Is China a threat to US interests?

Leans yesSays it is contested

China's challenge to U.S. interests spans security, economic and technology domains — I'll gather current assessments to evaluate the threats.

According to the official assessment of the U.S. government, China is viewed as the primary long-term threat to U.S. interests, though debate continues about the nature and extent of that threat.

Official U.S. View: Yes - The Greatest Long-Term Threat

1. Long-term strategic competitor

•It is not an exaggeration to say China is the greatest long-term threat to the U.S. way of life, according to the DOD policy chief.

•The U.S. Defense Department's 2022 National Defense Strategy identified China as "the overall pacing challenge" while Russia remains an "acute threat".

•"The PRC remains our most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades".

•The 2022 strategy quotes the National Security Strategy: China is "the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order, and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so", and that strategy also identified China as "... the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order, and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so".

Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy, said the scale of China's ambitions includes not only to become the world's largest economy but also to be the world's largest nation in all spheres, including ambitions to have a world-class military.

The 2025 National Security Strategy continued to allude to China, while the 2022 NSS had identified China as the US military's "pacing challenge".

2. Military threat

•The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence identifies China as "the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security,"

•China has the ability to hit the United States with conventional weapons, compromise US infrastructure through cyber attacks, and target its assets in space.

•China is making "steady but uneven" progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan, and Beijing is conducting wide-ranging cyber operations and military operations to project power over Taiwan and assert claims in the South and East China Seas.

•The Defense Department noted China has been using its growing military capabilities "to coerce its neighbors and threaten their interests".

A key objective of the National Defense Strategy is to dissuade the PRC from considering aggression as a viable means of advancing goals that threaten vital U.S. national interests, with the official note that "Conflict with the PRC is neither inevitable nor desirable".

3. Cyber and technological threat

•The intelligence community says China "remains an unparalleled priority" and that China presents "the broadest, most active and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. government and private sector networks".

•The ODNI noted that the PRC remains the most active and persistent cyber threat to the U.S. government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks.

•Its campaign to preposition access on critical infrastructure for attacks during crisis or conflict, tracked as Volt Typhoon, and its compromise of U.S. telecommunications infrastructure, also referred to as Salt Typhoon, demonstrates the growing breadth and depth of the PRC's capabilities.

•If Beijing believed a major conflict was imminent, it could consider aggressive cyber operations against U.S. critical infrastructure and military assets designed to deter U.S. military action by impeding decision-making and interfering with deployment of U.S. forces.

•On technology, China is using an aggressive, whole-of-government approach, combined with state direction of the private sector, to become a global S&T superpower, surpass the United States.

•"China is accelerating its S&T progress through a range of licit and illicit means, to include investments, intellectual property acquisition and theft, cyber operations".

•The assessment notes China almost certainly has a strategy to displace the United States as the world's most influential AI power by 2030, and that China seeks to displace the US as the top AI power by 2030.

4. Economic and international order threat

•Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are challenging U.S. interests in the world by attacking or threatening others in their regions, with asymmetric and conventional hard power tactics and promoting alternative systems to compete with the U.S., primarily in trade, finance, and security.

•The DOD policy chief said it is the way China is challenging this international rules-based order, challenging individual freedoms, free movement of ideas and people, and promoting an authoritarian model that challenges the U.S. way of life.

•China's theft of intellectual property was cited explicitly: "the best proof I can give you that China's leaders recognize that is that they are determined to steal from it".

The U.S. stated it does not seek a confrontational approach, noting "We want to trade. We want to have interactions. But on the other hand, we want to protect our intellectual property" and the rules-based international order.

Public perception reflects this official view: 78% of respondents picked China as the greatest threat to American interests in space.

Counter-Arguments and Alternative Views

Not all analysts agree the threat is existential or inevitable:

•Some analyses conclude the threat is largely unfounded, noting that the U.S. remains superior in power and that both nations are deeply incentivized to avoid conflict due to economic ties.

•This viewpoint contends interdependence as a stabilizer: Deep economic ties create a powerful disincentive for military conflict.

•One former official noted that "interdependence between the US and China is unprecedented in such a way that you cannot reach a strategic consensus for launching a war against the other side".

China itself rejects the U.S. assessment. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the US issues irresponsible and biased reports like this year after year, seeks to promote the false "China threat" narrative.

Summary

From the perspective of successive U.S. administrations, intelligence agencies, and defense planning documents, China is officially described as the most comprehensive military, cyber, technological and geopolitical challenge to U.S. interests and the rules-based order. The challenges span Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, global technology competition including AI and semiconductors, cyber operations against critical infrastructure, intellectual property theft, and efforts to reshape trade and security systems.

However, scholars and some policymakers argue economic interdependence, U.S. military and innovative advantages, and mutual deterrence reduce the likelihood of direct conflict and suggest competition can be managed without war, favoring engagement and "terms of interaction favorable to our interests" rather than inevitable confrontation.

Citations (3)

1defense.govGovernment
China Poses Largest Long-Term Threat to U.S., DOD Policy Chief Says
Backs: “interests, though debate continues about the nature and extent of that threat. Official U.S. View: Yes - The Greatest Long-Term Threat”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: The DOD policy chief says China is the greatest long-term threat to the U.S. way of life; official U.S. view is that China is the primary long-term threat.
2globalsecurity.orgEncyclopedias and reference
National Defense Strategy says China is the biggest challenge to the US
Backs: “Long-term strategic competitor. It is not an exaggeration to say China is the greatest long-term threat to the U.S. way of life, according to the DOD policy chief. The U.S.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The 2022 National Defense Strategy identifies China as the overall pacing challenge and the most consequential strategic competitor; the DOD policy chief calls it the greatest long-term threat.
3industrialcyber.coNews and media
ODNI 2025 Threat Assessment notes threats from Russia, China, Iran, North Korea targeting critical infrastructure, telecom
Backs: “China has the ability to hit the United States with conventional weapons, compromise US infrastructure through cyber attacks, and target its assets in space. China is making "steady but uneven" progress on capabilities it could use to capture Taiwan, and Beijing is conducting wide-ranging cyber operations and military…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The ODNI 2025 assessment says China can hit the U.S. with conventional weapons, cyber and space attacks, and is making progress on capabilities to capture Taiwan.