Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Stopping immigration and labor shortages — I'll gather the research on what happens when the inflow stops.

Yes, according to most economic and demographic research - especially in the context of an aging U.S. population, a complete stop to immigration would worsen or cause labor shortages, particularly over the medium to long term and in specific sectors.

1. The labor force depends on immigration for growth

In recent years, nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows.

> "without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking. The prime-age labor force grew in large part because of immigration"

Other analysis phrased it similarly:

> "The implication for the labor market is direct: without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking"

From 2010-2020, foreign-born workers made up more than 50% of the state's labor force growth in Minnesota, as one example, and research found foreign-born residents participate in the labor force at a rate 3.8% higher than U.S.-born residents.

Without immigration, demographic projections show decline:

> "Without immigration, the U.S. workforce would decline from 173 million in 2015 to just 166 million in 2035."

And:

> "But without immigration, the population would begin to shrink in 2030."

2. Stopping or sharply reducing immigration lowers sustainable job growth

Brookings estimated in January 2026 that net migration was between –10,000 and –295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative.

> "Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026."

Detailed estimates put breakeven employment growth - the level consistent with unchanged unemployment - at 20,000 to 50,000 jobs each month in late 2025, and potentially negative in 2026.

A separate projection cited analysis that:

> "The CBO projects that reduced immigration will shrink the labor force by 15 million jobs by 2035"

3. Demographics make shortages persistent without immigration

> "Demographic shifts and aging populations mean countries like the U.S. will experience an ongoing shortage of workers and hiring will remain challenging for years,"

> "Without sustained immigration or a focus on attracting workers on the sidelines of the labor force, these countries simply won't have enough workers to fill long-term demand for years to come."

Research from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development calculated that:

> "bringing immigration back up to 2015 levels now through 2030 would erase over 25% of the ongoing labor force shortage projected over the next eight years."

The longer-term view from demographers:

> "immigration will soon become the primary mechanism keeping the population and the labor force growing. Without it, the U.S. will not just be facing a tighter labor market, but a shrinking one."

4. Sectoral shortages are most acute

Stopping immigration would not affect all jobs equally. Industries that rely disproportionately on foreign-born workers would face more acute shortages:

5. Nuance and counter-arguments

Some economists argue the aggregate effect on prices or unemployment may be muted because immigration adds to both labor supply and demand for goods and services:

> "That is because immigration does not just add to labor supply but to demand as well. Businesses experience a reduction in net immigration both as a reduction in labor supply and as a reduction in demand for their goods and services."

One viewpoint cited:

> "Broadly speaking, economists say they don’t anticipate widespread economic reverberations including labor shortages. ... This is out of a labor force of nearly 170 million people"

And recent NBER research found cutting immigration did not automatically create more jobs for U.S.-born workers, because immigrant and native-born workers tend to be complements, not substitutes, and businesses often scale back operations when labor supply dries up.

Bottom line: A complete halt to immigration would not immediately empty the 170-million-person U.S. labor force, but with the native-born working-age population already shrinking due to low birth rates and Baby Boomer retirements, stopping immigration would accelerate population decline, reduce sustainable job growth to near zero or negative, and exacerbate persistent shortages especially in healthcare, elder care, agriculture, construction and hospitality.