have shown plateaus or slight easing at times.

In short, relative to the postwar era and especially the last 30–40 years, polarization is worse across key dimensions (congressional ideology, affective hostility, and sorting/consistency). It feels acute because it is high, persistent, and amplified by modern media and close electoral competition. It is not the absolute worst in U.S. history, but it is unusually high for a stable peacetime democracy and distinctive internationally. Data from sources like Pew, ANES, DW-NOMINATE/Voteview, Gallup, and academic clustering studies consistently support this assessment.

Citations (12)

  1. 1scienceinsights.orgLow provenance
    https://scienceinsights.org/how-political-polarization-has-changed-over-time/

    Backs: “Yes, by most measurable standards—especially since the mid-to-late 20th century—political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been in recent decades, though it is not unprecedented in the full sweep of American history, and the public is not always as divided on issues as elites or perceptions…”

  2. https://higginsstrategy.com/studies/what-congress-ran-on/

    Backs: “Overlap between the parties has nearly disappeared—moderates who once crossed party lines are rare, and bipartisan coalitions on major votes are far less common.”

  3. 3cambridge.orgAcademic
    https://www.cambridge.org/universitypress/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/party-polarization-america-war-over-two-social-contracts

    Backs: “Polarization is closer to the historical American norm than that postwar “consensus” era.”

  4. 4goodauthority.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/

    Backs: “Americans’ “feeling thermometer” ratings of the opposing party have dropped dramatically since the late 1970s/1980s, while in-party ratings stayed relatively stable or improved slightly. The gap roughly doubled in many datasets.”

  5. 5pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/

    Backs: “In 1994, fewer than a quarter of partisans rated the other party “very unfavorably.” By the early 2020s, majorities (around 50–60%+) did so.”

  6. 6theatlantic.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/us-democrat-republican-partisan-polarization/629925/

    Backs: “Some analyses using V-Dem data describe U.S. levels as reaching “pernicious” territory uncommon among long-standing wealthy democracies.”

  7. 7pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/feature/political-polarization-1994-2017/

    Backs: “Partisan identities have strengthened and overlapped more with other identities (race, religion, culture, geography).”

  8. 8cam.ac.ukAcademic
    https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states

    Backs: “Polarization may have begun leveling somewhat later, but remains elevated.”

  9. 9npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
    https://www-s4.npr.org/2026/11/02/nx-s1-6003534/us-political-polarization-research-trump

    Backs: “Other work confirms Democrats and Republicans have grown more ideologically distant, though the broader public still has a substantial “messy middle” with overlapping views, and people often overestimate differences.”

  10. 10nationalreview.comNews and mediaquality 0.57
    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/partisan-gap-widens-on-hot-button-issues-gallup-report/

    Backs: “Gaps have widened on many hot-button issues (abortion, immigration, climate, race/equality, government power), per Gallup and others, though not uniformly on every topic.”

  11. 11archive.isData and tools
    https://archive.is/2026.07.05-104443/https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis

    Backs: “Some historians argue today’s splits, while severe and permeating daily life/media/culture, do not yet match those in intensity of violence or existential stakes for the regime.”

  12. 12nytimes.comNews and mediaquality 0.86
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/opinion/trump-democracy-political-polarization.html

    Backs: “Polarization can also be a byproduct of progress (e.g., civil rights realignment ending the old bipartisan consensus that preserved discriminatory orders).”