Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Political polarization feels at a historic high — I'll compare today's divide to past eras to check if it really is worse.

Short answer: It depends how far back you look.

By most modern measures, yes — polarization is worse than at any point in the last 50-150 years. But by the standard of the entire sweep of American history, no — the 1850s-1860s were worse.

1. By modern measures, at a historic high

Political scientists distinguish two kinds of polarization:

Pew Research Center defines polarization as "the vast and growing gap between liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats"

On both dimensions, the trend since the 1970s-1990s is sharply upward:

> Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

Voteview NOMINATE data shows the same pattern - the House was most polarized in post-Civil War history in the 111th House (2009-2011), with the 110th second and 109th third, and research finds "Polarization in the House and Senate is now at the highest level since the end of ... Reconstruction."

The disappearance of moderates illustrates it:
> Another way to think about polarization is to look at something called the overlap interval... Today, the overlap interval is zero.
> "In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped."
A Pew analysis found about two dozen moderates in the 117th Congress (2021-2023) compared with more than 160 moderates five decades earlier.

Researchers describe a steady climb: "polarization has been steadily getting worse since the early 1970s. Today, we've hit the ceiling on polarization."

> in 1994, only 10% of Americans held uniformly left- or right-wing views, but by 2014 that grew to 21%
The share with mixed views fell from 49% to 39%, and the overall share expressing consistently liberal or conservative opinions doubled from 10% to 21%.

> Across 10 political values Pew Research Center has tracked since 1994, there is now an average 36-percentage-point gap between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and Democrats and Democratic leaners. In 1994, it was only 15 points.

Pew longitudinal data: "In 1994 , only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016 , those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats ."
From 1994 to 2022, Republicans with a "very unfavorable" view of Democrats rose from 21% to 62%.

In short, perception is correct:
> Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

This period is also widely considered "much higher today" than the bicentennial era of the 1970s, and the US is described as "perhaps more polarized in the 21st century than it has been since the Civil War"due to factors like the 24-hour news cycle and partisan media.

2. By the standard of all of American history, not worse

Historians argue the mid-19th century was far more divided:

> As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.
> Between Abraham Lincoln's election in November 1860 and the surrender of Robert E. Lee's Confederate army at Appomattox in April 1865, the nation literally broke apart.

That era saw:

Historians note: "No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness."

More broadly:
> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation's past. ... There have been long stretches of American history in which conflicts were far worse.

Scholars also caution that while political groups have moved further apart, "these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues."

Bottom line