Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
USC and polling-data sources describe polarization at record or near-record highs, while the Conversation historian and Columbia Law Review reviewer argue the present is not uniquely divided compared with earlier eras.
Short answer: It depends on what kind of polarization, and what time frame you compare
Political polarization — at least in the U.S., where most research exists — is genuinely at or near record highs on several measures, but the picture is more nuanced than a simple "worse than ever."
Where polarization really does look historically extreme
Congressional/elite polarization: Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. One common metric is the "overlap interval" — a measure of how many Republicans lie to the right of the most right-leaning Democrat and how many Democrats lie to the left of the most left-leaning Republicans. Today, the overlap interval is zero. That's a dramatic shift from the 1960s, when about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped.
Affective polarization (how much people dislike the other side): This is where the data is most striking recently. The share of Republicans who view Democrats as "very unfavorable" has risen from 17% in 1994 to 62% in 2024, and the mirror image for Democrats is nearly identical. Both parties' identifiers increasingly view the other side as not just politically mistaken but morally deficient and threatening to democracy itself.
Presidential approval gaps: The partisan gap in presidential approval is approximately 80-85 points: ~90% of Republicans approve of Trump, ~5-10% of Democrats approve — compared to a gap of approximately 70 points for Obama and 60 points for Clinton.
Geographic sorting: In 1992, 39% of Americans lived in "landslide counties" where one presidential candidate won by 20+ percentage points. By 2024, 57% did.
Global cross-national data: The V-Dem index, which tracks polarization worldwide since 1900, found the global population-weighted Political Polarization Index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, following a sustained increase since 2021 after a notable decline in 2020.
Where "worse than ever" claims are overstated
Historians push back hard on the idea that today is uniquely divided. A Civil War historian notes that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century, and that the scale and fury of the Civil War combat underscores the utter inappropriateness of claims that the United States is more divided now than ever before. Other periods of serious political violence and division — Reconstruction, the 1960s, the Great Depression — also set a high bar. As one analysis puts it, while current political divisions feel unprecedented, historical polarization has repeatedly surfaced around slavery, the Civil War, and the Great Depression.
A legal scholar reviewing congressional polarization data similarly cautions that the rhetoric around congressional polarization is far more negative than the existing evidence can justify — it's an argument against viewing the present era as so exceptional that it falls outside the historical ebb and flow of partisan contention.
An important nuance: perceived vs. actual disagreement
Interestingly, recent research suggests Americans may feel more divided than they actually are on substance. A Cambridge study found that polarisation almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties, with a real divergence beginning around 2008, and most of this shift is down to the liberal side of the American public moving in a more progressive direction — the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. One researcher on this project argues that polarization in the US can feel much worse than it is — meaning the perception of division (fueled by media, social media, and political rhetoric) may be outpacing actual issue disagreement.
Bottom line
So "worse than ever" is true for some specific, well-measured indicators (especially emotional/tribal polarization and legislative behavior), but false as a sweeping historical claim once you account for earlier eras of outright civil conflict.
Citations (16)
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congress ideological distance grew from the 1970s and is now more polarized than any time since Reconstruction.
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “Another way to think about polarization is to look at something called the overlap interval. This measure shows how many Republicans lie to the right ...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The overlap interval measures Republicans right of the most right Democrat; today it is zero.
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today
Source excerpt: “This was certainly not always true, Lo said. In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two par...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: In the 1960s about 50 percent of legislators in the two parties overlapped.
- Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?
Source excerpt: “- 80-point partisan gap in Trump approval (90% R / 8-10% D) — highest recorded in modern polling era; compares to 70pt for Obama, 60pt for Clinton - 6...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Partisan gap in Trump approval is about 80 points versus 70 for Obama and 60 for Clinton.
- Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?
Source excerpt: “Both parties' identifiers increasingly view the other side as not just politically mistaken but morally deficient and threatening to democracy itself....”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Partisans increasingly view the other side as morally deficient and threatening to democracy.
- Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?
Source excerpt: “The partisan gap in presidential approval is approximately 80-85 points: ~90% of Republicans approve of Trump, ~5-10% of Democrats approve. This com...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Presidential approval gap is roughly 80-85 points, with ~90% of Republicans and ~5-10% of Democrats approving Trump.
- Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?
Source excerpt: “In 1992, 39% of Americans lived in "landslide counties" where one presidential candidate won by 20+ percentage points. By 2024, 57% did. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Share of Americans in landslide counties rose from 39% in 1992 to 57% in 2024.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “The global population-weighted V-Dem Political Polarization Index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025, standing at 0.90, which was 2.81% high...”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: V-Dem global polarization index reached its highest level since 1946 in 2025.
- Think the US is more polarized than ever? You don’t know history
Source excerpt: “As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of th...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A Civil War historian says current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.
- Think the US is more polarized than ever? You don’t know history
Source excerpt: “The scale and fury of the ensuing combat underscores the utter inappropriateness of claims that the United States is more divided now than ever before...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Civil War combat scale shows claims that the US is more divided now than ever are inappropriate.
- Midterm Elections And The Quest For Effective Leadership In A Polarized Democracy
Source excerpt: “While current political divisions feel unprecedented, historical polarization has repeatedly surfaced around slavery, the Civil War, and the Great Dep...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Historical polarization has repeatedly surfaced around slavery, the Civil War, and the Great Depression.
- Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review
Source excerpt: “This review ultimately suggests that the rhetoric around congressional polarization—particularly around the likely continuation of partisan warfare an...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A legal scholar says rhetoric about congressional polarization is more negative than the evidence justifies.
- Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review
Source excerpt: “Rather, it is an argument against viewing the present era as so exceptional that it falls outside the historical ebb and flow of partisan contention, ...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: The review argues against viewing the present era as exceptional outside the historical ebb and flow of partisan contention.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “The University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions on a wide range of issues – from abortion and equality to traditional values ...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Cambridge study found polarization flatlined in the nineties and noughties, with real divergence beginning around 2008.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “Most of this shift is down to the liberal side of the American public moving in a more progressive direction. Based on issues surveyed, the US left w...”
statistic, article, neutral. Claim: US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 than 1988, while the right moved only 2.8% more conservative.
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onward, study suggests
Source excerpt: “## Why US divides feel especially intense However, De-Wit argues that polarization in the US can feel much worse than it is.”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: A researcher argues US polarization can feel much worse than it actually is.