Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, by many key measures—especially ideological sorting, elite polarization, and affective (emotional) dislike—political polarization in the United States is worse now than in recent decades (roughly post-WWII or since the 1970s–1980s), though it is not unprecedented in all of U.S. history and some aspects (like political violence) have been worse in earlier periods.[1][2]
Polarization is multi-dimensional: it includes ideological differences on issues, partisan sorting (consistency of views with party identity), elite/congressional divides (voting records), and affective polarization (dislike or distrust of the other side). Data mostly focuses on the U.S., where the phenomenon is particularly intense.
Recent Trends (Late 20th Century to Present)
Pew Research and others document these shifts consistently: the public is more ideologically consistent within parties, and common ground has eroded.[8]
Longer Historical Context
Congressional polarization (DW-NOMINATE party mean differences) has historical peaks. It was high in the late 19th/early 20th century (post-Reconstruction/Gilded Age into the Progressive Era strong-party period, ~1890s–1910s), declined toward mid-century, stayed relatively moderate through much of the mid-20th century (the “bipartisan” or “consensus” era with more ideological overlap, including conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans), then rose steadily from the 1970s onward to current highs that match or exceed those earlier modern peaks.[9][10]
Broader history includes even sharper divides:
Some analyses note prior high-polarization periods eventually eased via one-party dominance, realignment, or institutional changes, though current conditions (media, geography, identity sorting) differ. The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right opinion clusters, which can intensify the feeling of division.[1]
Caveats and Nuances
In short, relative to the relatively less polarized mid-to-late 20th century, and on metrics of partisan distance, consistency, and mutual dislike, yes—it is worse. Compared to the full sweep of U.S. history, it ranks among the more polarized eras (especially for a stable two-party democracy) but is not uniquely catastrophic. Trends can reverse or stabilize, as some recent data hints at possible leveling, and history shows polarization is not permanent. Data sources like Pew, ANES, Voteview/DW-NOMINATE, and academic studies provide the strongest evidence.
Citations (11)
- https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1114750
Backs: “Yes, by many key measures—especially ideological sorting, elite polarization, and affective (emotional) dislike—political polarization in the United States is worse now than in recent decades (roughly post-WWII or since the 1970s–1980s), though it is not unprecedented in all of U.S. history and some aspects (like…”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Yes, by many key measures—especially ideological sorting, elite polarization, and affective (emotional) dislike—political polarization in the United States is worse now than in recent decades (roughly post-WWII or since the 1970s–1980s), though it is not unprecedented in all of U.S. history and some aspects (like…”
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/2/251428/479919/A-new-measure-of-issue-polarization-using-k-means
Backs: “Polarization may have leveled somewhat recently but remains much higher than pre-2008.”
- https://www.newsweek.com/americans-used-to-like-presidents-from-other-party-what-happened-12307504
Backs: “Views of the other party as immoral or a threat have risen sharply.”
- https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/
Backs: “Views of the other party as immoral or a threat have risen sharply.”
- https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/cross-polar.pdf
Backs: “Views of the other party as immoral or a threat have risen sharply.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/09/13/how-us-public-opinion-has-changed-in-20-years-of-our-surveys/
Backs: “Cross-country comparisons show the U.S. with one of the largest increases in affective polarization among OECD nations in recent decades.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/feature/political-polarization-1994-2017/
Backs: “Pew Research and others document these shifts consistently: the public is more ideologically consistent within parties, and common ground has eroded.”
- https://voteview.com/articles/party_polarization
Backs: “It was high in the late 19th/early 20th century (post-Reconstruction/Gilded Age into the Progressive Era strong-party period, ~1890s–1910s), declined toward mid-century, stayed relatively moderate through much of the mid-20th century (the “bipartisan” or “consensus” era with more ideological overlap, including…”
- https://web.archive.org/web/20170810140204if_/http:/faculty.virginia.edu/jajenkins/pol_lost.pdf
Backs: “It was high in the late 19th/early 20th century (post-Reconstruction/Gilded Age into the Progressive Era strong-party period, ~1890s–1910s), declined toward mid-century, stayed relatively moderate through much of the mid-20th century (the “bipartisan” or “consensus” era with more ideological overlap, including…”
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/political-violence-history-division.html
Backs: “The 1960s–1970s involved massive social upheaval, urban riots, assassinations, bombings (e.g., Weather Underground), campus unrest, and deep divides over civil rights, Vietnam, and culture—worse in raw political violence than today for many observers, even if partisan affective sorting and elite coherence differ.”