Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

No, prices in stores are generally not lower compared to a year ago (as of the latest data around September/October 2026); they are modestly higher on average, though the increases are mild for many goods, some specific items have declined, and promotions/discounts remain common.[1]

Key Data from the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI, BLS)

The CPI measures average price changes for a broad basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers:

•Overall CPI (all items): Up 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in September 2026.[1]

•Food at home (groceries, a core store category): Up 1.8% YoY. It edged down slightly month-over-month in September but remains higher than a year earlier.[1]

•Commodities less food and energy (many non-food store goods like apparel, household items, vehicles excluding energy): Up about 0.7% YoY.[1]

•Broader commodities (including food/energy impacts): Higher, partly due to energy volatility.[2]

These figures reflect average prices; individual experiences vary by location, store, brand, and shopping habits (e.g., sales, private labels, or bulk).

Category Details (Select Examples, Sep 2025–Sep 2026)

•Higher or mixed: Fruits/vegetables (+3.7%), nonalcoholic beverages (+3.8%), cereals/bakery (+2.1%), apparel (+3.4%), new vehicles (+0.6%). Meats/poultry/fish/eggs roughly flat (+0.3%).[1]

•Lower: Dairy and related products (−0.7%), used cars/trucks (−1.5%), medical care commodities (−3.3%). Eggs have seen large drops in some periods (recovering from prior avian flu spikes), along with items like certain meats, bacon, or ice cream in average price series.[3]

•Energy (gas, etc.) has been volatile and sharply higher in recent readings (gasoline +34% in one recent YoY), but this is less directly a “store shelf” issue for non-fuel goods.[4]

Food-away-from-home (restaurants) has risen faster (~3.5%) than groceries.[5]

Context on Retailer Behavior and Recent Trends

•In 2024, major retailers (Walmart, Target, Aldi, etc.) actively cut prices on thousands of items (“rollbacks”) amid cooling goods inflation and consumer pushback, contributing to flat or slightly declining goods prices in parts of that year. NPR’s tracked Walmart cart showed average prices up under 1% over 2024, with many items unchanged or cheaper.[6]

•Goods prices saw periods of mild deflation or near-zero change earlier, but by mid-to-late 2026 the picture is one of low positive inflation for core store goods rather than broad declines.[7]

•Cumulative prices remain substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels (e.g., groceries ~30%+ higher since early 2020), so even slow increases feel elevated to many shoppers. “Cooling inflation” means prices rise more slowly, not that they fall.[8]

•Shrinkflation (smaller package sizes at similar prices) and “cheapflation” (faster rises in cheaper options) have also affected perceptions. Retailers still emphasize promotions, value assortments, and private labels.

Bottom line: Store prices overall (especially a typical grocery or general merchandise basket) are not lower than a year ago—they’re up modestly per official data—but the rate of increase is low compared to the 2021–2023 surge, some items are cheaper, and deals are widespread. Check local store ads, unit prices, or apps for current deals, as averages don’t capture every shopping trip. Data comes primarily from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI; figures can revise slightly and vary internationally.

Citations (8)

1bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
Backs: “No, prices in stores are generally not lower compared to a year ago (as of the latest data around September/October 2026); they are modestly higher on average, though the increases are mild for many goods, some specific items have declined, and promotions/discounts remain common.”
2bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Backs: “Broader commodities (including food/energy impacts): Higher, partly due to energy volatility.”
3thethirdpocket.comNot yet classified
https://thethirdpocket.com/blog/grocery-prices-falling-2026/
Backs: “Eggs have seen large drops in some periods (recovering from prior avian flu spikes), along with items like certain meats, bacon, or ice cream in average price series.”
4bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/prices-for-gasoline-increased-34-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-september-2026.htm
Backs: “Energy (gas, etc.) has been volatile and sharply higher in recent readings (gasoline +34% in one recent YoY), but this is less directly a “store shelf” issue for non-fuel goods.”
5foodworldnews.comNews and media
https://www.foodworldnews.com/articles/81703/20261021/grocery-inflation-slows-18-while-restaurant-prices-climb-35-what-gap-means-your-food-budget.htm
Backs: “Food-away-from-home (restaurants) has risen faster (~3.5%) than groceries.”
6npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “NPR’s tracked Walmart cart showed average prices up under 1% over 2024, with many items unchanged or cheaper.”
7investopedia.comCommercial contentquality 0.93
https://www.investopedia.com/shoppers-could-be-seeing-lower-prices-this-holiday-season-8729096
Backs: “Goods prices saw periods of mild deflation or near-zero change earlier, but by mid-to-late 2026 the picture is one of low positive inflation for core store goods rather than broad declines.”
8modernmoneyguru.comNot yet classified
https://www.modernmoneyguru.com/blog/why-everything-still-feels-expensive/
Backs: ““Cooling inflation” means prices rise more slowly, not that they fall.”