Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization today feels unprecedented — I'll pull comparative historical research to see how it measures up.

Is political polarization worse than in the past depends on what time frame and what type of polarization you mean:

Compared to recent decades: Yes, significantly worse

By modern measurement standards, polarization is at a recent high and has accelerated:

•Divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all the rise in US polarisation over political issues since the late 1980s occurred from 2008 onwards.

•The University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions over almost four decades, and found polarisation almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties. Starting in 2008, divisions steadily rose.

•Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases in polarization during the 2000s onwards.

•In that period, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies.

There are two types scholars distinguish:

1. Ideological polarization - differences in policy positions - and affective polarization - dislike and distrust of political out-groups.

•Affective polarization has surged dramatically. Pew's data show in 1994, only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats held a very unfavorable view of the other party. By 2022, those figures had risen to 62% and 54%, respectively. Similarly, members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014.

•Congressional polarization: Political scientists track this with DW-NOMINATE scores. Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the end of Reconstruction. The 112th Congress was described as a particularly depressing example it is the most polarized legislative body in our nation's history.

•Sorting and alignment: People have also sorted more cleanly into parties. By 2024 data, ideology and party identity have become much more aligned than in 1988, and belief consolidation means someone with left-wing views on one issue is less likely to hold right-wing views on another than in the past.

Other indicators point the same way: in 2025 the percentage of Americans self-identifying as politically moderate reached a record low of 34%.

Compared to all of American history: No, not the worst

Historians generally argue current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.

•One common counter-argument: "I can think of at least one time polarization was way worse than it is now — between 1861 and 1865, when the Civil War was going on". To compare anything that has transpired in the past few years to this cataclysmic upheaval represents a spectacular lack of understanding about American history.

•The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870 – 1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history, with open political violence and highly polarized political discourse.

In other words, the 1950s and 1960s were marked by high levels of political bipartisanship due to post-World War II consensus, making today look extremely polarized by comparison to the last 60-70 years. Compared to the 1850s-1860s or the 1890s, today is not the most divided the country has ever been.

Important nuance: Perceived vs. actual polarization

Research suggests Americans are less ideologically polarized than they think, and that there is significant ideological overlap and agreement on policies.

Although Americans are less ideologically polarized than they believe, they are very emotionally polarized (also known as affective polarization). In other words, "they do not like members of the other party".

Elite polarization (among elected officials, activists, media figures) is also more intense than mass polarization among average voters who are not deeply involved in politics.

Bottom line: If "the past" means since polling began in the 1940s-1970s or since the 1990s, yes — polarization, especially affective/hostility toward the other party, is worse than ever measured. If "the past" means the entire history of the United States, no — the Civil War era and Gilded Age were more deeply and violently divided.

Citations (2)

1cam.ac.ukAcademic
Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Backs: “Compared to recent decades: Yes, significantly worse. By modern measurement standards, polarization is at a recent high and has accelerated:”
2wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Political polarization in the United States
Backs: “The University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions over almost four decades, and found polarisation almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties. Starting in 2008, divisions steadily rose.”