Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, by most quantitative measures of the modern era (especially since the mid-20th century), political polarization in the United States is worse—or at least higher and more intense—than it has been in recent decades, though the U.S. has experienced deeper or more violent divisions in earlier periods like the Civil War era.[1][2]
Polarization has multiple dimensions: elite/ideological (e.g., how parties and politicians vote or position themselves), mass/public issue-based (policy preference gaps), affective (emotional dislike/distrust of the other side), and others like geographic or social sorting. Trends vary somewhat by measure and time frame, but the overall picture shows a clear rise from the relatively low-polarization mid-20th century baseline.
Elite/Congressional Polarization
Roll-call voting data using DW-NOMINATE scores (which place legislators on a liberal-conservative scale based on votes, comparable over time) show that Democrats and Republicans in Congress are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50+ years. The gap has widened steadily since the 1970s, with rapid increases in recent decades. Overlap between the parties has essentially vanished (no more “conservative Democrats” or “liberal Republicans” bridging the middle in significant numbers).[3][3]
This contributes to gridlock, fewer bipartisan bills, and more party-line votes.
Public/Mass Polarization (Issues and Sorting)
A 2026 Cambridge University study using American National Election Studies (ANES) data (1988–2024) and clustering algorithms found that divisions on social and political issues increased by about 64% since 1988, with nearly all the rise occurring after 2008 (around the financial crisis, Obama’s election, and the rise of smartphones/social media). It may have begun leveling off more recently but remains elevated.[6][7][8]
Note that average Americans are not as extreme as the most engaged partisans or elites, and there remains some overlap/fuzziness on many issues. Polarization feels intense partly because the two sides are roughly equal in size (unlike many other countries).[8]
Affective Polarization (Feelings and Hostility)
This has risen sharply and is particularly concerning. Americans’ warmth toward the opposing party (measured via feeling thermometers) has declined substantially since the late 1970s/1980s, while in-party feelings remain more stable/positive. The gap (affective polarization) roughly doubled in some measures from ~1990 to recent years.[10][10][11]
Historical Context and Caveats
The U.S. has never had a prolonged “golden age” of unity. Intense divisions marked the Founding era (Federalists vs. Jeffersonians), the lead-up to and Civil War (by far the worst, with actual secession and massive death), the Gilded Age, and the 1960s (civil rights, Vietnam, cultural upheaval). Some historians argue today’s substantive divides (while real and covering culture, race, identity, economics, democracy norms) are not as profound as those earlier ones.[1]
What feels distinct now includes:
Globally, the U.S. pattern of rising polarization is not universal.
Citations (14)
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Yes, by most quantitative measures of the modern era (especially since the mid-20th century), political polarization in the United States is worse—or at least higher and more intense—than it has been in recent decades, though the U.S. has experienced deeper or more violent divisions in earlier periods like the Civil…”
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_polarization_in_the_United_States
Backs: “Yes, by most quantitative measures of the modern era (especially since the mid-20th century), political polarization in the United States is worse—or at least higher and more intense—than it has been in recent decades, though the U.S. has experienced deeper or more violent divisions in earlier periods like the Civil…”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Overlap between the parties has essentially vanished (no more “conservative Democrats” or “liberal Republicans” bridging the middle in significant numbers).”
- https://scienceinsights.org/how-political-polarization-has-changed-over-time/
Backs: “Mid-20th century Congresses (roughly 1940s–1960s/70s) were notably less polarized, with more bipartisan coalitions.”
- https://kylesaunders.substack.com/p/watch-congress-evolve-in-two-and
Backs: “Mid-20th century Congresses (roughly 1940s–1960s/70s) were notably less polarized, with more bipartisan coalitions.”
- https://phys.org/news/2026-02-political-division-surged-onward.html
Backs: “It may have begun leveling off more recently but remains elevated.”
- https://www.zmescience.com/science/news-science/us-political-polarization-exploded-since-2008-largely-due-to-a-shift-on-the-left/
Backs: “It may have begun leveling off more recently but remains elevated.”
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “It may have begun leveling off more recently but remains elevated.”
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02251-0
Backs: “Other analyses confirm Democrats and Republicans have grown more distant on fundamental issues over ~30 years, with both moving from the center (at different rates).”
- https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/
Backs: “The gap (affective polarization) roughly doubled in some measures from ~1990 to recent years.”
- https://osf.io/download/rvtsf/
Backs: “The gap (affective polarization) roughly doubled in some measures from ~1990 to recent years.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/
Backs: “Large majorities see the other side as more immoral, dishonest, closed-minded, etc.—levels that have grown significantly even since 2016.”
- https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/us-democrat-republican-partisan-polarization/629925/
Backs: “The U.S. stands out internationally: among OECD countries over recent decades, it has shown one of the largest (or the largest) increases in affective polarization. Many other democracies saw smaller rises or declines.”
- https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/cross-polar.pdf
Backs: “The U.S. stands out internationally: among OECD countries over recent decades, it has shown one of the largest (or the largest) increases in affective polarization. Many other democracies saw smaller rises or declines.”