Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Leans yesSays it is contestedSources conflict

The Pew analysis frames Congress as the most polarized in 50 years, while the USC and SJU sources say polarization is comparable to or below the Civil War era.

Political polarization feels at an all-time high — I'll dig into historical data to see if it truly is worse than past eras.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? Yes, by most modern measures — but not by the longest historical measures.

1. Compared to the last 50-60 years, yes — record highs

Ideological distance in Congress

•A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

•Both parties have moved further away from the ideological center since the early 1970s. Democrats on average have become somewhat more liberal, while Republicans on average have become much more conservative.

•There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

•Using DW-NOMINATE scores that track roll-call votes:

> House Democrats, for example, moved from about -0.31 to -0.38, meaning that over time they've become modestly more liberal on average. House Republicans, by contrast, moved from 0.25 to nearly 0.51, a much bigger increase in the conservative direction.

•That has eliminated ideological overlap. Five decades ago 144 House Republicans were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat and vice versa, but:

> Since 2002, when Republican Rep. Constance Morella of Maryland was defeated for reelection and GOP Rep. Benjamin Gilman of New York retired, there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004, when Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia retired.

Public opinion and affective polarization

•Divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all this coming after 2008, according to a study tracking polarization from the end of the Reagan era to the dawn of Trump's second term.

•Between 2008 and 2020, the United States experienced a relentless increase in "Separation"—the researchers' metric for the distance between the average opinion of the two groups. By 2024, the degree of separation between these two clusters had increased by 64% compared to 1988 levels.

•Pew longitudinal measure of dislike of the other party:

> In 1994, only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016, those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats. By 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party

•Using American National Election Studies feeling thermometer (0 = cold, 100 = warm):

> It plots the difference (affective polarization) between in-party and out-party feelings for Democrats and Republicans from 1964 to 2024. ... It shows that affective polarization declined in the 1960s and 70s but began trending upward thereafter. ... In 1976, average affective polarization equaled 15.69. By 2024, it had reached 49.61.

•That US increase is distinctive internationally. In the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined—the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden, with affect toward other parties decreasing at a rate of 5.6 points per decade (SE = 0.5), nearly three times quicker than any other country in our sample.

Perceptions have followed:
> A new survey finds that 91 percent of local officials say polarization is negatively affecting the country, and in a sharp increase, 41 percent say that polarization is negatively affecting their own communities, up from 30 to 31 percent in previous surveys.

2. Compared to 150+ years of American history, no — the Civil War era was worse

Researchers who use the same NOMINATE data over two centuries find:

> Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

> Because the NOMINATE data generated by James Lo and his co-authors shows that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War, it suggests that there is a huge gulf in the middle that's not being responded to by the two parties

Historian Randall Miller at Saint Joseph's University:

> "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War," he says. "In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress."

Psychologist Keith Payne, speaking to the American Psychological Association, made a similar distinction:

> Well, I don't know—if we compare it to the Civil War, I would say we're probably at the most polarized in some ways than we have been since the Civil War and the aftermath. But whether we're more polarized today than we were say 30 or 40 years ago, depends on whether we're talking about polarization in terms of issues versus polarization in terms of group identities and emotions

That points to an important nuance scholars emphasize:

•Elite vs. mass polarization: Congress and party activists have polarized dramatically. The mass public is more mixed. One literature review notes: The most direct evidence—citizens' positions on public policy issues—shows little or no indication of increased mass polarization over the past two to three decades.

•Ideological vs. affective polarization: Only about 15% of Americans have a coherent, stable ideology across issues; most polarization today is driven by social identity — how warmly we feel toward "our" party and how coldly toward the other — rather than consistent philosophy. That affective dislike has risen much faster than pure issue disagreement.

3. Why it feels worse now than even a few decades ago

1.Vanishing middle and sorting: Geographic and demographic sorting — nearly half of House Republicans now from Southern states, nearly half of House Democrats now Black, Hispanic or Asian/Pacific Islander — plus primary systems and media ecosystems mean there is "no benefit from compromising. We've created a system that reinforces discord".

2.Acceleration since 2008: The Cambridge/Royal Society Open Science study found polarization almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties before surging after 2008.

3.Negative partisanship: You can dislike the other side intensely without being ideologically extreme yourself, which fuels incivility, distrust, and the sense of division even when policy positions overlap.

In short: If "the past" means your parents' or grandparents' adult lives (1950s-1990s) — a period historians now see as unusually bipartisan and low-polarization — then yes, we are far more polarized. If "the past" means the entire sweep of American history including the 1850s-1870s, the 1790s founding era, and the late 19th century, we are back to historically high — but not unprecedented — levels of division, nearing but not exceeding the run-up to the Civil War.

Citations (3)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. Both parties have moved further away from the ideological center since the early 1970s.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Democrats and Republicans in Congress are farther apart ideologically than at any time in the past 50 years, and both parties have moved from the center.
2usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “Compared to 150+ years of American history, no — the Civil War era was worse. Researchers who use the same NOMINATE data over two centuries find: Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the…”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: NOMINATE data show Congress is more polarized than at any time since Reconstruction, comparable to the Civil War era.
3sju.eduAcademic
Are We Really Living in the Most Divisive Time in American History?
Backs: “Historian Randall Miller at Saint Joseph's University: "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War," he says.”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Historian Randall Miller says the most divisive time in American history was the years leading up to the Civil War.