Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Is Political Polarization Worse Than It's Been in the Past?

Yes, by most measures—though the picture is nuanced and depends on which type of polarization you're examining and over what time horizon.

Congressional/Elite Polarization: Worst in ~150 Years

Using the widely-used NOMINATE scoring system (which measures legislators' voting records), researchers found that ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era. A separate 2019 study confirmed the polarization of political opinions among members of the US legislative chambers measured by their voting records is greater today than it was 30 years ago.

However, some scholars urge caution here: viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.

Affective Polarization (How Much People Dislike the "Other Side"): Clearly Rising

This is where the data is most striking. One measure found that affective polarization, calculated as the difference between these ratings, rose from 22.64 degrees in 1978 to 40.87 degrees in 2016, while warm feelings toward one's own party remained stable at around 70, but sentiment toward the opposing party worsened significantly, dropping from the high 40s to just above 25. It kept climbing: between 2016 and 2020, both warm feelings toward one's own party and cold feelings toward the opposition increased even further, with affective polarization jumping from 41 to 52.2 degrees.

The U.S. also stands out globally: the US has experienced the most rapid growth in affective polarization among the general electorate since 1980 among the 12 countries studied in comparative research.

Policy/Issue Polarization: Mixed Evidence

Interestingly, a Cambridge study tracking American National Election Studies data since 1988 found an asymmetric pattern: the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. The same research noted that this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden's term, although it remains far higher than previous decades. Still, the team found statistically significant increases in polarisation on every issue studied.

Some political scientists push back on the idea that elected officials themselves are further apart on substance than before, noting that doesn't mean politicians are farther apart on policy issues than in the past—what is often missed are changes in the scope of policy issues over time.

Recent Events Have Accelerated This

The COVID-19 pandemic produced a striking spike: researchers found political polarization during COVID-19 was about five times greater than in any other disease outbreak for which we have public opinion data regarding concern about infection and more than 12 times greater regarding vaccine hesitancy. Notably, this wasn't just a continuation of a trend—polarization during COVID-19 was considerably more extreme than in past outbreaks, representing a discrete jump in polarization that cannot be explained by gradual partisan separation over time. And concerningly, high levels of polarization continue to linger, suggesting reversal may be difficult.

Even very recent local-level surveys show the trend hasn't reversed: a 2026 Carnegie/CivicPulse survey found 91 percent of local officials say polarization is negatively affecting the country, and in a sharp increase, 41 percent say that polarization is negatively affecting their own communities, up from 30 to 31 percent in previous surveys—the largest single change recorded since data collection began in August 2024.

Bottom Line

By nearly every empirical measure—congressional voting patterns, partisan animosity, issue-based division—polarization today exceeds levels seen in the past 50-150 years, with the sharpest increases occurring since the 1970s-80s and accelerating further during COVID-19. The main exception/caveat is that if you zoom out to the full sweep of U.S. history (including the Civil War era), today's polarization, while severe, isn't entirely unprecedented. What does appear more novel is the emotional intensity of partisan dislike (affective polarization), which has grown faster in the U.S. than in other democracies.