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GPT-5Oct 27, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07

Is Donald Trump improving the US government?

Both sidesSays it is contested

Short answer: it depends what you mean by “improving.” On several measurable fronts the Trump administration has made big changes to how the federal government operates, with mixed results across efficiency, costs, public trust, and policy outcomes.

What’s changed inside government

•Civil service and staffing: Trump created two new personnel categories by executive order—Schedule Policy/Career (a reworked version of “Schedule F”) and “Schedule G” for non‑career policy roles—intended to make policy‑influencing positions easier to hire and fire. OPM finalized rules in Feb. 2026 and the president issued a follow‑on order on June 3, 2026 to implement them; labor groups have sued, warning of politicization.[1]
•Deregulation: A 2025 executive order (EO 14192) set a “10‑for‑1” deregulatory target and a regulatory budget. The administration reports large net rollbacks; outside trackers note sweeping centralization of rule review at OIRA, including for some independent agencies. Effects on long‑run growth are debated.[2]

Government performance and outcomes

•Border management: CBP‑reported encounters fell sharply in 2025 compared with 2024; for example, CBP’s May 2025 update cited a 93% year‑over‑year drop, and Axios reported June 2025 encounters at a multi‑decade low. At the same time, AP has flagged reduced data transparency that complicates independent verification.[3]
•Economy and prices: Inflation cooled into early 2025 but rose after new tariff actions; September 2026 CPI was about 3.7% year‑over‑year, with unemployment near 4.2%. CBO estimates the 2025–26 tariff increases raised inflation (roughly +0.4 percentage points in 2025–26) and slightly reduced real GDP, while sharply boosting customs‑duty revenue. Late‑2025 GDP growth also slowed.[4]
•Federal finances: Despite higher tariff revenue, annual deficits remained very large—about $2.0 trillion in FY2026, up from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025—driven in part by interest costs. CBO projects persistently high deficits ahead.[5]
•Public trust and approval: Confidence that the federal government will do the right thing is near historic lows; Trump’s job approval fell through 2026 across multiple polls. In August 2025, a Pew survey found more Americans said Trump was making government work worse than better; Gallup in 2026 also recorded record‑low trust.[6]
•Courts and guardrails: Some high‑profile actions have been limited by courts—for example, an appeals court upheld an injunction blocking an EO to build a new federal voter list—while parts of the civil‑service overhaul face ongoing litigation. CBO has also noted tariff policies are subject to continuing legal uncertainty.[7]
•International standing: Global confidence in U.S. leadership has been weak in 2025–26 relative to peers, and Pew’s 2026 survey shows low confidence in Trump personally among many allies.[8]

Bottom line

•If “improving” means faster top‑down control, more political accountability over policy staff, and aggressive deregulation, the administration has clearly moved the system in that direction.[9]
•If it means higher public trust, stronger fiscal sustainability, lower consumer costs, or reduced legal/political friction, the evidence points the other way so far (through October 2026).[5]

If you tell me which aspects you care about—efficiency, costs, civil‑service norms, border, economy, or foreign policy—I can zoom in with the most relevant measures.

Citations (9)

  1. 1govinfo.govGovernment
    5584 Federal Register / Vol. 91, No. 25 / Friday, February 6, 2026 / Rules and Regulations

    Backs: “2026 and the president issued a follow‑on order on June 3, 2026 to implement them; labor groups have sued, warning of politicization.”

    evidence, official document, neutral. Claim: OPM finalized rules in Feb. 2026 creating Schedule Policy/Career and Schedule G, making policy roles easier to hire and fire; labor groups have sued.

  2. 2epa.govGovernment
    Executive Order 14192 - Unleashing Prosperity through Deregulation | US EPA

    Backs: “The administration reports large net rollbacks; outside trackers note sweeping centralization of rule review at OIRA, including for some independent agencies. Effects on long‑run growth are debated.”

    evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: EO 14192 set a 10-for-1 deregulatory target and regulatory budget; administration reports large rollbacks.

  3. 3cbp.govGovernment
    CBP Releases May 2025 Monthly Update | U.S. Customs and Border Protection

    Backs: “At the same time, AP has flagged reduced data transparency that complicates independent verification.”

    statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: CBP's May 2025 update cited a 93% year-over-year drop in border encounters.

  4. 4apnews.comNews and mediaquality 1.00
    FACT FOCUS: When it comes to Trump's economy, these are the numbers that matter before Nov. 3

    Backs: “CBO estimates the 2025–26 tariff increases raised inflation (roughly +0.4 percentage points in 2025–26) and slightly reduced real GDP, while sharply boosting customs‑duty revenue. Late‑2025 GDP growth also slowed.”

    statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Inflation rose after tariffs; September 2026 CPI about 3.7% and unemployment near 4.2%.

  5. 5cbo.govGovernment
    Monthly Budget Review: September 2026 | Congressional Budget Office

    Backs: “Despite higher tariff revenue, annual deficits remained very large—about $2.0 trillion in FY2026, up from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025—driven in part by interest costs. CBO projects persistently high deficits ahead.”

    statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Annual deficits remained very large, about $2.0 trillion in FY2026, up from roughly $1.8 trillion in FY2025.

  6. 6ltnr.caNot yet classified
    Trump's Tariffs, 'Big Beautiful Bill' Viewed Negatively as His Approval Slips | Pew Research Center

    Backs: “In August 2025, a Pew survey found more Americans said Trump was making government work worse than better; Gallup in 2026 also recorded record‑low trust.”

    evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Pew found more Americans said Trump was making government work worse than better; trust and approval low.

  7. 7apnews.comNews and mediaquality 1.00
    US appeals court upholds injunction that blocks Trump's order to create a federal voter list

    Backs: “CBO has also noted tariff policies are subject to continuing legal uncertainty.”

    evidence, article, points to no. Claim: An appeals court upheld an injunction blocking Trump's executive order to build a federal voter list.

  8. 8gallup.comCompanies
    China Edges Past U.S. in Global Approval Ratings

    Backs: “Global confidence in U.S. leadership has been weak in 2025–26 relative to peers, and Pew’s 2026 survey shows low confidence in Trump personally among many allies.”

    evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Global confidence in U.S. leadership has been weak in 2025-26 relative to peers.

  9. 9govinfo.govGovernment
    DCPD-202600378 - Executive Order 14410—Implementing Schedule Policy/Career in the Excepted Service - DCPD-202600378 | Content Details | GovInfo

    Backs: “If “improving” means faster top‑down control, more political accountability over policy staff, and aggressive deregulation, the administration has clearly moved the system in that direction.”

    evidence, official document, points to yes. Claim: Administration has moved toward faster top-down control and more political accountability over policy staff via Schedule Policy/Career order.