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Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

To answer whether political polarization is "worse" than in the past, political scientists and historians look at different eras and distinguish between different types of polarization.

The short answer is yes, political polarization is significantly worse than it has been in modern history (the last 50 to 70 years). In fact, legislative polarization in the U.S. Congress is at its highest level since the Reconstruction Era of the late 1870s.

However, today's polarization is not yet as severe as the ultimate breakdown in American history: the decade leading up to the Civil War (the 1850s), which resulted in armed conflict and the secession of states.

To understand how today's political environment compares to the past, it helps to break it down into several key areas.


1. The Two Types of Polarization: Ideological vs. Affective

Researchers divide polarization into two main categories:

•Ideological Polarization (What people believe): This is the distance between the actual policy positions of the left and right. A landmark study by the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked U.S. polarization over four decades and found that divisions on political and social issues increased by 64% between 1988 and 2024, with almost all of that rise occurring after 2008.
•Affective Polarization (How people feel): This is the degree of dislike, distrust, and hostility toward members of the opposing political party. Research from Stanford and Brown University shows that affective polarization has risen more rapidly in the U.S. than in other major democracies (such as Canada, the UK, Australia, and Germany). According to Pew Research, the share of partisans who view the opposing party as "immoral" or a threat to the nation's well-being has more than doubled over the last few decades.

2. How Today Compares to Past Eras

The Mid-20th Century (The Low-Polarization Era)

Many people compare today's politics to the mid-20th century (the 1950s through the 1970s), which they remember as a time of bipartisanship and compromise. In this era, polarization was indeed very low. This was because the political parties were not yet "sorted". The Democratic Party contained both progressive northern liberals and highly conservative southern Democrats. The Republican Party had both conservative westerners and moderate-to-liberal northeasterners. Because both parties had ideological overlaps, cross-party coalitions were common, and congressional gridlock was rarer.

The Gilded Age & Reconstruction (Late 19th Century)

By analyzing historical congressional voting patterns (using a system called NOMINATE scores), political scientists have found that Congress is currently more divided than at any point since the late 1870s. During the Gilded Age, the parties were deeply and rigidly divided along regional lines (the Republican North vs. the Democratic South) and economic lines (urban industrial interests vs. agrarian populists). The level of legislative gridlock and vitriol in the late 1800s was very similar to what we see today.

The Civil War Era (1850s–1860s)

This remains the absolute peak of political polarization in U.S. history. In the 1850s, the political system broke down entirely because of the issue of slavery. Members of Congress routinely carried weapons onto the House and Senate floors, and in 1856, Representative Preston Brooks physically beat Senator Charles Sumner unconscious on the Senate floor. While today's political rhetoric is highly volatile, it has not yet resulted in the institutional collapse, formal state secessions, or mass-scale warfare of the 1860s.


3. Why Today's Polarization Feels Different

While today's division might not be a historical first, it has unique, modern characteristics that make it feel uniquely intense:

•Mega-Identity "Sorting": In the past, a person’s political party was just one of many identities. Today, political parties have "sorted" so tightly that they align with other deeply personal identities: geography (urban vs. rural), religion (secular vs. traditional/evangelical), race, and education. When political disagreements are tied to a person's cultural, spiritual, and social identity, compromise starts to feel like a betrayal of who they are.
•The Media Ecosystem: Unlike the late 19th century, when partisan newspapers dominated local markets, today's 24-hour cable news cycles, internet echo chambers, and social media algorithms are uniquely designed to maximize engagement through outrage. Algorithms boost extreme and divisive content, creating "media bubbles" where people rarely encounter the other side's actual arguments, only the most extreme caricatures of them.
•The Death of the Moderate: In Congress and the electorate, political moderates have almost completely vanished. According to Pew Research, in 1994, the average Republican was more conservative than 70% of Democrats. By 2014, that number had risen to 94%. Today, there is virtually no ideological overlap between the two parties in Congress, making bipartisan legislation incredibly difficult to pass.

Summary

If you are comparing today to the lifetime of anyone alive today, political polarization is at an all-time high. The level of personal animosity between everyday Democrats and Republicans is historically severe, and Congress is more divided than it has been in roughly 150 years. However, viewed through the lens of the entire span of American history, we are living through a recurring historical cycle—one that is incredibly tense, but still short of the institutional collapse of the 1860s.

Citations (12)

  1. 1cam.ac.ukAcademic
    cam.ac.uk

    Backs: “The short answer is yes, political polarization is significantly worse than it has been in modern history (the last 50 to 70 years). In fact, legislative polarization in the U.S.”

  2. 2usc.eduAcademic
    usc.edu

    Backs: “The short answer is yes, political polarization is significantly worse than it has been in modern history (the last 50 to 70 years). In fact, legislative polarization in the U.S.”

  3. 3wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
    wikipedia.org

    Backs: “However, today's polarization is not yet as severe as the ultimate breakdown in American history: the decade leading up to the Civil War (the 1850s), which resulted in armed conflict and the secession of states.”

  4. 4democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    democracyproject.org

    Backs: “However, today's polarization is not yet as severe as the ultimate breakdown in American history: the decade leading up to the Civil War (the 1850s), which resulted in armed conflict and the secession of states.”

  5. 5brown.eduAcademic
    brown.edu

    Backs: “Research from Stanford and Brown University shows that affective polarization has risen more rapidly in the U.S. than in other major democracies (such as Canada, the UK, Australia, and Germany). According to Pew Research, the share of partisans who view the opposing party as "immoral" or a threat to the nation's…”

  6. 6syr.eduAcademic
    syr.edu

    Backs: “According to Pew Research, the share of partisans who view the opposing party as "immoral" or a threat to the nation's well-being has more than doubled over the last few decades.”

  7. 7cam.ac.ukAcademic
    cam.ac.uk

    Backs: “This was because the political parties were not yet "sorted". The Democratic Party contained both progressive northern liberals and highly conservative southern Democrats.”

  8. 8brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
    brookings.edu

    Backs: “Because both parties had ideological overlaps, cross-party coalitions were common, and congressional gridlock was rarer.”

  9. 9wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
    wikipedia.org

    Backs: “While today's political rhetoric is highly volatile, it has not yet resulted in the institutional collapse, formal state secessions, or mass-scale warfare of the 1860s.”

  10. 10stanford.eduAcademic
    stanford.edu

    Backs: “When political disagreements are tied to a person's cultural, spiritual, and social identity, compromise starts to feel like a betrayal of who they are. The Media Ecosystem: Unlike the late 19th century, when partisan newspapers dominated local markets, today's 24-hour cable news cycles, internet echo chambers, and…”

  11. 11facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    facinghistory.org

    Backs: “The Media Ecosystem: Unlike the late 19th century, when partisan newspapers dominated local markets, today's 24-hour cable news cycles, internet echo chambers, and social media algorithms are uniquely designed to maximize engagement through outrage. Algorithms boost extreme and divisive content, creating "media…”

  12. 12usc.eduAcademic
    usc.edu

    Backs: “However, viewed through the lens of the entire span of American history, we are living through a recurring historical cycle—one that is incredibly tense, but still short of the institutional collapse of the 1860s. 1.”