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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 31, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Yes, by most measures, political polarization—especially in the U.S.—is more severe now than it has been in decades, though the picture is nuanced depending on what type of polarization you're measuring.

The U.S. is at or near historic highs

Congressional/elite polarization: On average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. Pew's analysis found both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive, with now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

Public ideological sorting: Gallup data shows in 2024, the shares of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats identifying as liberal both reached record highs, while the percentage of Americans identifying as moderate has declined from an average of 43% in 1992 to 34% in 2024.

Affective polarization (how much people dislike the other side) has risen even more sharply than policy disagreement. One tracker notes the share of Republicans who view Democrats as "very unfavorable" has risen from 17% in 1994 to 62% in 2024, and the mirror image for Democrats is nearly identical. A recent Cambridge study found almost all the rise in US polarisation over political issues since the eighties occurred from 2008 onwards, with far more Americans now adopting party and ideological labels in line with their opinions than in the late 1980s. That same research found divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all this coming after 2008.

Geographic sorting has compounded this: in 1992, 39% of Americans lived in "landslide counties" where one presidential candidate won by 20+ percentage points; by 2024, 57% did, meaning fewer Americans have regular social contact with the opposing party.

Important caveats — it's not uniformly "worse"

Several researchers push back on the idea that everything about polarization is at an all-time peak:

1.Policy positions aren't necessarily more extreme — just more predictable. Political scientist Frances Lee argues that politicians aren't necessarily farther apart on policy issues than in the past; what measurements often show is that voting behavior has become more predictable, since today's politicians tend to vote strictly with their party unlike the bipartisan support seen for 1964 Civil Rights legislation.
2."Latent" value divisions have been stable — Stanford research using decades of World Values Survey data found since at least the early 1980s, underlying values-based divisions (mostly moral/religious) have been remarkably stable, with no evidence of latent polarization increasing over time. What's changed is that in 1981 Democrats' and Republicans' average values were almost indistinguishable, but by 2017 they had diverged to align with pre-existing values clusters — rising partisan polarization despite stable latent polarization.
3.Perception gap — Research suggests Americans may be less divided on actual policy than they believe. Other research suggests Americans are less polarized than they think, with significant ideological overlap on policies; ideological polarization is felt most strongly among the most politically engaged, even though Americans remain very emotionally ("affectively") polarized—meaning they simply don't like members of the other party. A Cambridge researcher similarly argued polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is, since political groups have moved further apart but divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans aren't split into entirely opposing tribes on issues.

It's a global trend, not just American

The U.S. isn't alone, though it's often cited as an extreme case. A V-Dem-based dataset indicates the global population-weighted Political Polarization Index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, with the United States showing a sustained increase to 2.30 over the past three years. Brown University research similarly found that Americans' feelings toward members of the other political party have worsened over time faster than those of residents of European and other prominent democracies, though polarization has also risen in Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland (to a lesser extent), while it actually decreased in the UK, Australia, Germany, Norway and Sweden.

Bottom line

By nearly every measure researchers track—legislative voting patterns, partisan self-identification, "very unfavorable" views of the opposing party, and geographic self-sorting—polarization (particularly affective polarization, the emotional dislike of the other side) is higher than at almost any point in modern recorded history, with most of the acceleration happening since 2008. However, scholars caution that underlying policy preferences and values haven't necessarily become more extreme; rather, people have sorted more cleanly into partisan "teams" that now track pre-existing divides more tightly than before, and ordinary citizens often have more common ground than the loudest partisan voices suggest.

Citations (18)

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    Source excerpt: “Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versu...”

  2. 2gallup.comCompanies
    U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically

    Source excerpt: “In 2024, the shares of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats identifying as liberal both reached record highs. ”

  3. 3gallup.comCompanies
    U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically

    Source excerpt: “Most notably, the percentage of Americans identifying as moderate has declined from an average of 43% in 1992 to 34% in 2024, while conservatism has b...”

  4. 4uspollingdata.comData and tools
    Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?

    Source excerpt: “On affective measures, polarization is at historic highs: the share of Republicans who view Democrats as "very unfavorable" has risen from 17% in 1994...”

  5. Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards, study suggests | EurekAlert!

    Source excerpt: “Almost all the rise in US polarisation over political issues since the eighties occurred from 2008 onwards, a new study suggests. Far more Americans n...”

  6. 6phys.orgNews and mediaquality 0.85
    Political division in the US surged from 2008 onward, study suggests

    Source excerpt: “Divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all this coming after 2008, according ...”

  7. 7uspollingdata.comData and tools
    Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?

    Source excerpt: “In 1992, 39% of Americans lived in "landslide counties" where one presidential candidate won by 20+ percentage points. By 2024, 57% did. ”

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    Divided we stand: The rise of political animosity

    Source excerpt: “However, that doesn’t mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past, says Frances Lee, a political scientist now at Princeton U...”

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    Source excerpt: “In fact, Lee adds, while some measurements suggest more division, what they actually show is simply that the voting behavior of politicians has become...”

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    Source excerpt: “Since at least the early 1980s, the latent values-based clusters have been divided mostly along moral and religious values, and the level of disagreem...”

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    Source excerpt: “Using the same model, Desmet shows that in 1981, the average value positions of Democrats and Republicans were almost indistinguishable, nowhere close...”

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    Source excerpt: “Other research suggests that Americans are less polarized than they think, and that there is "significant ideological overlap and agreement on policie...”

  13. 13cam.ac.ukAcademic
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    Source excerpt: “· However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. “Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but t...”

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    Source excerpt: ““Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tr...”

  15. 15statbase.orgData and tools
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    Source excerpt: “The global population-weighted V-Dem Political Polarization Index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, standing at 0.90, which was 2.81% high...”

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    Political polarization score | United States (1900−2025) − Data, Charts & Analysis

    Source excerpt: “Over the past three years, the continent has demonstrated divergent trajectories: the United States has shown a sustained increase to 2.30, Brazil rec...”

  17. 17brown.eduAcademic
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    Source excerpt: “Americans’ feelings toward members of the other political party have worsened over time faster than those of residents of European and other prominent...”

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    U.S. is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds | Brown University

    Source excerpt: “The researchers found that polarization had also risen in Canada, New Zealand and Switzerland in the last 40 years, but to a lesser extent. In the U.K...”