Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Most sources link reduced immigration to labor shortages, while the CIS piece argues immigration is a clumsy, small-effect tool for offsetting aging and labor shortfalls.
Whether stopping immigration causes labor shortages depends heavily on which sectors, regions, and skill levels you're talking about—it's not a simple yes/no across the whole economy. Let me pull some current examples to ground this.## Short answer: Yes, in many sectors—but the effects are uneven and complicated
Restricting immigration doesn't cause a uniform, economy-wide labor shortage, but real-world evidence from the current U.S. immigration crackdown shows it does create significant shortages in specific industries, regions, and occupations that are heavily dependent on immigrant labor.
Where shortages are already showing up
Construction: Construction relies heavily on immigrant workers, with approximately 30% of U.S. construction workers being foreign-born, rising to around 40% in states like California and Texas. A 2025 industry survey found 92% of construction firms report having a hard time finding workers to hire, and 45% say labor shortages are causing project delays. The Economic Policy Institute projected that if the Trump administration meets its goal of deporting 4 million people by the end of 2028, 1.4 million immigrants working in construction would be lost.
Agriculture: This sector is especially exposed — foreign-born workers make up about 70% of the farm workforce nationwide, and many farms report difficulty finding enough workers during harvest, a problem that intensified in 2025 due to stepped-up interior enforcement. The scale of the mismatch is striking: in 2025, employers advertised 415,000 farm positions but received only 182 domestic applications.
Hospitality, food service, healthcare, and others: agriculture, construction, food processing, transportation, hospitality, caregiving, and certain manufacturing segments have all reported tighter labor conditions, reduced staffing, and increased challenges in meeting production and business needs, reflecting fewer work-authorized individuals and a slowdown in migration that traditionally replenished labor pools. In healthcare, one analysis warned nursing homes could lose up to 20% of registered nurses and aides under new consular processing requirements for EB-3 visas.
These staffing pressures have real economic costs — restaurant price increases partly reflect it, with restaurant food costs rising 3% between December 2024 and September 2025, and unharvested crops are increasing food waste and costs for producers.
The bigger structural picture: demographics matter a lot
Beyond specific sectors, there's a longer-run demographic argument. The U.S. (like many developed countries) has an aging population and below-replacement fertility, meaning immigration has become a key driver of labor force growth. The US fertility rate stood at 1.6 in 2024, below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to sustain population growth since 2008, so without immigration the population is expected to decline, compounded by an aging population pressuring labor-force growth. Notably, the native-born labor force actually declined in 2024, to 135.8 million from 136.1 million in 2023.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has documented this directly: two forces are weighing on labor force growth in the U.S. — an aging population and recent declines in immigration — which reduce the number of new jobs required to maintain a stable unemployment rate each month (breakeven employment growth). By one estimate, breakeven employment growth fell to just 77,000 jobs per month by September 2025 — a sign of how much slower the labor force is now growing.
Former Fed Chair comments echo this: Jerome Powell noted that the combination of a plunge in net immigration and a surge in pandemic deaths accounted for about 1.5 million missing workers, and economists have separately estimated roughly 2 million fewer working-age immigrants due to the pandemic and Trump-era immigration policies.
Important counterpoints and nuance
Bottom line
In sectors like agriculture, construction, hospitality, and eldercare — where immigrants make up a disproportionate share of the workforce and native-born workers aren't filling the gap — reducing immigration is already producing measurable shortages, higher prices, and project delays based on 2025 data. At the macro level, given the aging U.S. population and below-replacement fertility, immigration has become an increasingly important lever for labor force growth, so restricting it further would likely compound existing worker shortfalls rather than resolve them. However, the severity varies enormously by industry and region, and some economists caution that immigration alone isn't a complete or efficient long-term solution to structural demographic challenges like an aging workforce.
Citations (16)
- U.S. Workforce Challenges: How Immigration Enforcement Is Impacting the American Economy - National Immigration Forum
Source excerpt: “**Construction** Construction also relies heavily on immigrant workers. Approximately 30% of workers in the U.S. construction industry are foreign-bor...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: About 30% of U.S. construction workers are foreign-born, rising to around 40% in California and Texas.
- Construction Workforce Shortages Are Leading Cause Of Project Delays As Immigration Enforcement Affects Nearly 1/3 Of Firms
Source excerpt: “92 Percent of Construction Firms Report Having a Hard Time Finding Workers to Hire, As 45 Percent of Firms Say Labor Shortages are Causing Project Del...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: 92% of construction firms have a hard time finding workers and 45% say shortages are causing project delays.
