What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?
The Century Foundation's democracy meter reports a democratic collapse and rising political violence, while the UC Davis preprint and CSIS find decreasing support for violence and rare election terrorism.
Threats to the US Political Climate Today
Based on current analysis from democracy watchdogs, researchers, and security organizations, several interconnected threats define the US political landscape heading into the 2026 midterms:
1. Political Violence & Threats Against Officials
Violence targeting public figures has become a bipartisan crisis. Since the start of 2025, political violence has killed, injured or threatened conservative and liberal political figures alike. Specific incidents include a pardoned Capitol rioter arrested for allegedly threatening to "eliminate" House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and a Minnesota man charged with offering a $45,000 bounty for Attorney General Pam Bondi.
Election officials face particular strain: the Brennan Center for Justice's 2026 survey of local election officials documented substantial threats, with thirty-two percent of respondents reporting threats, harassment, or abuse, fourteen percent reporting threats specifically, and nearly one-quarter fearing physical assault at home or work.
Interestingly, not all data points toward escalation. A 2026 UC Davis study found a broad decrease in support for political violence in the United States from mid-2025 to mid-2026, contrary to expectation and popular perception, though support remained stronger on the political right than on the political left.
2. Erosion of Democratic Institutions & Executive Power
Watchdog groups describe significant institutional strain. One tracking report found that U.S. democracy saw an overall score drop of nearly 28 percent in just one year into 2025, with consolidation of executive power identified as the biggest problem facing U.S. democracy. Nonstate sectors like media and civil society remain relatively resilient though under pressure, while rights—particularly of immigrants and outspoken government opponents—are being threatened by the federal government.
3. Election Integrity Disputes & Disinformation
Heading into the midterms, claims of election fraud, disputes over election administration, and concerns about political interference remain prominent, while election officials continue to report threats and concerns for their physical safety. There are also concerns about federal overreach into state data, including reports that the DOJ has sued 23 states for refusing to turn over unredacted voter rolls, which contain highly sensitive data including names, addresses, dates of birth, driver's license numbers, and partial Social Security numbers.
4. Federal Law Enforcement Escalation
A major flashpoint has been aggressive immigration enforcement. In January 2026, federal immigration agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good in two separate incidents in Minnesota, following a yearlong escalation of federal immigration operations coupled with an increasingly militarized response to political opposition and civil disobedience. Analysts warn that aggressive and at times unlawful directives from the administration, aggravated by rising tensions between local and federal law enforcement and the continued erosion of civil-military boundaries, will likely create further flashpoints for confrontation and violence in 2026.
5. Foreign Interference & AI Disinformation
There's growing concern about external manipulation of the information environment. Researchers have identified Russian-linked networks circulating AI-fabricated celebrity videos and false allegations targeting candidates ahead of the midterms.
6. Civic Unrest Driven by Economic & Policy Grievances
Rising tension is also fueled by economic anxiety and policy disputes. US opposition groups have mobilised in response to federal priorities and ongoing disputes over the administration's enforcement of its immigration agenda, the economic impacts of a 44-day government shutdown, partisan deadlock over healthcare policy, and differing views on election integrity ahead of the upcoming 2026 midterms. Notably, demonstrations increased to their highest level in five years, driven by overwhelmingly peaceful protests against government violence, rights violations, and unlawful federal actions.
7. Weakened Oversight Mechanisms
Regulatory bodies meant to check abuses are hampered. The Federal Election Commission is responsible for enforcing campaign finance laws, but because it currently has four of its six seats vacant, the FEC can't take any official actions or hold politicians accountable.
A Note on Perspective
It's worth noting that assessments of these threats vary by source and political orientation—some organizations (like Human Rights Watch and Protect Democracy) frame the current administration's actions as the primary threat, while security-focused analyses (like CSIS) emphasize the need to take the threat seriously without overstating it, since exaggerating it could heighten fear, distort political debate, and provoke unnecessary security measures. The overall picture suggests a climate of elevated institutional stress, but not an inevitable descent into widespread violence.
Citations (15)
- Political violence has gripped the U.S. this year. Experts say it's not as simple as left and right. - CBS News
Source excerpt: “It's a bipartisan problem in a country beset by polarization: Since the start of 2025, political violence has killed, injured or threatened conservati...”
evidence, article. Claim: Since the start of 2025, political violence has killed, injured or threatened conservative and liberal political figures alike.
- Political violence has gripped the U.S. this year. Experts say it's not as simple as left and right. - CBS News
Source excerpt: “This month, a pardoned Capitol rioter was arrested for allegedly threatening to "eliminate" House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at an event in New Y...”
evidence, article. Claim: A pardoned Capitol rioter was arrested for allegedly threatening to eliminate Hakeem Jeffries; a Minnesota man charged with offering a bounty for Pam Bondi.
