Short answer: Very likely, yes—especially in the near to medium term. Stopping immigration reduces labor-force growth immediately, which tightens hiring and creates shortages in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant workers. Over time, higher wages, training, and automation can offset some gaps, but demographics make full replacement hard in many countries.
Why shortages would appear
•Demographics: Most rich countries are aging and have below‑replacement fertility. Without immigrants, the working‑age population shrinks, tightening labor supply.
•Skill and job mix: Immigrants disproportionately fill both hard‑to‑hire roles (e.g., agriculture, construction, hospitality, home health/eldercare, food processing, cleaning) and certain high‑skill jobs (e.g., some STEM and healthcare specialties). Many of these have long training pipelines or location/shift requirements natives avoid.
•Geographic mismatch: Immigrants often move to where jobs are; natives move less, so local shortages persist.
•Training lags: Even if wages rise, you can’t quickly create nurses, welders, or electricians; credentials and experience take time.
•Demand effects: Immigrants also consume goods and services and start businesses, supporting local economies. Removing them can reduce supply capacity faster than it reduces demand.
What would happen instead of (or alongside) shortages
•Wages would rise in affected occupations; firms would pass some costs to prices, reduce output, or automate/offshore where possible.
•Participation could increase among native-born workers if barriers fall (childcare, transportation, disability accommodations), but this rarely fully offsets large lost inflows.
•Over a long horizon, technology and productivity gains can ease pressure, but many in‑person services (eldercare, food service, construction) are hard to automate fully.
When shortages might be less severe
•During deep recessions with slack labor markets.
•If major policy changes quickly expand domestic labor supply (e.g., paid childcare, training subsidies, re‑entry programs, housing near jobs, licensing reform) and/or reduce labor demand.
Bottom line: Halting immigration would almost certainly create or worsen labor shortages in key sectors for years. The extent depends on the country’s age structure, how quickly employers raise pay and improve conditions, and how aggressively governments and firms invest in training, productivity, and participation.