Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

The short answer: Not in terms of scale, but it's a contested political issue

Extensive research consistently finds that voter fraud—people illegally casting ballots—is extremely rare in the United States, even though it remains a significant topic of political debate and public perception.

What the data shows

Multiple independent and partisan-leaning studies converge on similar conclusions:

Historical academic studies:

•The Brennan Center's report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report noted it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

•A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast.

•In 2012, a Department of Justice unit examining the 2002 and 2004 federal elections found 0.00000013 per cent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

Even using conservative sources:

•A report reviewed historical data from the right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation, which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions — this across decades of U.S. elections. The Brookings report noted that over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held; in Arizona that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.

•Pennsylvania had over 100 million votes cast in 32 elections across 30 years and only around 39 cases of voter fraud.

Mail-in voting specifically (a frequent focus of fraud claims):

•Research published by the Brookings Institute found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, equivalent to roughly four out of every 10 million.

•A 2020 study published by the American Statistical Association found "no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall."

Noncitizen voting (another common concern):

•Research dating back for decades shows that documented instances of voter fraud are exceedingly rare, including in categories like noncitizen voting, voting machine interference, and mail-in voting fraud.

•In Washington state, for example, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast.

Academic consensus

Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

The gap between perception and data

Despite this evidence, public belief in widespread fraud remains significant and politically polarized. Multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when controlling for a wide variety of other factors. Conspiratorial thinking is also strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.

Bottom line

While isolated cases of fraud do occur and are prosecuted each election cycle, the overwhelming body of research—including from sources across the political spectrum—shows that fraud occurs at rates far too low to influence election outcomes, even in close races. The debate over voter fraud is thus less about documented evidence and more about perception, trust in institutions, and how election security laws (like voter ID requirements) should be shaped.

Citations (14)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ...”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Given this tiny incident rate for voter impersonation fraud, it is more likely, the report noted, that an American “will be struck by lightning than t...”
3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”
4globalnews.caNot yet classified
globalnews.ca
Source excerpt: “In 2012, a Department of Justice unit examining the 2002 and 2004 federal elections found 0.00000013 per cent of ballots cast were fraudulent. ”
5newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “Not very," the authors reviewed historical data from the right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation, which spearheaded the now-famous Project 2025....”
6newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “The Brookings report noted that over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held. In the case of Arizo...”
7newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “Pennsylvania, which many have pinned as the state that could very well decide the election, had over 100 million votes cast in 32 elections across 30 ...”
8time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “But Research Indicates Fraud Is Very, Very Rare ## Documented cases of mail voting fraud are extremely uncommon Research published by the Brookings In...”
9time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Comparing the number of voter fraud cases in states where a large portion of voters receive ballots by mail to that in other states, the study found “...”
10sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “Research dating back for decades shows that documented instances of voter fraud are exceedingly rare, including in three of the categories the Trump a...”
11sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “### Use this tool to find voter fraud claims by state - In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025...”
12arxiv.orgAcademic
American Views About Election Fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “### 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contempora...”
13frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
14frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”