Is Donald Trump improving the lives of Americans?

Short answer: it’s mixed, and it depends on which outcomes you care about.

Since Donald Trump’s second term began on January 20, 2025, here’s where key, people-centered indicators stand as of late October 2026:

What’s improved or relatively strong

•Overall growth: The economy expanded at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3 2026, supported by consumer spending and business investment, including in AI-related categories.[1]

•Jobs level: Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, a historically low rate by long-run standards, though payroll gains have slowed.[2]

•Violent crime: Newly released FBI/BJS data show a large drop in 2025—violent crime fell about 9% (FBI) to 11% (BJS) versus 2024, the biggest year-to-year decline in the FBI’s estimation series.[3]

•Border encounters: CBP’s public dashboards show far lower monthly encounter volumes in FY2026 than the record levels seen in FY2023–FY2024; multiple summaries of the same CBP files put FY2026 totals under 0.4 million, down roughly 45% from FY2025. (Cause is debated, but the volume is much lower.)[4]

What’s worse or weighing on households

•Cost of living: Inflation re-accelerated to 3.7% year over year in September 2026, with energy up sharply; gasoline prices rose 34% vs. a year earlier. The BLS notes gas alone accounted for over half of the month’s CPI increase.[5]

•Gas and mortgages: The national average gas price is about $4.20 per gallon (Oct 30, 2026). The average 30‑year mortgage rate is roughly 7.3% (week of Oct 22), keeping housing affordability tight.[6]

•Real pay: After adjusting for inflation, average weekly earnings dipped in September and have been roughly flat on net since early 2025; the Employment Cost Index shows private‑sector compensation up 3.4% over the past year, below headline inflation.[7]

•Housing activity: Existing‑home sales remain subdued, around a 3.99 million annual pace in September; inventories are improving a bit, but higher rates keep demand soft.[8]

•Federal deficit: The FY2026 deficit was about $2.0 trillion, larger than FY2025, adding to long‑term debt concerns.[9]

Policy context that may be shaping these outcomes (without claiming sole causation)

•Immigration enforcement: The administration reinstated the Migrant Protection Protocols (“Remain in Mexico”) and issued border EOs that tightened asylum access; several elements have faced court challenges. These moves align with the sharp decline in encounters, though other factors (Mexico’s enforcement, seasonal patterns, global flows) also matter.[10]

•Trade and prices: New or expanded tariffs rolled out in 2025–2026 can lift certain domestic prices while protecting targeted industries; details and measured effects vary and are still being studied.[11]

Bottom line

•If you prioritize lower violent crime and fewer border crossings, the data since 2025 point to improvement.[3]

•If you prioritize day‑to‑day affordability—gas, mortgages, and whether pay is outpacing prices—many households are still feeling squeezed in 2026 even with solid headline growth and low unemployment.[5]

If you tell me which areas matter most to you (jobs, prices, housing, safety, immigration, debt, etc.), I can dig in further with the most relevant numbers for your situation.

Citations (11)

1bea.govGovernment
GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
Backs: “The economy expanded at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3 2026, supported by consumer spending and business investment, including in AI-related categories.”
2bls.govGovernment
Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026, a historically low rate by long-run standards, though payroll gains have slowed.”
3fbi.govGovernment
Violent Crime Falls at Historic Rate, New FBI Data Show — FBI
Backs: “Newly released FBI/BJS data show a large drop in 2025—violent crime fell about 9% (FBI) to 11% (BJS) versus 2024, the biggest year-to-year decline in the FBI’s estimation series.”
4cbp.govGovernment
Workbook: CBP Nationwide Encounters AUGFY26
Backs: “CBP’s public dashboards show far lower monthly encounter volumes in FY2026 than the record levels seen in FY2023–FY2024; multiple summaries of the same CBP files put FY2026 totals under 0.4 million, down roughly 45% from FY2025. (Cause is debated, but the volume is much lower.)”
5bls.govGovernment
Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “The BLS notes gas alone accounted for over half of the month’s CPI increase.”
6aaa.comNonprofits and think tanks
AAA Fuel Prices
Backs: “The average 30‑year mortgage rate is roughly 7.3% (week of Oct 22), keeping housing affordability tight.”
7bls.govGovernment
Real Earnings News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “After adjusting for inflation, average weekly earnings dipped in September and have been roughly flat on net since early 2025; the Employment Cost Index shows private‑sector compensation up 3.4% over the past year, below headline inflation.”
8nar.realtorNonprofits and think tanks
Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September, According to NAR Report
Backs: “Existing‑home sales remain subdued, around a 3.99 million annual pace in September; inventories are improving a bit, but higher rates keep demand soft.”
9cbo.govGovernment
Monthly Budget Review: September 2026 | Congressional Budget Office
Backs: “The FY2026 deficit was about $2.0 trillion, larger than FY2025, adding to long‑term debt concerns.”
10clearinghouse.netNonprofits and think tanks
EO 14165 - Securing Our Borders (President Donald Trump) | Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse
Backs: “These moves align with the sharp decline in encounters, though other factors (Mexico’s enforcement, seasonal patterns, global flows) also matter.”
11congress.govGovernment
Presidential 2025 Tariff Actions: Timeline and
Backs: “New or expanded tariffs rolled out in 2025–2026 can lift certain domestic prices while protecting targeted industries; details and measured effects vary and are still being studied.”