What is the current state of US politics?

Your question covers a fast-moving landscape — I'll pull together the latest on the White House, Congress, and 2026 elections.

As of October 23, 2026, US politics is in a highly polarized, high-stakes pre-midterm period during a unified Republican government with historically low presidential approval:

1. Who Controls Government

•President is Republican Donald Trump, listed as the incumbent president in his second term.

•The next Congress to be elected is the 120th.

•Heading into the Nov. 3, 2026, general election, Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

The 119th Congress currently has a narrow Republican trifecta, but that is expected to be tested on November 3.

2. The 2026 Midterms - The Immediate Center of Politics

Elections are scheduled to be held, in large part, on November 3, 2026, and will take place on Tuesday, November 3.

•House: All 435 voting members contested. A party needs to control 218 seats in the House of Representatives for a majority. Republicans hold a narrow majority with all 435 seats up.

•Senate: 35 of 100 seats contested (33 seats of Class II + 2 special elections). Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority and hold the voting tiebreaker with Vice President J.D. Vance. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach at least 51-49.

•Other races: 39 state and territorial gubernatorial elections, plus attorney general and numerous state and local elections, will also be contested.

3. Polling and Forecasted Outcome

The United States is deep in the throes of another midterm election cycle as of October 12, 2026, taking place amid deep public dissatisfaction with the state of the nation and near-record low approval ratings of President Donald Trump.

Presidential approval at record lows:

•A survey of approximately 3,494 likely voters ... shows President Trump's approval rating at 36%

•President Trump's approval rating fell to a new low of 33% in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll

•With Trump's approval at 31%, Democrats holding a 47% to 35% advantage in Reuters/Ipsos Oct. 16-19 survey

•One of the most reliable running average of polls show that his net approval rating ... stands at negative 22 percent in early October

•Once again Donald Trump is down to a new all-time net approval low of -24.3

•Recent data from The Economist shows that President Trump currently holds a net approval rating of -27 percentage points, a new low, with 61% disapproving

Historically, the party of the sitting president has struggled during midterm elections, especially if presidential approval ratings are low, losing an average of 27 House seats.

Generic Congressional Ballot:

•Democrats hold a clear advantage ... A Reuters/Ipsos survey completed Monday found 47% of registered voters choosing Democrats and 35% choosing Republicans

•NBC News average: Democrats +9.0% and RealClearPolitics average Democrats +8.3 points

What forecasters and markets expect:

•The Democratic Party is anticipated by analysts to win the House, and the Senate has become competitive

•A majority of U.S. adults (55%) expect Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives, while 40% say Republicans will keep the majority. Americans are divided on the Senate: 48% predict Republicans will maintain their majority, and 46% think Democrats will flip control.

•As of October 16, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 63% chance of controlling the Senate

The Cook Political Report identified 21 districts as toss-ups, including 15 currently held by Republicans, and in the Senate, 35 seats will be contested, with seven races classified as toss-ups.

4. Key Issues Driving Politics

a) Economy and Affordability Crisis:
The lead-up to the elections was marked by an inflation surge amidst the United States affordability crisis, including on gas, healthcare, and food prices. Polling indicated this was the top issue for voters.

•Despite Trump's 2024 campaign pledge to tackle affordability issues, the economy consistently ranks as voters' top concern

•A recent Associated Press-NORC survey showed only 26% of voters approving of Trump's handling of the economy

•The economy and affordability have emerged as central issues in the 2026 midterms, with voters frustrated over the rising gas prices, grocery costs and inflation amid the Iran war

b) The Iran War:
The outbreak of the 2026 Iran war on February 28 introduced a further complicating factor.

•Trump's decision to go to war with the Tehran regime has exacerbated economic worries. Iran's retaliatory decision to close the strait of Hormuz has driven up gasoline prices

•Analysts argued that gasoline prices represented the most direct channel through which the costs of the Iran war were transmitted to American voters

•Polling released by CNN in the September of 2026 showed that only 26% of voters approved of the Trump administrations handling of Iran

•National polls from Fox News and The Associated Press-NORC place the war behind only economy-related issues, government corruption, and health care among voters' top four concerns

Other key issues include opposition to water, energy, and pollution-intensive AI data centers; restrictions on abortion; corruption; and foreign policy.

Public mood is pessimistic: Many also express pessimism about the state of U.S. politics, with only 1 in 10 saying they feel optimistic.

5. Institutional and Fiscal Stress

Government Funding: The government shutdown October 2026 threat ... ultimately did not materialize, as Congress moved ... to pass a continuing resolution that President Trump signed into law on September 2. Funding is now secured through December 11, 2026. On September 2, 2026, President Donald Trump signed the funding bill into law, extending federal funding through December 11. However, Congress still has not finished any of the 12 full-year spending bills.

Redistricting and Voting Rights Battle:
Trump called on Republican-led states to enact rare mid-decade redistricting to boost the party's chances of holding power. The moves prompted reciprocal redistricting from Democratic-led states through measures such as California's Election Rigging Response Act.

In April 2026, the Supreme Court ruled in Louisiana v. Callais that parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 which enabled the creation of majority-minority districts were unconstitutional.

In sum, the US in late October 2026 is governed by a Republican trifecta with very narrow margins, led by an unpopular incumbent president, facing an electorate intensely focused on cost-of-living and the economic fallout of the Iran war, and bracing for a midterm election on November 3 where historical precedent, polling, and prediction markets all point toward likely Democratic gains, especially in the House, with Senate control still considered a toss-up.

Citations (2)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
2026 United States elections
Backs: “As of October 23, 2026, US politics is in a highly polarized, high-stakes pre-midterm period during a unified Republican government with historically low presidential approval:”
2kalshi.comData and tools
2026 Midterm Predictions: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
Backs: “2. The 2026 Midterms - The Immediate Center of Politics”