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GPT-5Oct 25, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07
Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Short answer: In the United States, yes—polarization today is higher than it was for much of the 20th century, though not necessarily higher than the most divisive eras in U.S. history (e.g., the 1850s–1860s).
A few key nuances:
•Different kinds of polarization:
•Elite (in Congress): Roll‑call voting shows the parties have grown steadily farther apart since the late 1970s, reaching modern-era highs. Most research finds both parties moved apart, with a larger rightward shift among Republicans.
•Mass public on issues: Americans are more “sorted” (Democrats more consistently liberal, Republicans more consistently conservative) than in the 1970s, but most individuals are not ideologically extreme on every issue.
•Affective polarization (feelings toward the other party): This has risen sharply since the 1980s—people like their own side more and dislike the other side more—showing up in social distance, trust, and willingness to compromise.
•Historical context: The mid‑20th century (roughly the 1940s–1970s) was unusually low in partisan conflict because of ideologically mixed parties and a distinctive media and social environment. By comparison, today looks very polarized. Compared to the Civil War and Reconstruction eras, today’s divisions are severe but not unprecedented in U.S. history.
•Outside the U.S.: Many democracies have seen rising affective polarization since the 1990s–2000s, though the levels and patterns vary.
Drivers often cited include party realignment on race, religion, and education; nationalized media and social media; economic and geographic sorting; negative partisanship; and institutional incentives (e.g., primaries, safe seats). Gerrymandering affects representation and incentives but is not the sole cause.
If you’d like, I can show charts (e.g., congressional DW‑NOMINATE trends or survey-based affective polarization since the 1970s) or focus on a specific country or time period.