What is the current state of US politics?

Your question covers a fast-moving landscape — I'll gather the latest on the state of U.S. politics to give you a current snapshot.

As of October 27, 2026, US politics is in a pre-midterm period under unified Republican control facing historically low presidential approval and forecasts favoring Democrats:

1. Who Controls Government Now

Republicans hold unified control of the federal government since January 2025, with President Donald Trump in the White House.

Composition of Congress as of October 21, 2026:

•Senate: 53-47 - 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. Vice President JD Vance casts the tiebreaking vote in a 50-50 Senate.

•House: 218-214 with 2 vacancies. Republicans hold 218 House seats to Democrats' 214, with two vacancies. The House majority is unusually tight where Speaker Mike Johnson has been able to lose only a vote or two on party-line bills.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on November 3. Although Donald Trump will not appear on the ballot, these elections represent the first major national test of his second term.

2. President's Standing

The 2026 midterm elections are taking place amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, near-record low approval ratings of President Donald Trump, and growing negativity about national economic conditions and the ongoing conflict with Iran.

•Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed October 26, 2026: Trump's public approval rating inched higher to 32%, up a percentage point from his record low a week earlier, ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections

•New York Times/Siena University poll October 21, 2026: 36 percent of likely voters said that they approved of Mr. Trump's performance, while 59 percent said that they disapproved, which makes that the president's lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll

•Polling average as of October 24, 2026: 39.0% approve and 59.1% disapprove, a net rating of −20.1

Contentious policies cited as marking the second term include the 2026 Iran War, sweeping tariffs that led to legal pushback, and efforts to curb birthright citizenship, as well as Trump's administration has cut or frozen up to $177 billion in federal grants since the president took office for his second term.

Legal and institutional pushback: As of September 2, 2026, 82 multistate lawsuits had been filed against the second Trump administration, rising to 88 as of September 23, 2026. As the norm-breaking first half of the second Trump administration unfolded, several Democratic members of Congress introduced legislation calling for the president's impeachment.

3. 2026 Midterms - Forecasts

Democrats need a net gain of four House seats to take control and four Senate seats to secure a majority.

More specifically:

•House flip math: A party needs 218 seats for a majority. Democrats hold 214 today, so they need four more

•Senate flip math: Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51. A net gain of three would leave the Senate tied 50-50, and Vance's tiebreaker would keep Republicans in charge

Current forecasts as of late October 2026:

•Decision Desk HQ's October 21 projection gives Democrats a 78% chance of reclaiming the House of Representatives, with a median forecast of 236 seats

•Kalshi traders as of October 21 give Democrats a 91% chance of winning the House and a 66% chance of winning the Senate

•As of October 27, 2026: Democrats 90% on Polymarket US; 90.3% on Kalshi for House control. RealClearPolling: Democrats +8.3 points nationally. Cook Political Report: Democratic gain of 9-19 seats projected

•Updated October 27: Polymarket US gives Democrats a 64% chance of taking control [of Senate], while Kalshi puts that figure at 64%. Cook sees Democratic gains of 2-6 Senate seats, with four needed for control

Generic congressional ballot polling:

•NBC News October 25, 2026: 43.0% Republican, 52.0% Democrats, Democrats +9.0%

•RealClearPolitics October 25, 2026: 42.8% Republican, 51.1% Democrats, Democrats +8.3%

•RealClearPolling October 19 average: Democrats 50.8%, Republicans 42.5%

Seven races are Toss Ups, including six Republican-held seats and one Democratic-held seat. According to Cook's October 20 ratings, six of the seven Toss Up races are in Republican-held seats: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, plus Michigan held by Democrats. North Carolina open Republican-held seat is rated Likely Democratic.

Prediction markets and polls largely agree on House, partially agree on Senate: Markets favor Democrats, but Cook's forecast leaves room for either party to control the Senate.

Other factors: Political polarization and redistricting have reduced the number of genuinely competitive districts. Trump's redistricting is also noted as giving Republicans a head start. Democrats lead in polling averages as of early October, though polarization remains.

4. Top Issues Driving 2026

•The economy is the top issue: 84% of registered voters say economy is very important to their vote (82% Republican, 88% Democrat). Eighty-five percent of voters say the economy is one of the most important issues, and 84% say the same about the cost of living.

•President Donald Trump's record-low popularity, voter frustration over the cost of living and a fierce immigration fight are shaping the November 3 midterm elections

•Immigration: 59% overall very important (72% Republicans, 53% Democrats), with 45% saying immigration and crime are among most important issues

•Other issues listed: foreign policy 57%, healthcare costs, tariffs/trade policy, abortion rights, gun control

Analysts note large majorities want administration attention focused on lowering prices rather than other priorities, and prices/inflation as top issue for 53% of voters and jobs/economy at 39%.

5. Recent Gridlock and Shutdowns

Congress has operated under narrow majorities and recurring funding cliffs.

•The longest government shutdown in history — 43 days — was ended in exchange for a promise of a vote in the Senate on legislation to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. The legislation funds the federal government until the end of January 2026 and ends the 43-day shutdown.

•A partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security from February 14 to April 30, 2026, lasted 76 days and became the longest funding lapse for a single federal department, stemming from a partisan standoff over immigration enforcement reforms

•Congress later passed a continuing resolution to fund the federal government at current levels through Dec. 11, averting an election season shutdown

This reflects a pattern where neither party wants to own a government shutdown six weeks before voters go to the polls.

If Democrats gain a chamber, control shapes power: The majority party sets the agenda, runs the committees, controls oversight, and shapes floor votes, while Senate-only powers include confirming presidential nominations and holding impeachment trials. In a split Congress, either chamber can stop the other's bills.

Citations (2)

1kalshi.comData and tools
Balance of Power in Congress: What the 2026 Midterms Could Change
Backs: “As of October 27, 2026, US politics is in a pre-midterm period under unified Republican control facing historically low presidential approval and forecasts favoring Democrats: 1. Who Controls Government Now”
background, article. Claim: US politics is in a pre-midterm period under unified Republican control, with low presidential approval and forecasts favoring Democrats.
2actionnetwork.comNot yet classified
2026 Midterm Predictions: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
Backs: “As of October 27, 2026: Democrats 90% on Polymarket US; 90.3% on Kalshi for House control.”
statistic, article. Claim: As of October 27, 2026, prediction markets give Democrats about 90% odds on House control (Polymarket US 90%, Kalshi 90.3%).