Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: what type of polarization is being measured, and which era of history is being used as a comparison.

The short answer is yes, political polarization is worse than it has been in living memory (the last 50 to 60 years), and by some measures, the United States is polarizing faster than other wealthy democracies. However, if we look back to the late 19th century or the Civil War era, we find historical precedents where division was as bad as, or worse than, it is today.

To understand how today’s climate compares to the past, it is helpful to look at how researchers break down the issue.

1. Ideological vs. Affective Polarization

Political scientists separate polarization into two categories, and they have trended in very different ways:

•Ideological Polarization (What we believe): This is the distance between political parties on actual policy issues (like taxes, healthcare, or environment).

•The Elites: Among politicians (members of Congress and party leaders), ideological polarization is at its highest point in over a century. Moderate politicians have nearly vanished, and the parties rarely overlap on policy.

•The Public: Interestingly, research shows that everyday citizens are not as ideologically divided as they think they are. Most Americans still hold a mix of views that cluster in a "messy middle". However, "partisan sorting" has occurred: liberals have sorted into the Democratic party and conservatives into the Republican party, making the two camps much more distinct than they used to be.

•Affective Polarization (How we feel): This is the emotional dislike, distrust, and hostility toward members of the opposing party. This is where modern polarization is at historic, alarming highs.

•In 1960, only about 4% to 5% of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone from the opposite political party; by the 2010s, that number had jumped to roughly one-third of Democrats and half of Republicans.

•Pew Research data highlights a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2016, 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as "more immoral" than other Americans. By 2022, those numbers had skyrocketed to 72% and 63%, respectively.

2. Historical Comparisons: How Bad Is It Really?

To contextualize today's division, historians compare our current era to three distinct periods in American history:

The Mid-Century Consensus (1950s–1970s) — Today is vastly worse

When people look back warmly on a time when politicians "worked across the aisle" and compromise was common, they are remembering the post-WWII era. However, political scientists view this period as a historical anomaly.
During this time, both parties were highly diverse coalitions: the Democrats had a liberal Northern wing and a highly conservative Southern wing, while the Republicans had conservative Westerners and moderate-to-liberal Northeasterners. Because the parties were not ideologically pure, compromise was easy, but it often came at the cost of civil rights progress. Compared to this baseline, today's polarization is drastically worse.

The Reconstruction & Gilded Age (Late 19th Century) — Today is roughly equal

To find a legislative environment as polarized as today's, you have to go back to the late 1870s through the 1890s.
Using "NOMINATE" scores—a statistical method political scientists use to map congressional voting records—researchers have found that Congress today is as polarized as it was during the Gilded Age. Like today, that era was defined by intense party loyalty, razor-thin electoral margins, massive wealth inequality, and "constitutional hardball" where political norms were routinely discarded for partisan gain.

The Civil War (1860s) — The ultimate benchmark

The Civil War remains the absolute peak of American political polarization. Polarization was so severe that the moral issue of slavery prevented any middle ground, ultimately leading to secession and a war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
While Americans today increasingly report feeling that the country is "more divided than at any time since the Civil War," we have not reached the physical and institutional collapse of the 1860s.

3. Why Is Modern Polarization uniquely difficult?

Though we have survived highly polarized eras in the past, several modern factors make today’s division uniquely challenging:

1.The Media Landscape: Unlike the 19th century, where partisan newspapers were local, today’s landscape is dominated by 24-hour partisan cable news and social media algorithms designed to amplify outrage and extreme viewpoints to a national audience.

2.The Nationalization of Politics: In the past, "all politics was local." Today, local news outlets have declined, and local elections have been nationalized. People view school board meetings or mayoral races through the lens of national culture wars, removing the local spaces where bipartisan cooperation used to thrive.

3.Overlapping Identities: In the past, a person’s political party was just one part of their identity. Today, party alignment has merged with geography, race, religion, and cultural lifestyle. When political disagreement feels like an attack on your entire way of life, compromising with the "other side" starts to feel like existential surrender.

Citations (14)

1usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: what type of polarization is being measured, and which era of history is being used as a comparison.”
2thesocietypages.orgNot yet classified
thesocietypages.org
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians generally look at two different benchmarks: what type of polarization is being measured, and which era of history is being used as a comparison.”
3brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “The short answer is yes, political polarization is worse than it has been in living memory (the last 50 to 60 years), and by some measures, the United States is polarizing faster than other wealthy democracies.”
4wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “The short answer is yes, political polarization is worse than it has been in living memory (the last 50 to 60 years), and by some measures, the United States is polarizing faster than other wealthy democracies.”
5usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “However, if we look back to the late 19th century or the Civil War era, we find historical precedents where division was as bad as, or worse than, it is today.”
6democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
democracyproject.org
Backs: “However, if we look back to the late 19th century or the Civil War era, we find historical precedents where division was as bad as, or worse than, it is today.”
7utk.eduAcademic
utk.edu
Backs: “The Elites: Among politicians (members of Congress and party leaders), ideological polarization is at its highest point in over a century. Moderate politicians have nearly vanished, and the parties rarely overlap on policy.”
8syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “The Public: Interestingly, research shows that everyday citizens are not as ideologically divided as they think they are. Most Americans still hold a mix of views that cluster in a "messy middle".”
9cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “However, "partisan sorting" has occurred: liberals have sorted into the Democratic party and conservatives into the Republican party, making the two camps much more distinct than they used to be. Affective Polarization (How we feel): This is the emotional dislike, distrust, and hostility toward members of the opposing…”
10wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “However, "partisan sorting" has occurred: liberals have sorted into the Democratic party and conservatives into the Republican party, making the two camps much more distinct than they used to be. Affective Polarization (How we feel): This is the emotional dislike, distrust, and hostility toward members of the opposing…”
11wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “In 1960, only about 4% to 5% of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone from the opposite political party; by the 2010s, that number had jumped to roughly one-third of Democrats and half of Republicans. Pew Research data highlights a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2016, 47% of…”
12cpreview.orgNot yet classified
cpreview.org
Backs: “When people look back warmly on a time when politicians "worked across the aisle" and compromise was common, they are remembering the post-WWII era. However, political scientists view this period as a historical anomaly.”
13carnegieendowment.orgNonprofits and think tanks
carnegieendowment.org
Backs: “The Media Landscape: Unlike the 19th century, where partisan newspapers were local, today’s landscape is dominated by 24-hour partisan cable news and social media algorithms designed to amplify outrage and extreme viewpoints to a national audience. The Nationalization of Politics: In the past, "all politics was…”
14syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “The Nationalization of Politics: In the past, "all politics was local." Today, local news outlets have declined, and local elections have been nationalized. People view school board meetings or mayoral races through the lens of national culture wars, removing the local spaces where bipartisan cooperation used to…”