What is the current state of US politics?

The Current State of US Politics (Late October 2026)

The dominant story right now is the 2026 midterm elections, just days away on November 3, with control of both the House and Senate at stake.

Trump's Political Standing is Weak

President Trump is entering the midterms in a historically weak position. 60.1% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 37.3% who approve, putting his net approval rating at -22.8%, near his all-time low. Trump has the second lowest approval rating heading into the midterms since 1946, behind only Harry Truman—even lower than George W. Bush's in 2006, a year Democrats flipped both chambers.

The economy and cost of living are the top drag on his standing. 73% of American adults in a recent AP-NORC poll disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy—the lowest rating of his two presidencies, and lower than Biden's lowest rating ever. On the key issue, 81% of Americans say Trump's tariffs have raised the cost of living, including 94% of Democrats, 86% of Independents, and 62% of Republicans.

Democrats Favored, But History Is Mixed

Polling shows a clear Democratic advantage. The Democratic candidates running for Congress lead Republicans 52%-44% among likely voters nationally, with a 10-point lead among registered voters. Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot—nearly 9 percentage points on average—a margin that has held steady over the last month. Control of the Senate is genuinely competitive: Democrats are consistently leading in Republican-held Texas, Ohio, and Alaska Senate races, while also leading in Georgia, New Hampshire, and Michigan seats they currently hold.

However, Republicans still have resources. The RNC had $125.6 million on hand heading into the stretch, and the Republican Party had $233.4 million in total cash compared to $130.4 million for Democrats. Democrats might not match 2018's 41-seat House flip since red states have redrawn congressional maps to their advantage, but Democrats only need three seats to retake the House.

Key Flashpoints

The Iran War is weighing heavily on the GOP. Frustration over Iran — and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — has stymied the president's agenda as the midterms approach, and Trump has said new strikes on Iran are an option after the midterms, despite initially promising a military campaign lasting only weeks. Several vulnerable GOP Senate candidates are distancing themselves from the war.

Election integrity battles are intensifying. Election lawyers have described administration actions as election subversion, while surveys of political scientists find a consensus the U.S. is transitioning toward illiberal democracy and competitive authoritarianism, citing tactics like mid-decade redistricting and prosecution of opponents. A New York Times analysis found Trump had attacked election integrity on more than 70% of days since returning to office. Courts have been pushing back—a federal judge rejected the Trump administration's bid to require California to separate out mail ballots from roughly 20,000 people it claims are noncitizens.

Public trust is eroding broadly. 62.9% of U.S. adults think the country is on the "wrong track," up nearly twelve points from eighteen months ago, and 89% of people believe there is pervasive corruption within the US government, according to recent polling.

Bottom Line

The U.S. is heading into a midterm election widely expected to be a referendum on Trump, with economic anxiety (inflation, cost of living), war fatigue over Iran, and deepening concerns about democratic norms and election integrity all converging. Democrats enter the final stretch with momentum, though Republicans retain financial advantages and the outcome in several key Senate races remains close.