Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Kenworthy argues the distribution of policy views in the 2020s resembles the 1970s, while other sources report sharply rising polarization, and the statbase data shows a 1940s peak.
Short answer: Yes — by most measures, especially in the U.S., political polarization today is more severe than at almost any point in recent history, though there's debate about exactly how to measure it and what's driving it.
The Evidence for "Worse Than Ever"
Congressional/legislative polarization: The polarization of political opinions among members of the US legislative chambers measured by their voting records is greater today than it was 30 years ago. One often-cited line of research found this trend dates back decades — it is worse than it has been for 65 years, according to a study that looked at the history of political polarization in the US since 1949, as judged by congressional voting records.
It's asymmetric: Polarization among U.S. legislators is asymmetric, as it has primarily been driven by a rightward shift among Republicans in Congress.
Affective polarization (how much people dislike the other side): This is arguably the starkest trend. The American public is affectively polarized today, and affective polarization has been increasing steadily since the 1980s and possibly earlier, depending on the measurement used. Researchers note the United States has been more "perniciously polarized" for longer than any consolidated democracy has ever been. Comparatively, in the late 20th and early 21st century, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies.
Recent acceleration: A 2025 analysis found the United States' unprecedented state of political hyperpolarization started in 2008, and between 2008 and 2020, the US experienced a relentless increase in "Separation" between opposing political clusters. By 2024, the degree of separation between these two clusters had increased by 64% compared to 1988 levels. Notably, polarization remained relatively flat throughout the 1990s and early 2000s before beginning a sharp and continuous rise around 2008.
Real-world consequences: It's not just abstract — American politicians are receiving more threats, threats against judges are up, hate crimes are at the highest recorded point in the twenty-first century, and mass shootings are spiking with politically-tinged motives.
Cross-national data (V-Dem index): The highest score was observed in 2025, when it reached 2.30 on the V-Dem polarization scale, and a sustained increase has been observed since 2021, following a notable decline to 0.45 in 2020. Interestingly, this same data shows the decade-by-decade dynamics since 1900 point to the highest levels of political tension in the 1940s, with the historical maximum recorded in 1946, and a prolonged negative trend in the 1980s and 2000s, followed by an upward turn in the mid-2010s — suggesting today's levels, while high, aren't literally unprecedented in all respects.
The Counterargument / Nuance
Not everyone agrees polarization in policy views has actually grown. One analysis argues that the distribution of political views in the 2020s so far is similar to the distribution in the 1970s, with most Americans in the middle — political orientations haven't spread apart to any appreciable degree. This suggests the "feeling" of extreme polarization may stem more from partisan identity and animosity than from genuinely divergent policy preferences.
There's also a methodological debate: some researchers point out that while historic survey response rates have been as high as 80%, the response rate in recent years has dropped below 50%, which called into question the accuracy of reports of extreme political divisiveness — though follow-up research still concluded polarization is real.
Bottom Line
So the honest answer is: yes, in most meaningful ways — especially elite behavior and partisan animosity — it does appear to be worse than in the past many decades, even if it's not absolutely unprecedented across all of U.S. history (the 1850s-60s and even the 1940s had their own severe polarization, including the Civil War).
Citations (14)
- The evolution of polarization in the legislative branch of government
Source excerpt: “# The evolution of polarization in the legislative branch of government **DOI:** 10.1098/rsif.2019.0010 **Published:** 2019-07-17 **Authors:** Xiao...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Legislative polarization measured by voting records is greater today than 30 years ago.
- tagteam.harvard.edu
Source excerpt: “In fact, it is worse than it has been for 65 years. That’s the conclusion of a recent study by researchers who looked at the history of political pola...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Polarization is worse than it has been for 65 years, per a study of congressional voting since 1949.
- Political polarization in the United States
Source excerpt: “[[7]](./Political_polarization_in_the_United_States#cite_note-sectarian-7) Polarization among U.S. legislators is asymmetric, as it has primarily been...”
evidence, reference entry, neutral. Claim: Polarization among U.S. legislators is asymmetric, driven primarily by a rightward shift among Republicans.
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “The American public is affectively polarized today, and affective polarization has been increasing steadily since the 1980s and possibly earlier, depe...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: The American public is affectively polarized, with affective polarization increasing steadily since the 1980s.
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “Not only are American politicians (from school board members to representatives in Congress) receiving more threats, but also, threats against judges ...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Politicians are receiving more threats, threats against judges are up, and hate crimes are at record highs.
- Political polarization in the United States
Source excerpt: “[[2]](./Political_polarization_in_the_United_States#cite_note-2) [[3]](./Political_polarization_in_the_United_States#cite_note-3) [[4]](./Political_po...”
evidence, reference entry, points to yes. Claim: The U.S. has been more perniciously polarized for longer than any consolidated democracy and has seen a greater surge than comparable democracies.
- US Political Polarization Exploded Since 2008 Largely Due to a Shift on the Left
Source excerpt: “According to research published in *Royal Society Open Science*, the United States unprecedented state of political hyperpolarization started in 2008....”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: A 2025 analysis found unprecedented US hyperpolarization began in 2008, with rising separation between political clusters.
- US Political Polarization Exploded Since 2008 Largely Due to a Shift on the Left
Source excerpt: “By 2024, the degree of separation between these two clusters had increased by 64% compared to 1988 levels. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: By 2024, separation between the two clusters had increased 64% compared to 1988 levels.
- US Political Polarization Exploded Since 2008 Largely Due to a Shift on the Left
Source excerpt: “Polarization remained relatively flat throughout the 1990s and early 2000s before beginning a sharp and continuous rise around 2008. ”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Polarization stayed relatively flat in the 1990s and early 2000s before rising sharply around 2008.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “# Political polarization score \| United States (1900−2025) − Data, Charts & Analysis ## Overview The lowest level of political polarization in United...”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: The highest V-Dem polarization score was in 2025, at 2.30.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “A sustained increase has been observed since 2021: 0.58 in 2021, 0.61 in 2022, 0.84 in 2023, 0.87 in 2024, and 0.90 in 2025, following a notable decli...”
statistic, data page, points to yes. Claim: A sustained increase since 2021 followed a notable decline to 0.45 in 2020.
- Political polarization score
Source excerpt: “The decade-by-decade dynamics since the beginning of the last century point to the highest levels of political tension in the 1940s and a prolonged ne...”
evidence, data page, points to no. Claim: Decade dynamics show the highest tension in the 1940s, peaking in 1946, so today's levels are not unprecedented.
- Is America too polarized?
Source excerpt: “And across the political spectrum the rhetoric seems more oppositional and confrontational.^1 The distribution of political views in the 2020s (so fa...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: The distribution of political views in the 2020s is similar to the 1970s, with most Americans in the middle.
- Are American voters really as polarized as they seem? Rice research suggests yes
Source excerpt: “While historic response rates have been as high as 80%, the response rate in recent years has dropped below 50%. “The decreased survey response rate c...”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Survey response rates fell from 80% to below 50%, raising accuracy questions, though follow-up research still found polarization is real.