- Trump's immigration crackdown is hurting the construction industry : NPR
Source excerpt: “In a report published in July, the non-partisan Economic Policy Institute, concluded that if the Trump administration meets its goal of deporting 4 mi...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: EPI projected 1.4 million immigrant construction workers would be lost if 4 million people are deported by end of 2028.
- U.S. Workforce Challenges: How Immigration Enforcement Is Impacting the American Economy - National Immigration Forum
Source excerpt: “**Agriculture** In agriculture, foreign-born workers comprise approximately 70% of the farm workforce nationwide. Many farms report difficulty finding...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Foreign-born workers make up about 70% of the farm workforce; farms report difficulty finding harvest workers.
- 2026 Labor Shortages: Business Groups Warn of Immigration Impact
Source excerpt: “In 2025, employers advertised 415,000 farm positions but received only 182 domestic applications. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: In 2025, employers advertised 415,000 farm positions but received only 182 domestic applications.
- U.S. Workforce Challenges: How Immigration Enforcement Is Impacting the American Economy - National Immigration Forum
Source excerpt: “Agriculture, construction, food processing, transportation, hospitality, caregiving, and certain manufacturing segments have all reported tighter labo...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Agriculture, construction, food processing, hospitality, caregiving and manufacturing report tighter labor conditions and reduced staffing.
- 2026 Labor Shortages: Business Groups Warn of Immigration Impact
Source excerpt: “Nursing homes could lose up to 20% of registered nurses and aides under the consular processing mandate for EB-3 visas. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Nursing homes could lose up to 20% of registered nurses and aides under new EB-3 consular processing requirements.
- U.S. Workforce Challenges: How Immigration Enforcement Is Impacting the American Economy - National Immigration Forum
Source excerpt: “As a consequence, the cost of food in restaurants increased 3% between December 2024 and September 2025. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Restaurant food costs rose 3% between December 2024 and September 2025, partly reflecting staffing pressures.
- Immigration will play an essential role in shaping the future of US economic growth
Source excerpt: “The US fertility rate, which stood at 1.6 in 2024, has been below the 2.1 replacement rate required to sustain population growth since 2008.^5 Hence, ...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: US fertility rate was 1.6 in 2024, below the 2.1 replacement rate since 2008.
- Immigration will play an essential role in shaping the future of US economic growth
Source excerpt: “Indeed, the native-born labor force declined in 2024 to 135.8 million from 136.1 million in 2023.^6”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Native-born labor force declined in 2024 to 135.8 million from 136.1 million in 2023.
- Declining Immigration, Aging Population Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Source excerpt: “Table ... # Declining Immigration and an Aging Population Are Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth Two forces are weighing on labor force growth in t...”
evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: Aging population and declining immigration are weighing on labor force growth and reducing breakeven employment growth.
- Declining Immigration, Aging Population Reducing Breakeven Employment Growth - Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Source excerpt: “By September 2025, the CBO had further revised down its estimate of net births’ contribution to population growth, resulting in a breakeven employment...”
statistic, official document, points to yes. Claim: Breakeven employment growth fell to about 77,000 jobs per month by September 2025.
- Slow Growth In Working-Age Immigrants Reduced U.S. Economic Growth
Source excerpt: “In a November 30, 2022, speech at the Brookings Institution, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said, in addition to excess retirements, “The s...”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Powell said plunging net immigration and pandemic deaths accounted for about 1.5 million missing workers.
- Slow Growth In Working-Age Immigrants Reduced U.S. Economic Growth
Source excerpt: “Economists Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour estimated that due to the pandemic and U.S. immigration policies under the Trump administration, there were 2...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Peri and Zaiour estimated roughly 2 million fewer working-age immigrants due to pandemic and Trump-era policies.
- Immigration Cannot Undo Population Aging
Source excerpt: “Thomas Espenshade, the former chairman of Princeton’s sociology department and director of its graduate program in population studies observed a numbe...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Demographers argue immigration is a clumsy, unrealistic way to offset aging and domestic labor shortage unless at unprecedented volume.
- Population Aging Is Here. Immigration Can Offer Half an Answer.
Source excerpt: “** The role of integration, rather than immigration, policies in meeting labor shortages is often overlooked. In the Netherlands, three-quarters of cu...”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Integration policies are overlooked; in the Netherlands three-quarters of vacancies could be filled if migrants participated at native rates.