Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago; they are higher on average, though the increase has moderated for many goods (especially groceries), some individual items are cheaper or unchanged, and retailers have used discounts/promotions.[1]

Latest Official Data (as of September 2026)

•Overall Consumer Price Index (CPI): Up 3.7% year-over-year (YoY). This is the broad measure of consumer prices. Month-over-month it rose 0.6% in September, driven significantly by energy.[2]

•Core CPI (excluding food and energy): Up 2.6% YoY.[2]

•Food: Up 2.5% YoY overall. Food-at-home (groceries/supermarkets) rose more modestly at about 1.8% YoY and was roughly flat or slightly down month-over-month in recent readings. Food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose faster, around 3.5%.[1]

•Energy: Up sharply (~20% YoY), with gasoline up over 30% in some reports, which affects related store costs and consumer budgets.[2]

•Other categories like apparel, recreation, and used vehicles also contributed to increases.[3]

Prices have not fallen in aggregate. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, though it is far below the 2021–2022 peaks. Cumulative prices are substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels (often 20%+ for many baskets over 5 years).[4]

Store- and Retailer-Specific Trends

•Goods vs. services: Prices for many goods (including some retail merchandise) have seen more moderation or deflationary pressure at times compared to services (shelter, healthcare, etc.). In 2024, goods prices were often flat to slightly down YoY in parts of the year, helped by retailer actions.[5]

•Retailer price cuts and promotions: In 2024 especially, major chains like Walmart, Target, Aldi, and others announced thousands of price rollbacks on groceries, household items, and discretionary goods to attract shoppers amid cooling demand. This contributed to slower grocery inflation (hovering near 1% for stretches) and more discounts/affordable assortments. Similar promotional activity has continued.[6]

•Item-level examples (from tracking like NPR’s Walmart basket studies, more reflective of 2024 into early 2025 patterns): Roughly half of tracked items stayed the same price YoY; some (bananas, certain meats/seafood, produce) fell; others (eggs due to avian flu, some proteins, coffee, detergent) rose. Averages for such baskets were often near-flat or up <1% in calmer periods, but this varies by category and time. Shrinkflation (smaller packages at similar prices) has also occurred.[4]

•Recent retailer basket comparisons (e.g., Walmart, Kroger) in some analyses have shown food baskets roughly flat to slightly down/up low-single digits YoY in specific markets, but this does not reverse the broader CPI trend.[7]

Context and Caveats

•Not uniform: Experiences vary by store (discount vs. premium), location, category (produce/meat often more volatile; eggs/energy-sensitive items can spike), and shopping habits (private label, sales, bulk). Consumers may feel prices are “still high” due to the large cumulative rise since 2019–2021, even if the pace of increase has slowed (“sticky” high levels).[4]

•2024 was a relative relief year for many store prices due to disinflation, supply improvements, and aggressive retailer discounting after the post-pandemic surge. By 2025–2026, inflation reaccelerated somewhat (partly energy-driven), so the YoY comparison now shows clearer net increases.[8]

•Other factors: Wholesale costs, tariffs/trade, labor, weather/commodity shocks (e.g., avian flu), and consumer pullback influence retail pricing. Real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power depends on wages too.

Bottom line: Store prices (especially groceries and goods) have risen more slowly than overall inflation or services in recent periods, with frequent discounts making some shopping cheaper than peak inflation eras. However, they are not lower on average than a year ago—most broad measures show modest-to-moderate increases. Check current local ads, unit prices, and specific categories for the best deals, as variation is high. For the absolute latest figures, refer to BLS CPI releases.

Citations (8)

1foodworldnews.comNews and media
https://www.foodworldnews.com/articles/81703/20261021/grocery-inflation-slows-18-while-restaurant-prices-climb-35-what-gap-means-your-food-budget.htm
Backs: “No, overall prices in stores are generally not lower than a year ago; they are higher on average, though the increase has moderated for many goods (especially groceries), some individual items are cheaper or unchanged, and retailers have used discounts/promotions.”
2cnbc.comNews and mediaquality 0.85
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/cpi-inflation-report-september-2026.html
Backs: “Month-over-month it rose 0.6% in September, driven significantly by energy.”
3tinyurl.comNot yet classified
https://tinyurl.com/5a6c9pbv
Backs: “Other categories like apparel, recreation, and used vehicles also contributed to increases.”
4npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “Cumulative prices are substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels (often 20%+ for many baskets over 5 years).”
5investopedia.comCommercial contentquality 0.93
https://www.investopedia.com/shoppers-could-be-seeing-lower-prices-this-holiday-season-8729096
Backs: “In 2024, goods prices were often flat to slightly down YoY in parts of the year, helped by retailer actions.”
6retailbrew.comNews and media
https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2024/12/18/2024-was-the-year-of-discounts-price-cuts-and-more-affordable-assortments
Backs: “This contributed to slower grocery inflation (hovering near 1% for stretches) and more discounts/affordable assortments. Similar promotional activity has continued.”
7ml.comNot yet classified
https://research1.ml.com/C/?q=Sbwcuk8jlFq5IXprt5GpHg
Backs: “Recent retailer basket comparisons (e.g., Walmart, Kroger) in some analyses have shown food baskets roughly flat to slightly down/up low-single digits YoY in specific markets, but this does not reverse the broader CPI trend.”
8alternativeinsidernews.comNot yet classified
https://www.alternativeinsidernews.com/inflation/inflation-rate-2026
Backs: “By 2025–2026, inflation reaccelerated somewhat (partly energy-driven), so the YoY comparison now shows clearer net increases.”