I'll give you a current overview of U.S. politics by gathering the latest developments.
As of October 26, 2026, US politics is in a highly polarized, pre-midterm state defined by divided expectations, low presidential approval, and economic/foreign policy pressures:
1. Control of Government
•President Donald Trump is serving his second term.
•Republicans control both chambers of Congress heading into the 2026 midterms. They hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate and 218-214 in the House, with two House seats currently vacant.
•Both chambers are controlled by Republicans, with All 435 House seats up for election and 35 Senate seats contested, including seats vacated by Marco Rubio and JD Vance who resigned in January 2025 to join the Trump administration.
The 2026 midterm elections are on November 3.
2. The 2026 Midterms - Dominant Political Event
The midterms are widely seen as a referendum on the Trump administration and will determine control of Congress over the final two years of Trump's term.
Current polling and forecasting favors Democrats:
•Democratic candidates have an edge nationally among registered voters
•On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by about 8-9 points, e.g., 52.0% to 43.0% in NBC News polling and polls show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot heading into spring 2026
•Democrats hold a 49% to 39% national advantage in one late October poll
•Forecast models give Democrats a 78% chance of reclaiming the House with a median forecast of 236 seats
•Prediction markets as of October 26, 2026 price Democrats at 90-92% to win House control and Democrats are strongly favored with Kalshi pricing their odds at 90% as of October 12, 2026
•For the Senate, the race is closer: Americans are divided with 48% predicting Republicans will maintain their majority and 46% think Democrats will flip control, while Kalshi markets give Democrats a 62% probability for the Senate
•Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the House and also need to gain four seats to secure a Senate majority.
If the blue wave that polls predict materializes, efforts to enact and change the policy agenda will play out against a backdrop of government divided along political fault lines—with the 2028 presidential contest looming.
With divided party government likely, a lame duck president evincing little interest in Congress, and the 2028 presidential election already underway, prospects for major legislative change seem slim.
3. President Trump - Record Low Approval
•Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low 33% just two weeks before the US midterm elections
•A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll shows his approval at 33%, the lowest recorded at any point in either of Trump's terms
•A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed October 19, 2026 put Trump's approval at 31% while 66% disapprove, marking the lowest approval rating Reuters/Ipsos has recorded during either of Trump's two presidential terms
•Other polling: New York Times/Siena found 36 percent approval while 59 percent disapproved, the president's lowest approval rating recorded in any Times/Siena poll
•Updated October 22, 2026, Trump's net approval low was -24.3
•Approval among his 2024 voters has fallen to 67%, down from 95% early in his second term
Reasons cited include high gasoline prices, inflation, economic stewardship, and the Iran conflict. 58% of registered voters want a Democratic-controlled Congress that can restrain Trump.
Trends show Trump underwater on major voter concerns like inflation and the economy, and negative views on foreign policy have risen during the Iran conflict.
4. Public Mood and Key Issues
The 2026 midterm election is taking place amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and near-record low approval ratings of President Donald Trump and also near-record low approval ratings noted in Pew research. 71% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
Economy and cost of living:
•Just 21% of Americans say national economic conditions are excellent or good, down from 28% at the start of the year
•The price of gas and energy has become an especially prominent issue: 74% are very concerned about this, up from 60% in July and 43% in January, before the military conflict in Iran
•Gas prices jumped from an average of $3 per gallon in February 2026, prior to the war, to over $4 per gallon as of October 2026
•65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, marking an all-time low in his economic approval rating
•Majorities say US tariffs have been bad for the US economy (71%) and cost of living (81%)
Iran War:
•At the end of February 2026, the Administration started a war in Iran, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. blockade of maritime traffic into and out of Iranian ports began April 14, 2026
•Americans broadly view the US-Iran war as bad for the cost of living (86%), international relations (72%), reputation abroad (72%), and national security (65%)
•If Democrats take control, they are likely to feel immense pressure to rein in the Iran war, but even a new majority is unlikely to have the two-thirds support necessary to override a presidential veto
Government Functioning:
•The U.S. economy recovered from last fall's 43-day federal government shutdown, described elsewhere as a 44-day shutdown, which depressed GDP growth in 4Q 2025 by a full percentage point
•Analysts warn of risk of an extended government shutdown potentially exceeding last October's shutdown
•Full-year funding for nearly every government agency, permitting reform, farm bills, Pentagon programs and the borrowing limit are all unresolved heading into the lame duck session
5. Political Dynamics and Polarization
•Partisan team play and onerous federal debt will complicate negotiations, and Democrats will likely devote attention to investigating the conduct of the Trump administration
•A Democratic House majority would mean Democrats gain control of House committees, subpoena power and ability to investigate Trump, though officials could defy subpoenas because a Trump-loyal Justice Department is unlikely to enforce them
•As the norm-breaking first half of the second Trump administration unfolded, several Democratic members introduced legislation calling for the president's impeachment. Trump himself said at a Republican retreat, "If we don't win the midterms ... they'll find a reason to impeach me."
•Yet as prospects for Democratic gains improve, impeachment remains largely absent from party leadership's public agenda
•Trump has expanded executive power, often with support of the Supreme Court, and Congress has enacted little significant legislation beyond the One Big Beautiful Bill, with the president operating mostly through executive fiat
•A Democratic-controlled Congress could challenge the president's actions at every turn, slowing expansion of executive power, while Trump is expected to show unrelenting activism on trade.
In short, the current state is a highly contentious pre-midterm environment: a deeply unpopular incumbent president with unified but narrow Republican control, facing a likely Democratic wave driven by economic pain tied to tariffs and the Iran war, with the next Congress expected to shift from legislative productivity to oversight, investigations, and battles over executive power.