Global affairs

Is China a threat to US interests?

Position tracked against: “China is a threat to US interests.”

All datesLast 30 daysLast 7 days

How do chatbots’ citation patterns change over time?

Share of answers with a citation, each day.

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 23Oct 25Oct 27Oct 29GPT-5, Oct 23: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 24: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 25: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 26: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 27: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 28: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 29: 0% (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 30: 0% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 23: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 24: 0% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 25: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 26: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 27: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 28: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 29: 100% (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 30: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 23: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 24: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 25: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 26: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 27: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 28: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 29: 100% (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 30: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 23: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 24: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 25: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 26: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 27: 0% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 28: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 29: 100% (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 30: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 23: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 24: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 25: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 26: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 27: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 28: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 29: 100% (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 30: 100% (n = 1)
GPT-5Claude Sonnet 5Gemini 3.5 FlashGrok 4.5Muse Spark 1.2
Data

Position over time

Average position each day on one yes-or-no question (+1 yes, −1 no).

-1.00-0.500.00+0.50+1.00Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30GPT-5, Oct 27: +0.50 (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 28: +0.50 (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 29: +0.50 (n = 1)GPT-5, Oct 30: +0.50 (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 27: +0.50 (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 28: +0.50 (n = 1)Claude Sonnet 5, Oct 29: +0.50 (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 27: 0.00 (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 28: 0.00 (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 29: +0.50 (n = 1)Gemini 3.5 Flash, Oct 30: +0.50 (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 27: +1.00 (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 28: +1.00 (n = 1)Grok 4.5, Oct 29: +1.00 (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 27: +1.00 (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 28: +0.50 (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 29: +0.50 (n = 1)Muse Spark 1.2, Oct 30: +0.50 (n = 1)
GPT-5Claude Sonnet 5Gemini 3.5 FlashGrok 4.5Muse Spark 1.2

China is a threat to US interests.

Data

How often do chatbots cite external sources?

Share of answers with at least one link/citation.

Data

Most-cited websites

Domains by number of citations.

csis.org13
Nonprofits and think tanks
cisa.gov12
Government
brookings.edu11
Nonprofits and think tanks
ngaus.org10
Nonprofits and think tanks
senate.gov10
Government
gao.gov9
Government
defense.gov8
Government
heritage.org8
Nonprofits and think tanks
pewresearch.org7
Nonprofits and think tanks
odni.gov7
Government
moderndiplomacy.eu7
News and media
cfr.org6
Nonprofits and think tanks
aljazeera.com6
News and media
independent.org6
Nonprofits and think tanks
reuters.com6
News and media
rand.org5
Nonprofits and think tanks
baidu.com5
Not yet classified
scmp.com5
News and media
editorialge.com5
Not yet classified
dni.gov5
Government
Data

What kinds of sources do chatbots use?

Share of each chatbot’s citations by type of publisher.

Claude Sonnet 5101
19%
22%
30%
22%
Gemini 3.5 Flash88
18%
22%
26%
10%
13%
Grok 4.570
31%
20%
43%
Muse Spark 1.222
9%
27%
14%
32%
News and mediaEncyclopedias and referenceAcademicCommercial contentGovernmentNonprofits and think tanksCompaniesSocial media and videoForums and Q&ABlogs and newslettersLow provenanceNot yet classified
Data

Which way the sources point

On yes-or-no questions, whether what each citation backs points to yes, to no, or neither.

Gemini 3.5 Flash51
63%
18%
20%
Grok 4.523
70%
22%
Points to yesNeutralPoints to no
Data

Read every answer to this question