Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Leans yesSays it is contestedSources conflict

The USC Today headline and Pew describe polarization as at its worst in generations, while another passage in USC Today and Frances Lee's analysis in Knowable say current levels are not unprecedented or may be overstated.

The evidence suggests political polarization—at least in the U.S.—is worse than it's been in recent history, but whether it's the "worst ever" depends heavily on how you measure it and what time frame you compare to. Here's the nuanced picture:

Congressional/Elite Polarization: Yes, Historically High

By the most common quantitative measure (DW-NOMINATE scores, which track how members of Congress vote), ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. That's a very long stretch of relatively low polarization ending.

Today, whereas there used to be many Republicans who were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and vice versa, there is no overlap today—the most liberal Republican is still more conservative than the most conservative Democrat. Pew estimates only about two dozen ideological moderates remain in Congress.

However, some scholars caution against over-interpreting this. Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.

There's also a methodological debate: some measurements suggest more division, but what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become more predictable—that doesn't necessarily mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, according to political scientist Frances Lee. She notes changes in the scope of policy issues over time are often missed—even though measurements show increasing party division on civil rights issues, many of today's votes are narrower in effect than 1960s civil rights legislation.

Public/Mass Polarization: More Complicated

Among ordinary voters, the story is less clear-cut than among politicians:

•Affective polarization (how much people dislike the opposing party) does appear to be at a modern high. Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive than at any point in recent history, driven by growing contempt that many Republicans and Democrats have for the opposing party—sentiments that today are broader and deeper than in the recent past.

•Internationally, the U.S. stands out. Finkel et al. argue that the state of U.S. affective polarization is exceptional, with the U.S. having suffered the largest increase in affective polarization over the last 40 years compared to 12 OECD countries.

•But ideological polarization among ordinary citizens is less dramatic than the elite trend suggests. For much of the second half of the 20th century, most people were not particularly stable in their ideological views, so ideological polarization was not as dramatic among the people as it was among their elected leaders. And even now, the general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past, with many policies having bipartisan support.

•Globally, ideological polarization does not appear to have increased amongst the mass public at a global scale—this is in contrast to the trend observed in the United States, where growing ideological polarization is now well documented.

A Perception Gap

Interestingly, some researchers argue the feeling of polarization exceeds the reality. Cambridge researcher De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is, even while acknowledging that political groups have moved further apart in recent years.

Bottom Line

•Compared to the mid-20th century (roughly 1940s–1970s, an unusually bipartisan era), yes, polarization is clearly worse—both among politicians and in partisan animosity among voters.

•Compared to the entire American history (including the Civil War/Reconstruction era), it's less clear that today is unprecedented—some scholars see current levels as comparable to, not exceeding, past peaks of division.

•The "gap in feelings" between parties (affective polarization) does appear to be at a genuinely exceptional modern high, both historically and compared to other democracies, even if disagreement on actual policy issues is sometimes overstated.

So the honest answer is: worse than the relatively calm mid-20th century baseline most people compare it to, but not necessarily an all-time historical extreme—and how "polarized" feels can outpace how polarized things actually are on policy substance.

Citations (15)

1usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congressional ideological distance began growing in the 1970s, making Congress more polarized than at any time since Reconstruction.
2dividedwefall.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “Whereas there used to be many Republicans who were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and vice versa, there is no overlap today. T...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: No overlap remains between parties in Congress; the most liberal Republican is more conservative than the most conservative Democrat.
3dividedwefall.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “Pew estimates only about two dozen ideological moderates remain in Congress. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew estimates only about two dozen ideological moderates remain in Congress.
4usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Some political scientists have pointed out that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries todays levels of polarization are n...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Some political scientists say today's polarization is not an alarming anomaly relative to the last two centuries.
5knowablemagazine.orgNews and media
Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “In fact, Lee adds, while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Frances Lee says some measures reflect more predictable politician voting, not necessarily greater policy distance.
6knowablemagazine.orgNews and media
Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity
Source excerpt: “What is often missed, Lee explains, are changes in the scope of policy issues over time. For example, even though measurements show increasing party d...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Changes in policy scope are missed; many modern votes are narrower than 1960s civil rights legislation.
7pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan acrimony is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent ...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Partisan antipathy and ideological division are deeper than at any point in recent history.
8pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “Beyond the rise in ideological consistency, another major element in polarization has been the growing contempt that many Republicans and Democrats ha...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Growing contempt for the opposing party is a major element of polarization.
9pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center
Source excerpt: “But today, these sentiments are broader and deeper than in the recent past.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Current partisan sentiments are broader and deeper than in the recent past.
10arxiv.orgAcademic
Towards global equity in political polarization research
Source excerpt: “argue that the state of U.S. affective polarization is exceptional, with the U.S. having suffered the largest increase in affective polarization over ...”
attribution, official document, points to yes. Claim: Finkel et al. argue US affective polarization is exceptional, with the largest increase among 12 OECD countries over 40 years.
11dividedwefall.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in America: A Historical Analysis | Divided We Fall
Source excerpt: “To be sure, many individuals felt a close attachment to and consistently supported a particular political party, but for much of the second half of th...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: For much of the late 20th century, people's ideological views were unstable, so mass ideological polarization was less dramatic than elite polarization.
12facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Political Polarization in the United States | Facing History & Ourselves
Source excerpt: “In addition, the general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past. Many policies have bipartisan support, or support from members ...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: The general public is less divided on a range of issues than in the past, with many policies bipartisan.
13arxiv.orgAcademic
Towards global equity in political polarization research
Source excerpt: “However, at a global scale, ideological polarization does not appear to have increased amongst the mass public ([6], SM). This is in contrast to the t...”
evidence, official document, neutral. Claim: Globally, mass ideological polarization has not increased, in contrast to the United States.
14cam.ac.ukAcademic
Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: “· However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. ”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: De-Wit argues US polarization can feel much worse than it is.
15cam.ac.ukAcademic
Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards | University of Cambridge
Source excerpt: ““Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions ... Dr David Young said: “In the past, someone with left-wing views o...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, even as the researcher acknowledges perception may exceed reality.