Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Stopping immigration and labor shortages — I'll gather current evidence on how the two are linked.

Short answer: Yes - most labor economists and recent Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office and Brookings Institution projections say stopping immigration would worsen labor shortages, shrink the overall economy and not meaningfully increase jobs for U.S.-born workers.

1. The labor force is already shrinking without immigration

The Brookings Institution used more up-to-date information to project that net immigration would likely contribute between –925,000 and +185,000 to population growth in 2026.

> "Without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking. The prime-age labor force grew in large part because of immigration".

CBO analysis cited in recent coverage confirms that view:

> Sharp reductions in net immigration and enforcement crackdowns shrink the overall labor force and slow economic and GDP growth.

Conversely, prior CBO reports noted that elevated immigration flows expanded the labor pool, boosted tax revenues, and increased economic output.

Economists summarize it as: the main effect of reduced immigration is simply a smaller economy.

2. Shortages would be concentrated, not economy-wide

Economists do not find that stopping immigration creates jobs for native-born workers.

Recent National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) research found:

In fact, data from 2025 showed the opposite:
> Higher unemployment, lower labor force participation, and slower workforce growth defined the labor market in 2025

One dissenting view notes the aggregate effect is limited: out of a labor force of nearly 170 million people, "any labor market impact of immigration is very limited and only concentrated in more affected industries that employ illegal immigrants in specific areas such as the Miami metro area".

3. Which sectors are most vulnerable?

Immigrants are over-represented in service occupations, natural resources, construction and maintenance, and production, transportation, and logistics. These are sectors with chronic labor shortages and limited domestic supply pipelines.

Specific shares in 2023:
> immigrants made up 24% of workers in residential care settings such as assisted living, 21% of workers in nursing facilities, and 32% to 40% of workers in home care.

Other analyses list the same vulnerable sectors:

If Australia suddenly went to zero immigration, for example, analysts project: Worker shortages would worsen Key sectors already rely on migrants: Healthcare (nurses, doctors, aged care workers), Construction and trades, Agriculture - a pattern mirrored in U.S. and Canadian projections where stopping immigration in Canada would significantly slow population and economic growth, worsen labor shortages.

4. Macroeconomic consequences

In short, stopping immigration would not eliminate unemployment broadly, but would reduce the total number of workers available, intensify existing shortages in agriculture, construction, healthcare/home care, hospitality and food processing, raise costs, and slow GDP growth - a dynamic already visible as the labor force shrank by an estimated 919,000 people over the first 18 months of tighter policy.