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Grok 4.5Nov 3, 2026x-ai/grok-4.5-20260708

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Yes, in several key measurable ways—particularly among political elites, in partisan sorting, and in affective (emotional) dislike of the other side—political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been for much of the past century, and it ranks among the highest levels in U.S. history outside of extreme periods like the Civil War era. However, it is not unprecedented, absolute levels of political violence have been higher in other periods (such as the 1960s–1970s), and the picture is more nuanced depending on the specific dimension measured (elite vs. mass, ideological vs. affective) and the historical baseline.[1]

Polarization is multifaceted: ideological (differences in policy views), affective (dislike or distrust of the opposing side), elite (politicians and parties), and mass (the public). Sorting (alignment of ideology, identity, and party) amplifies it. Data come primarily from U.S. sources like Pew Research, American National Election Studies (ANES), DW-NOMINATE congressional scores, and academic studies; the U.S. is often an outlier compared to other democracies.[2]

Elite/Congressional Polarization

Congress is more polarized than at any point in the modern era (roughly post-World War II) and approaches or exceeds late-19th-century (Gilded Age/post-Reconstruction) peaks on standard metrics.

DW-NOMINATE scores (which place legislators on a liberal-conservative dimension based on roll-call votes) show the parties pulling apart since the 1970s. The ideological distance between the average Democrat and Republican has grown substantially; party overlap has collapsed nearly to zero (few remaining conservative Democrats or liberal Republicans after the Southern realignment); and parties are more internally homogeneous. This trend accelerated in recent decades and is often described as somewhat asymmetric (Republicans shifting further right on average, though Democrats have also moved left).[3][4]

Bipartisan cooperation has declined sharply, contributing to gridlock. This is higher than mid-20th-century levels (when cross-party coalitions were common) but comparable to earlier high-polarization eras in the First Party System (1790s–1820s) or post-Civil War period.[5]

Mass Public: Issue/Ideological Polarization and Sorting

Among the public, clear trends show rising polarization and especially sorting since the late 20th century, with acceleration after ~2008 in some measures.

•A University of Cambridge analysis of ANES data (1988–2024) using clustering found issue polarization (on topics like abortion, equality, traditional values, etc.) rose ~64%, with nearly all the increase after 2008 (around the financial crisis, Obama’s election, and smartphone/social media expansion). It was largely flat in the 1990s–early 2000s. The shift was driven mainly by the left-leaning cluster becoming substantially more socially liberal (~31.5% more so by 2024 vs. 1988), while the right shifted only modestly more conservative (~2.8%). Clusters became more distinct, and sorting into party/ideological labels increased. Polarization may have begun leveling somewhat recently but remains elevated. The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right clusters.[6][7]
•Pew Research has documented widening partisan gaps on political values and issues (e.g., government size, race, immigration, guns, abortion, climate) since the 1990s. The average Democrat and Republican are farther apart than in earlier Pew data; consistency of liberal/conservative views has risen; and median partisans now show little overlap.[8][9]
•Other work finds that underlying value divides (e.g., moral/religious) have been relatively stable for decades, but partisan polarization rose as parties better sorted around those values—people increasingly align their party ID with their broader identities and views. Generational replacement is not the main driver; sorting occurs within cohorts.[10][11]

Not all Americans are highly polarized—many remain moderate or cross-pressured—but the politically engaged, partisans, and those sorted by multiple identities (party + race/religion/geography/culture) drive the intensity. Geographic and social sorting (e.g., like-minded communities, media) reinforces this.

Affective Polarization

This has risen markedly and is a major reason polarization “feels” worse. People increasingly view the opposing party and its supporters negatively—as immoral, dishonest, closed-minded, a threat, etc.—rather than just disagreeing on policy.

•ANES feeling thermometers show out-party ratings dropping substantially since the 1970s/1980s (e.g., from near-neutral ~48 toward much colder ratings like the mid-20s in recent data), while in-party warmth has been more stable. The gap (affective polarization) has roughly doubled in some periods.[12][13]
•Pew (2022 and earlier): Large majorities in both parties now rate the other very unfavorably (far higher than in 1994, when it was under a quarter). Shares saying the other side is more immoral, dishonest, etc., have surged (e.g., ~70%+ range recently vs. much lower earlier).[14][14]
•Behavioral indicators: Rising reluctance for inter-party marriage, viewing the other side’s victory as lasting harm to the country, etc. The U.S. has shown one of the largest increases in affective polarization among OECD countries over recent decades.[15]

This “us vs. them” dynamic is linked to identity alignment and media environments.

