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Muse Spark 1.2Oct 31, 2026meta/muse-spark-1.2-20260805

What is the current state of US politics?

I'll pull the latest picture of US politics for you.

As of October 31, 2026, the state of US politics is defined by unified Republican control under a historically unpopular president heading into high-stakes midterm elections:

1. Federal Government Control

With President Donald Trump in the White House, Republicans have held unified control of the federal government since January 2025.

Heading into the November 3, 2026 midterms, Republicans control both chambers of Congress:

•Senate: 53-47 Republican majority
•House: 218 Republicans against 214 Democrats and one independent who typically sides with the GOP. Other counts note the House at 218-214 alongside two vacancies and an independent who caucuses with Republicans.

Because most federal policy requires Congressional approval, the November 3 elections will determine how freely President Donald Trump can pursue his domestic and foreign priorities.

2. The 2026 Midterms as Referendum

Tens of millions of Americans will vote on November 3 for all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. President Donald Trump now faces the first, and last, nationwide electoral test of his second term.

Forecasters currently view the elections as highly competitive:

•Nonpartisan forecasters are projecting a strong likelihood that Democrats will flip control of the U.S. House of Representatives and a competitive environment in the U.S. Senate where a Democratic majority is also within reach.
•As of October 21, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 91% chance of winning the House and a 66% chance of winning the Senate. Other prediction markets assign a 90% probability to Democrats winning the House and 63% to taking the Senate.
•According to the Cook Political Report, published on October 23, 2026, Democrats are now "favored outright" to win the 218 seats required.
•With one week remaining before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Democrats appear increasingly likely to take control of the House, while the Senate remains closely contested.

In the House, Democrats need a net gain of just three to four seats to retake control, with one analysis putting the needed gain at four seats to secure control.

3. Presidential Approval and Public Mood

President Trump's approval is at or near record lows.

•The New York Times/Siena national survey, published on October 21, puts President Donald Trump's job approval at just 36%, with 59% disapproving. Another report noted Trump's approval sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterms.
•The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll put approval at 39%, a three-point drop from the previous month. His job approval is highest on immigration (44%) and fighting crime in America's cities (44%), and lowest on inflation (33%), tariffs and trade policy (34%), and the economy (34%).
•An FT/Focaldata poll surveyed 2,275 registered voters in early October and found 34% approved of Trump’s performance and 59% disapproved, with only 25% approving of his handling of the economy.

Generic ballot polling also favors Democrats:

•Among likely voters, Democrats lead Republicans by eight percentage points in the generic congressional ballot.
•The New York Times/Siena survey shows an even wider Democratic advantage: 52% to 41%, an eleven-point lead.

Congressional approval is historically low. A Gallup poll found that only 14% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest approval rating recorded immediately before a midterm election since 1974. Only 15% of registered voters believe most members of Congress deserve reelection.

The 2026 midterm elections are taking place amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and growing negativity about national economic conditions.

4. Top Issues

Three issues are defining the election: Donald Trump's record-low popularity, voter frustration over the cost of living and a fierce immigration fight.

a) Economy / Cost of Living: Voters have consistently ranked the cost of living as the top issue this election cycle. Eighty-five percent of voters say the economy is one of the most important issues when considering their vote, and 84% say the same about the cost of living.
Overall inflation in August was at 3.4 per cent, but the cost of living has gone up substantially. Gas prices have spiked since the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in February, with the national average price of gas at $4.28 — $1.20 higher than a year ago. Majorities now disapprove of the president’s performance on inflation, the economy, foreign policy and immigration.

b) Immigration: Forty-five percent say immigration and crime are among the most important issues. Immigration remains a flashpoint, including debates over enforcement at the southwest border.

c) Donald Trump himself and Foreign Policy: Economic worries typically dominate, but four foreign policy issues — the Iran war, U.S. trade policy, artificial intelligence (AI), and immigration — could be affecting voter perception. Only 13% of Americans mention the Iran War, war generally, foreign policy, national security, international issues, or terrorism as the most important issue, but pluralities across the political spectrum say inflation and the cost of living are most important to their votes (37% overall), followed by government corruption (19%).

5. Polarization and Democratic Health

Political polarization is perceived to be worsening: 70% agreed polarization in the U.S. has worsened during the past two years.

Analysts describe the current dynamic as "affective polarization" — dislike-fueled animosity between the parties. Researchers note much of today's polarization is perceived rather than real, with Americans overestimating how extreme, hostile and dangerous the other side is.

Other systemic concerns cited ahead of the election include:

•Gerrymandering of Congressional maps after calls from President Trump to help the GOP hold the House
•Efforts to disenfranchise voters and potential challenges to certifying elections
•The Trump administration's demand for state voter roll data and interference with mail-in voting
•Pressure on Congress to reassert constitutional authority over the Department of Defense amid expanded executive control

A record-high 45% of U.S. adults identified as political independents in 2025, with 21% of registered voters unhappy with both parties.

6. Recent Government Functioning

The current Congress follows the longest government shutdown in U.S. history at 43 days, from October 1 to November 12, 2025, which ended when President Donald Trump signed a stopgap funding bill. That bill funded the government through January 30, 2026. A subsequent funding extension, H.R. 6500, was signed on September 2, 2026 and funds federal agencies through Dec. 11, 2026

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