What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?
Based on current analysis from political scientists, democracy watchdogs, and news coverage, today's U.S. political climate faces several interconnected threats:
1. Political Violence and Its Normalization
Experts warn that political violence has become increasingly normalized rather than remaining an aberration. Political violence is not a glitch in democracy but a warning sign that conflict management is overheating, driven by a toxic mix of elite rhetoric, weakened party structures, and spiraling polarization—when leaders normalize hostility and parties outsource mobilization to extremists, violence becomes inevitable rather than unthinkable. This is backed by survey data: a May 2025 Chicago Project on Security and Threats survey found that about 40 percent of Democrats supported using force to remove Trump from the presidency, and about 25 percent of Republicans supported using the military to stop protests against Trump's agenda—numbers that more than doubled since Fall 2024.
With midterms approaching, officials themselves are becoming targets. The November 2026 midterm elections confront American democracy with political violence directed at voters, election officials, and the certification of results—January 6, 2021, exposed how election denialism can culminate in violence, and the threat now extends beyond domestic election denialism. The Brennan Center's 2026 survey of local election officials found that thirty-two percent reported threats or harassment.
2. Erosion of Democratic Institutions and Executive Power Consolidation
Watchdog organizations have documented significant democratic backsliding. One analysis comparing U.S. democracy in 2024 and 2025 found that a democratic collapse had already occurred, with an overall score dropping nearly 28 percent in one year, with consolidation of executive power identified as the biggest problem facing U.S. democracy. Rights—particularly of immigrants and government critics—are being threatened by the federal government, though the slide into authoritarianism is considered reversible.
Human Rights Watch has echoed these concerns: in 2026 alone it has documented dozens of the Trump administration's threats to rights and democracy, noting that since returning to power in 2025, the administration has attacked and undermined human rights and freedoms essential to the meaningful exercise of democracy.
3. Election Integrity Concerns
Multiple threats to the electoral process are converging ahead of the midterms:
However, some checks remain functional: courts have denied demands to hand over voter rolls, legislative efforts to limit voting have stalled in Congress, and even the conservative-dominated Supreme Court rejected new mail-in voting restrictions.
4. Extreme Polarization Itself as a Security Risk
Beyond specific policy fights, polarization is increasingly viewed as a standalone national security vulnerability. Analysts note the U.S. now faces more security threats than in the last century, with political polarization helping attackers and hindering responses—terrorism within the U.S. can exploit domestic division.
What makes the current moment distinct from past eras of division is its lack of resolution pathways: unlike the 1960s and 70s, when polarization focused on specific issues like civil rights, today's environment is more nebulous without a clear goal either side could work toward, leaving tensions to bubble into hostility rather than productive action.
A Brookings-affiliated political scientist recently offered a stark historical comparison: "Right now, I think the country is in the most danger it's been in since the Civil War, really, given the current polarization."
5. Mutual Accusations of Authoritarianism
Notably, concerns about democratic erosion are not coming from only one side of the spectrum. The political landscape is increasingly defined by a cycle of retaliation and escalating tensions as both sides employ aggressive tactics to undermine opponents, polarizing an already divided nation around questions of the limits of political power and the rule of law. Some commentators on the right argue that people in the "democracy-protection" business are discussing what to do when the federal government purportedly becomes illegitimate in the aftermath of the 2026 or 2028 elections, suggesting that fears of authoritarian overreach are being weaponized in both directions.
Bottom line: The threats aren't singular—they're compounding. Institutional erosion, election security vulnerabilities (including AI-driven disinformation), rising political violence, and historic levels of affective polarization are feeding into one another, with experts across the political spectrum expressing concern, even as some institutional checks (courts, Congress) continue to function as guardrails.
Citations (19)
- Why political violence is on the rise in the United States and where it might lead
Source excerpt: “#### Democracy erodes and violence becomes part of politics Political violence is not a glitch in democracy—it is the warning light on the dashboard, ...”
evidence, article. Claim: Political violence is a warning sign that conflict management is overheating, driven by elite rhetoric, weakened parties, and polarization.
- Perceived Political Violence Risks Push Factions Toward Preemptive Retaliation, Researchers Warn
Source excerpt: “In May 2025, a Chicago Project on Security and Threats benchmarking survey found that about 40 percent of Democrats supported the use of force to remo...”
statistic, article. Claim: May 2025 Chicago Project on Security and Threats survey: about 40% of Democrats backed force to remove Trump; about 25% of Republicans backed military use against protests.
- WILL THE 2026 MIDTERMS INEVITABLY LEAD TO VIOLENCE?
Source excerpt: “### The Threat of Political Violence, the Abuse of Executive Power, and the Constitutional Battle for American Democracy The November 3^rd midterm ele...”
evidence, article. Claim: November 2026 midterms face political violence aimed at voters, election officials, and certification; January 6 showed election denialism can lead to violence.
- WILL THE 2026 MIDTERMS INEVITABLY LEAD TO VIOLENCE?
Source excerpt: “The Brennan Center for Justice’s 2026 survey of local election officials documented substantial threats to the people responsible for conducting elect...”
statistic, article. Claim: Brennan Center 2026 survey found thirty-two percent of local election officials reported threats or harassment.
- Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025
Source excerpt: “- This first report on the new tool compares U.S. democracy in 2024 and 2025, and finds that a democratic collapse has already occurred, with an overa...”
statistic, official document. Claim: Democracy Meter comparing 2024 and 2025 found democratic collapse, with overall score dropping nearly 28 percent and executive power consolidation the biggest problem.
- Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025
Source excerpt: “But rights, particularly of immigrants and outspoken opponents of the government, are being threatened by the federal government. - The slide into aut...”
evidence, official document. Claim: Rights of immigrants and government critics are threatened by the federal government, though the slide into authoritarianism is reversible.
- US Democracy in Decline Under Trump
Source excerpt: “In 2026 alone, Human Rights Watch has documented and reported on dozens of the Trump administration's threats to rights and democracy in the US. ”
evidence, article. Claim: In 2026 alone Human Rights Watch documented dozens of Trump administration threats to rights and democracy.
- US Democracy in Decline Under Trump
Source excerpt: “But since returning to power in 2025, President Donald Trump and his administration have attacked and undermined human rights and fundamental freedoms...”
evidence, article. Claim: Since returning to power in 2025, the administration has undermined human rights and freedoms essential to democracy.
- Democracy in 2026: What You Should Be Watching - Common Cause
Source excerpt: “The redistricting arms race is accelerating In Virginia and Maryland, we’re warning lawmakers: follow the Fairness Criteria or face opposition. In Flo...”
evidence, article. Claim: A redistricting arms race is accelerating, with Florida's mid-decade redistricting challenged as violating state constitutions.
- Democracy in 2026: What You Should Be Watching - Common Cause
Source excerpt: “The DOJ wants your voter data **Background:** As of January 15, the DOJ has sued 23 states for refusing to turn over unredacted voter rolls. These rol...”
statistic, article. Claim: As of January 15, 2026, DOJ had sued 23 states for refusing to hand over unredacted voter rolls.
- Democracy in 2026: What You Should Be Watching - Common Cause
Source excerpt: “How AI-Powered Lies Could Poison the 2026 Elections In a few clicks, using current AI technology, bad actors now have the power to spoof an entire c...”
evidence, article. Claim: Using current AI, bad actors can spoof election websites, create false official videos, or make robocalls claiming voting sites changed.
- WILL THE 2026 MIDTERMS INEVITABLY LEAD TO VIOLENCE?
Source excerpt: “Researchers have identified Russian-linked networks circulating AI-fabricated celebrity videos and false allegations targeting candidates ahead of the...”
evidence, article. Claim: Researchers identified Russian-linked networks circulating AI-fabricated celebrity videos and false allegations targeting candidates before the midterms.
- U.S. Midterms: Trump, Democrats Vie for Influence
Source excerpt: “The courts have already denied his demands to hand over voter rolls, among other setbacks, and his SAVE America Act, which aimed to put new limits on ...”
evidence, article. Claim: Courts denied demands for voter rolls and legislative efforts to limit voting stalled in Congress, so some checks remain functional.
- U.S. political polarization exacerbates security risks
Source excerpt: “This affects border security and the way threats posed by drug cartels are mitigated. # U.S. political polarization exacerbates security risks ## In ...”
evidence, article. Claim: Polarization is a national security vulnerability, helping attackers and hindering responses to terrorism and other threats.
- Perceived Political Violence Risks Push Factions Toward Preemptive Retaliation, Researchers Warn
Source excerpt: “But unlike in the 1960s and 1970s, when political polarization focused on specific issues like civil rights or the Vietnam War, the current environmen...”
evidence, article. Claim: Unlike the 1960s and 70s, today's polarization lacks a clear goal, leaving tensions to bubble into hostility.
- U.S. Midterms: Trump, Democrats Vie for Influence
Source excerpt: “Milkis added: “Right now, I think the country is in the most danger it’s been in since the Civil War, really, given the current polarization.” ”
attribution, article. Claim: Political scientist Milkis said the country is in the most danger since the Civil War given polarization.
- The Political Backlash and Escalating Tensions in American Politics (2026)
Source excerpt: “The political landscape in the United States is increasingly defined by a cycle of retaliation and escalating tensions, as both sides of the aisle emp...”
evidence, article. Claim: Politics is defined by a cycle of retaliation and escalating tensions as both sides use aggressive tactics against opponents.
- The Political Backlash and Escalating Tensions in American Politics (2026)
Source excerpt: “This dynamic has been particularly evident in recent investigations and allegations, which have further polarized an already divided nation. At the he...”
evidence, article. Claim: Investigations and allegations have further polarized the nation around limits of political power and rule of law.
- Democrat-Aligned Groups Threaten To Undermine Democracy
Source excerpt: “The forum, Reiff chimed in, suggested creating “a panel of a couple of people who could talk to governors, who could do a briefing for the governors a...”
attribution, article. Claim: Right-leaning commentators say democracy-protection groups discuss what to do if the federal government becomes illegitimate after the 2026 or 2028 elections.