Is voter fraud a problem in the US?
Short answer: No — not in the sense of widespread, outcome-altering fraud. Documented cases are extremely rare.
This question has become politically charged, but there's actually a strong research consensus on the factual record. Here's what multiple independent studies — across the political spectrum, including conservative-leaning sources — have found:
The data consistently shows fraud is rare
Historical studies:
Even using conservative-leaning sources: The Heritage Foundation maintains a database often cited by those who argue fraud is a bigger problem. But even their own numbers, when analyzed, show tiny rates:
Mail-in voting specifically: Research published by Brookings found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, equivalent to roughly four out of every 10 million.
Noncitizen voting: A 2014 paper concluded that the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0, and a 2014 nationwide study found "no evidence of widespread impersonation fraud" in the 2012 election. Recent state-level checks reinforce this — e.g., in Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast.
An important nuance: flagged cases often turn out to be errors, not fraud
Recent investigations into "suspicious" voter rolls frequently reveal administrative mistakes rather than fraud. For example, in July 2025, New Jersey's governor announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were erroneously registered to vote in 2023 and 2024, due to a software error in the state's automatic voter registration system — not intentional fraud.
The gap between perception and reality
Despite the evidence, public belief in widespread fraud remains high: six in ten U.S. adults were concerned or very concerned about voter fraud ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with this fear particularly pronounced among Republican-leaning voters at 86 percent, versus 33 percent of Democratic-leaning voters. Researchers attribute much of this gap to political rhetoric and media coverage rather than documented incidents since voters respond to their information environment, particularly what trusted elites say about election fraud.
Bottom line
Isolated instances of fraud do occur every election cycle — a handful of double votes, a few ineligible registrations, occasional misuse of absentee ballots — but the data overwhelmingly shows these are too rare and scattered to affect election outcomes, even in close races. The debate over fraud today is less about hard evidence and more about differing political narratives and how election security measures (like voter ID laws) should be calibrated against this actual risk level.
Citations (12)
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: A 2014 study found 31 credible impersonation fraud instances from 2000 to 2014 out of over 1 billion ballots cast.
- Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Studied elections showed fraud incident rates between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “The project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000–2012. The follow-up study, which looked for fraud specifically in states ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Found 10 voter impersonation cases nationwide from 2000–2012; follow-up found zero successful impersonation prosecutions in five states 2012–2016.
- Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “Through an analysis of the conservative Heritage Foundation’s election fraud database, Kamarck determined the share of reported cases of fraud over th...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings analysis of Heritage database found only 39 fraud cases in Pennsylvania over 30 years, 0.000039 percent of ballots.
- Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the "Election Fraud Database," which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 conv...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Heritage's Election Fraud Database found 1,561 fraud instances and 1,325 convictions over many years.
- The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brookings research found mail-in voting fraud is 0.000043% of mail ballots, about four per 10 million.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A 2014 paper concluded that “the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0.” - A 2014 nationwide study found “no evidence of ...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: 2014 papers found likely noncitizen voter percentage is 0 and no evidence of widespread impersonation fraud in 2012.
- What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “- In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% ballots cast, according to the se...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Washington state prosecuted 15 noncitizen voting cases from 1982 through 2025, about 0.000006% of ballots.
- What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “### Errors can happen In July, for example, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were er...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: New Jersey's 6,600 erroneously registered noncitizens in 2023-2024 resulted from a software error, not intentional fraud.
- 2024 Presidential Election
Source excerpt: “2024 Presidential Election Despite Lack of Evidence, Americans Fear Voter Fraud Despite the fact election fraud is extremely rare, six in ten U.S. a...”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Six in ten US adults were concerned about voter fraud before 2024 despite fraud being extremely rare.
- 2024 Presidential Election
Source excerpt: “When looking along party lines, this fear was particularly pronounced among Republican-leaning voters at 86 percent, versus 55 percent of Independents...”
statistic, data page, neutral. Claim: Concern about voter fraud was 86 percent among Republican-leaning voters versus lower among Democratic-leaning voters.
- Frontiers
Source excerpt: “## 2 Past research This underscores the general hypothesis that voters respond to their information environment, in particular what trusted elites say...”
attribution, article, points to no. Claim: Researchers say voters respond to their information environment, particularly what trusted elites say about election fraud.