Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: the entirety of U.S. history and the last several generations.

The short answer is: No, it is not worse than it has ever been in U.S. history (as the country once fought a literal Civil War over its divisions). However, yes, it is worse than at any other point in the last 150 years, dating back to the Reconstruction Era following the Civil War.

The current state of political polarization can be understood through historical comparisons, modern shifts, and what makes today’s divisions uniquely challenging.

1. The Historical Comparison: How Today Compares to the Past

•The Ultimate Peak: The Civil War (1861–1865): The absolute height of American polarization occurred in the mid-19th century. This was a systemic breakdown that resulted in the secession of southern states, armed conflict, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. Today's political rancor, while severe, has not reached the level of military conflict or formal state secession.

•The Reconstruction and Gilded Age (1870s–1890s): This is the closest historical parallel to today. Political scientists use a metric called DW-NOMINATE scores to analyze roll-call voting patterns in Congress. These scores show that the ideological gap between Democrats and Republicans in Congress today is at its highest level since the late 1870s. The late 19th century was characterized by fierce partisanship, constitutional hardball, and high levels of political violence (particularly the violent disenfranchisement of Black voters in the South).

•The Mid-20th Century "Anomaly": Many people compare today's divisiveness to the mid-1940s through the 1970s—an era remembered for bipartisan compromise. However, historians point out that this mid-century consensus was actually a historical anomaly. During this time, both major parties had ideologically diverse coalitions. The Democratic Party contained both liberal northern reformers and deeply conservative southern segregationists. The Republican Party had both liberal Northeasterners and sunbelt conservatives. This overlap made compromise easier, but it was a temporary phase that began to dissolve in the late 20th century.

2. What Makes Today’s Polarization Uniquely Worse

While we are not in a civil war, political scientists warn that today's polarization has features that make it particularly toxic and difficult to resolve:

A. The Rise of "Affective Polarization"

Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (disagreement on policy issues like taxes or healthcare) and affective polarization (how much partisans dislike and distrust the other side).
While Americans still share some common ground on policy, their mutual hatred has skyrocketed. Pew Research data reveals a sharp escalation in partisan hostility: by the mid-2020s, majorities of both Democrats and Republicans viewed members of the opposing party not just as politically misguided, but as "immoral," "closed-minded," and a threat to the nation's well-being.

B. The "Great Sorting"

In the past, a person’s political party didn’t dictate every aspect of their identity. Today, Americans have undergone a massive "sorting" process. Geography, race, religion, education, and cultural tastes have almost perfectly aligned with political party affiliation.

•Declining Moderates: Gallup polling shows that self-described "moderates" have steadily declined over the last three decades, while the percentage of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats has reached historic highs.

•Issue Alignment: In the past, someone might hold conservative views on the economy but liberal views on social issues. A study by the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked US polarization and found that Americans are increasingly aligning all of their views to match their chosen "tribe," meaning the overlap between parties has nearly vanished.

C. Asymmetric Polarization

Scholars debate whether both sides are polarizing equally.

•At the Elite Level (Congress): Voting records suggest that elite polarization is highly asymmetric. Since the 1970s, the Republican delegation in Congress has moved significantly further to the right than the Democratic delegation has moved to the left.

•At the Public Level: On the other hand, some public opinion research suggests that the polarization of the general electorate has been heavily driven by cultural issues. The Cambridge study noted that since 2008, the distance between the left and right in the general public grew significantly, primarily driven by left-leaning Americans moving rapidly in a more socially liberal direction while right-leaning Americans remained relatively stable on core cultural issues.

D. The United States as a Global Outlier

While polarization is rising in many parts of the world, research shows the U.S. is an extreme outlier. A landmark study by researchers at Brown and Stanford universities tracked "affective polarization" across nine major democracies over four decades. They found that while countries like Canada, the UK, Germany, and Australia have experienced relatively stable or even declining partisan animosity, the U.S. has experienced a uniquely rapid and severe spike in mutual partisan hatred.

Summary

If you compare today to the entirety of U.S. history, we are not at our absolute worst. The country has survived eras of much greater physical violence and institutional collapse.

However, if you compare today to the modern era, the division is highly unusual. We are living through the highest level of congressional polarization in 150 years, coupled with unprecedented levels of personal animosity ("affective polarization") and cultural sorting that make today's political environment feel uniquely toxic to those living through it.

Citations (13)

1usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: the entirety of U.S. history and the last several generations.”
2democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
democracyproject.org
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: the entirety of U.S. history and the last several generations.”
3wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “The short answer is: No, it is not worse than it has ever been in U.S. history (as the country once fought a literal Civil War over its divisions).”
4syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “The short answer is: No, it is not worse than it has ever been in U.S. history (as the country once fought a literal Civil War over its divisions).”
5cfr.orgNonprofits and think tanks
cfr.org
Backs: “The Ultimate Peak: The Civil War (1861–1865): The absolute height of American polarization occurred in the mid-19th century. This was a systemic breakdown that resulted in the secession of southern states, armed conflict, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.”
6usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “Political scientists use a metric called DW-NOMINATE scores to analyze roll-call voting patterns in Congress. These scores show that the ideological gap between Democrats and Republicans in Congress today is at its highest level since the late 1870s.”
7wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “The late 19th century was characterized by fierce partisanship, constitutional hardball, and high levels of political violence (particularly the violent disenfranchisement of Black voters in the South). The Mid-20th Century "Anomaly": Many people compare today's divisiveness to the mid-1940s through the 1970s—an era…”
8facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “During this time, both major parties had ideologically diverse coalitions. The Democratic Party contained both liberal northern reformers and deeply conservative southern segregationists.”
9brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (disagreement on policy issues like taxes or healthcare) and affective polarization (how much partisans dislike and distrust the other side). While Americans still share some common ground on policy, their mutual hatred has skyrocketed.”
10cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “Today, Americans have undergone a massive "sorting" process. Geography, race, religion, education, and cultural tastes have almost perfectly aligned with political party affiliation.”
11cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “Today, Americans have undergone a massive "sorting" process. Geography, race, religion, education, and cultural tastes have almost perfectly aligned with political party affiliation.”
12facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “Geography, race, religion, education, and cultural tastes have almost perfectly aligned with political party affiliation. Declining Moderates: Gallup polling shows that self-described "moderates" have steadily declined over the last three decades, while the percentage of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats…”
13gallup.comCompanies
gallup.com
Backs: “Declining Moderates: Gallup polling shows that self-described "moderates" have steadily declined over the last three decades, while the percentage of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats has reached historic highs. Issue Alignment: In the past, someone might hold conservative views on the economy but liberal…”