- WILL THE 2026 MIDTERMS INEVITABLY LEAD TO VIOLENCE?
Source excerpt: “The Brennan Center for Justice’s 2026 survey of local election officials documented substantial threats to the people responsible for conducting elect...”
statistic, article. Claim: Brennan Center 2026 survey: 32% of local election officials reported threats, harassment or abuse; 14% threats; nearly a quarter feared physical assault.
- PREPRINT: Decreased support for political violence in the United States in mid-2026
Source excerpt: “# PREPRINT: Decreased support for political violence in the United States in mid-2026 ## Findings from a nationally representative survey - by Winte...”
evidence, article. Claim: UC Davis study found a broad decrease in support for political violence from mid-2025 to mid-2026, stronger on the right than left.
- Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025
Source excerpt: “- This first report on the new tool compares U.S. democracy in 2024 and 2025, and finds that a democratic collapse has already occurred, with an overa...”
statistic, official document. Claim: US democracy score dropped nearly 28 percent in one year into 2025, with executive power consolidation the biggest problem.
- Century’s New Democracy Meter Shows America Took an Authoritarian Turn in 2025
Source excerpt: “Nonstate sectors like the media and civil society remain relatively resilient, though they are under pressure. But rights, particularly of immigrants...”
evidence, official document. Claim: Media and civil society remain relatively resilient under pressure, while rights of immigrants and government opponents are threatened by the federal government.
- The Terrorism Threat to the 2026 Midterm Elections: What the Data Tells Us
Source excerpt: “## Patterns of Election-Related Terrorism in the United States #### Findings 2020 election had been tampered with.^8 For the 2026 midterm elections...”
attribution, article. Claim: CSIS emphasizes taking the threat seriously without overstating it, since exaggeration could heighten fear and provoke unnecessary security measures.
- Democracy in 2026: What You Should Be Watching - Common Cause
Source excerpt: “The DOJ wants your voter data **Background:** As of January 15, the DOJ has sued 23 states for refusing to turn over unredacted voter rolls. These rol...”
statistic, article. Claim: DOJ has sued 23 states for refusing to turn over unredacted voter rolls containing sensitive personal data.
- Key Political Violence and Resilience Trends From 2025
Source excerpt: “In January 2026, federal immigration agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good in two separate incidents in Minnesota. The shootings follo...”
evidence, article. Claim: In January 2026, federal immigration agents fatally shot Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good in Minnesota after a yearlong escalation.
- Key Political Violence and Resilience Trends From 2025
Source excerpt: “Aggressive and at times unlawful directives from the administration, aggravated by rising tensions between local and federal law enforcement agencies ...”
evidence, article. Claim: Analysts warn aggressive, at times unlawful directives and eroding civil-military boundaries will likely create further flashpoints for violence in 2026.
- WILL THE 2026 MIDTERMS INEVITABLY LEAD TO VIOLENCE?
Source excerpt: “Researchers have identified Russian-linked networks circulating AI-fabricated celebrity videos and false allegations targeting candidates ahead of the...”
evidence, article. Claim: Researchers identified Russian-linked networks circulating AI-fabricated celebrity videos and false allegations targeting candidates before the midterms.
- Trouble ahead: Rising political tensions foreshadow 2026 US midterm elections
Source excerpt: “In recent months, US opposition groups have mobilised in response to federal priorities and ongoing disputes over the administration’s enforcement of ...”
evidence, article. Claim: Opposition groups mobilised over immigration enforcement, the 44-day shutdown, healthcare deadlock, and election integrity views.
- Key Political Violence and Resilience Trends From 2025
Source excerpt: “Demonstrations increased to their highest level in five years, driven by overwhelmingly peaceful protests against government violence, rights violatio...”
evidence, article. Claim: Demonstrations rose to their highest level in five years, driven by overwhelmingly peaceful protests against government violence and rights violations.
- Democracy in 2026: What You Should Be Watching - Common Cause
Source excerpt: “Campaign finance laws aren’t getting enforced – when we need them most **Background:** The Federal Election Commission (FEC) is the agency responsibl...”
evidence, article. Claim: The FEC has four of six seats vacant and cannot take official actions or enforce campaign finance laws.
- The Terrorism Threat to the 2026 Midterm Elections: What the Data Tells Us
Source excerpt: “The challenge is therefore to take the threat seriously without overstating it. Election-related terrorism remains rare, but dismissing the risk could...”
attribution, article. Claim: CSIS says take the threat seriously without overstating it; election-related terrorism is rare but dismissing the risk is dangerous.