Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Sources showing record-high polarization (Gallup, Cambridge, V-Dem) conflict with Columbia Law Review's account of comparably polarized eras and the claim that polarization rhetoric overstates the evidence.
Short answer: Yes, by most measures — especially "affective" polarization — but with important nuances
Political scientists distinguish between a few different types of polarization, and the answer depends on which one you're asking about.
Affective polarization (how much people dislike the other side) is genuinely at historic highs. Using decades of American National Election Studies data, affective polarization rose from about 23 degrees in 1978 to nearly 41 degrees in 2016 on standard feeling-thermometer scales, and it jumped even further to 52.2 degrees between 2016 and 2020. The share of partisans who see the other side as outright immoral has spiked too — Pew polling found 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans in 2022, up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016.
The U.S. also stands out globally on this dimension. The US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among advanced democracies studied, and one V-Dem-based analysis notes the global polarization index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, with the U.S. specifically hitting a Political Polarization Score of 2.30 points in 2025 — the highest observed since 1900.
Ideological/elite polarization is also near record levels, but through a different mechanism. Gallup data show Republicans' self-identification as conservative hit 77% in 2024, a new high, including 24% identifying as "very conservative," also a new high. A Cambridge-based study using ANES data found this asymmetry is key: the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative, suggesting one side has moved much further than the other. Researchers there also noted this polarization may have begun to level off during Biden's term, although it remains far higher than previous decades.
Important caveats from the research:
Bottom line: By virtually every measure of emotional/affective polarization — and by several measures of ideological identification — the U.S. is more divided than at any point in modern polling history (generally meaning since the late 1970s/1990s). Whether this is truly "worse than ever" in absolute historical terms is harder to say, since earlier eras (like the 1790s-1800s or the periods around the Civil War) saw comparable or arguably worse political conflict, just without modern survey data to quantify it.
Citations (15)
- Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says
Source excerpt: “## A common ground ignored Affective polarization, calculated as the difference between these ratings, rose from 22.64 degrees in 1978 to 40.87 degr...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization rose from about 23 degrees in 1978 to nearly 41 degrees in 2016 on ANES feeling thermometers.
- Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says
Source excerpt: “More recent ANES data show that between 2016 and 2020, both warm feelings toward one’s own party and cold feelings toward the opposition increased eve...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization jumped further between 2016 and 2020.
- The 'Great Divide': Understanding US Political Polarization
Source excerpt: “Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as ...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew found 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral in 2022, up from 2016.
- Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says
Source excerpt: “The US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among the 12 ... # Divided we stand: T...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The US has had the most rapid growth in affective polarization among advanced democracies since 1980.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “The global population-weighted V-Dem Political Polarization Index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, standing at 0.90, which was 2.81% high...”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: The global V-Dem polarization index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “## Overview The Political Polarization Score of United States in 2025 was 2.30 points. ”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: The US Political Polarization Score was 2.30 points in 2025.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “The highest score was observed in 2025, when it reached 2.30. ”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: 2.30 in 2025 is the highest US score observed since 1900.
- U.S. Political Parties Historically Polarized Ideologically
Source excerpt: “## Republicans’ and Democrats’ Ideology Is Most Extreme in 30 Years Republicans have always been most likely to identify as conservative, but in 2024,...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Republicans' conservative self-identification hit 77% in 2024, with 24% very conservative, both new highs.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “Based on issues surveyed, the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: The US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 than 1988, while the right was only 2.8% more conservative.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “The study, which goes up to 2024, shows that this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden’s term, although it remains far higher than pr...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Polarization may have begun leveling off during Biden's term but remains far higher than previous decades.
- Why are we so politically polarized? Here’s what research says
Source excerpt: “For example, even though measurements show increasing party division over what are categorized as civil rights issues, many of today’s votes are narro...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Frances Lee notes today's votes are narrower than 1960s civil rights legislation, complicating historical comparisons of policy polarization.
- Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review
Source excerpt: “Going back even further, John Aldrich argues that the turn of the nineteenth century saw comparably high levels of conflict between Federalists and De...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: John Aldrich argues the turn of the nineteenth century saw comparably high conflict between Federalists and Democratic-Republicans.
- Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review
Source excerpt: “Finding little support in the literature for the notion that the challenged structures and practices are actually driving legislative polarization, th...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Rhetoric about congressional polarization is more negative than the existing evidence can justify.
- Are American voters really as polarized as they seem? Rice research suggests yes
Source excerpt: “To gauge whether the survey provides an accurate measure of political polarization, Tyler and study co-author Shanto Iyengar of Stanford, considered s...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Rice/Stanford study tested whether declining survey response rates distort ANES polarization measures; underlying rising polarization held up.
- Are American voters really as polarized as they seem? Rice research suggests yes
Source excerpt: ““Our findings suggest that the way the ANES survey is done can make affective polarization seem worse than it really is. ”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: ANES survey methods can make affective polarization seem worse than it really is.