Historical Context and Caveats

•Worse than recent past (mid-20th century to 1990s/2000s): Clear yes on elite polarization, sorting, issue gaps among partisans, and especially affective hostility. The 1950s–early 1970s featured more ideological overlap in Congress and less consistent mass partisan sorting.
•Compared to deeper history: Not the absolute worst. The Civil War era involved secession and massive violence. The 1960s–1970s featured intense division over civil rights, Vietnam, culture, plus high political violence (assassinations, riots, hundreds/thousands of bombings annually by radical groups), deep unpopularity of figures like MLK at times, and campus/societal upheaval that dwarfs recent campus protests in scale. Gilded Age polarization included open political violence and extreme rhetoric. Earlier party systems also had intense peaks.[1][16]
•Some analysts note today’s divisions rival intense pre-Civil War or 1960s friction in partisan/regional intensity but differ in character (more nationalized via media, less physical street violence currently, more focus on democratic norms/institutions). “Pernicious polarization” (where opponents are seen as existential threats, risking democratic erosion) is high; the U.S. stands out among wealthy Western democracies for persistent high levels.[2][2]
•Violence concerns exist (rising support in some polls for political violence as a last resort, especially tied to election denial), but actual incidence remains far below 1960s–70s or 19th-century peaks.[1]

Drivers (not exhaustive): Party realignment (especially South), primary systems/gerrymandering favoring extremes, rising inequality and cultural/identity changes, nationalized media and social media (echo chambers, outrage algorithms), elite cues, and equal-sized coalitions making competition zero-sum. Polarization can be a byproduct of progress (e.g., civil rights realigning parties).[17]

In short, current U.S. polarization is severe by post-WWII standards and high historically on elite, sorting, and affective metrics, contributing to dysfunction, distrust, and risks to norms. It is not unique in American history, and past high-polarization periods have depolarized (often via one-party dominance or realignments). Trends can shift with leadership, institutions, media, or events, though many factors are structural. International comparisons show the U.S. as an outlier in the intensity of recent rises among peer democracies.

Citations (17)

  1. 1nytimes.comNews and mediaquality 0.86
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/political-violence-history-division.html

    Backs: “However, it is not unprecedented, absolute levels of political violence have been higher in other periods (such as the 1960s–1970s), and the picture is more nuanced depending on the specific dimension measured (elite vs. mass, ideological vs. affective) and the historical baseline.”

  2. 2theatlantic.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/us-democrat-republican-partisan-polarization/629925/

    Backs: “Data come primarily from U.S. sources like Pew Research, American National Election Studies (ANES), DW-NOMINATE congressional scores, and academic studies; the U.S. is often an outlier compared to other democracies.”

  3. 3scunning.comNot yet classified
    https://www.scunning.com/files/gov51/paper1_descriptive.pdf

    Backs: “This trend accelerated in recent decades and is often described as somewhat asymmetric (Republicans shifting further right on average, though Democrats have also moved left).”

  4. 4refind.comNot yet classified
    https://refind.com/links/123044176

    Backs: “This trend accelerated in recent decades and is often described as somewhat asymmetric (Republicans shifting further right on average, though Democrats have also moved left).”

  5. 5rochester.eduAcademic
    http://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/alexander_lee/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/How_Polarization_Ends-12.pdf

    Backs: “This is higher than mid-20th-century levels (when cross-party coalitions were common) but comparable to earlier high-polarization eras in the First Party System (1790s–1820s) or post-Civil War period.”

  6. 6cam.ac.ukAcademic
    https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states

    Backs: “The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right clusters.”

  7. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/2/251428/479919/A-new-measure-of-issue-polarization-using-k-means

    Backs: “The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right clusters.”

  8. 8pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/05/1-partisan-divides-over-political-values-widen

    Backs: “The average Democrat and Republican are farther apart than in earlier Pew data; consistency of liberal/conservative views has risen; and median partisans now show little overlap.”

  9. 9pew.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://www.pew.org/en/trust/archive/winter-2025/how-us-public-opinion-has-changed-in-20-years-of-pew-research-center-surveys

    Backs: “The average Democrat and Republican are farther apart than in earlier Pew data; consistency of liberal/conservative views has risen; and median partisans now show little overlap.”

  10. 10stanford.eduAcademic
    https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/polarization-united-states-reconsidered

    Backs: “Generational replacement is not the main driver; sorting occurs within cohorts.”

  11. 11suchscience.netNot yet classified
    https://suchscience.net/younger-us-generations-are-less-polarized-than-baby-boomers-50-years-of-surveys-show/

    Backs: “Generational replacement is not the main driver; sorting occurs within cohorts.”

  12. 12goodauthority.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/

    Backs: “The gap (affective polarization) has roughly doubled in some periods.”

  13. 13archive.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://web.archive.org/web/20211217010716/https:/www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034

    Backs: “The gap (affective polarization) has roughly doubled in some periods.”

  14. 14pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/

    Backs: “Shares saying the other side is more immoral, dishonest, etc., have surged (e.g., ~70%+ range recently vs. much lower earlier).”

  15. 15stanford.eduAcademic
    https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/cross-polar.pdf

    Backs: “The U.S. has shown one of the largest increases in affective polarization among OECD countries over recent decades.”

  16. 16cnn.comNews and mediaquality 0.66
    https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis

    Backs: “Gilded Age polarization included open political violence and extreme rhetoric. Earlier party systems also had intense peaks.”

  17. 17nytimes.comNews and mediaquality 0.86
    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/opinion/trump-democracy-political-polarization.html

    Backs: “Polarization can be a byproduct of progress (e.g., civil rights realigning parties).”