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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 23, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Short answer: It exists, but at extremely low rates — not the widespread problem it's often portrayed to be.

What decades of research show:

Virtually every rigorous academic and government study has reached the same conclusion. The consensus from credible research and investigation is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare, and the incidence of certain types of fraud – such as impersonating another voter – is virtually nonexistent. A landmark Brennan Center report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent.

Specific data points illustrate just how rare it is:

•A comprehensive 2014 study found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast. Even this tiny number is likely inflated.
•In Pennsylvania, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data across which 32 elections were held. Just 39 cases of voter fraud were identified — 0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast.
•Even the conservative Heritage Foundation's own database — often cited by those arguing fraud is a major issue — found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions, spread across decades and tens of billions of ballots cast nationally.
•Researchers at the Brookings Institution examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 and estimated there were about four cases of fraud for every 10 million mail ballots cast, on average.

Noncitizen voting specifically:

This has been a major focus recently, but investigations keep deflating the claims. In 2025, DHS and DOJ efforts to find large numbers of noncitizen voters largely fell apart under scrutiny:

•Almost 94 million ballots have been cast in California's eight statewide elections since November 2020. The 34 allegedly illegal ballots would account for 0.00004% of them.
•In Pennsylvania, where DHS claimed it had identified more than 14,000 potential noncitizen voters, only four people were charged with illegally voting in 2024. In Nevada, where DHS claimed nearly 16,000 noncitizens were illegally registered, that figure was reduced to 185 and then to zero as everyone on the list proved to be a citizen.
•Nationally, the department has claimed that there could be as many as 250,000 fraudulent voters—even though only 156 people have been charged thus far.

Why "errors" often get mistaken for fraud:

Much of what looks like fraud turns out to be clerical/administrative error rather than intentional wrongdoing. For example, in July, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were erroneously registered to vote in 2023 and 2024, through no fault of their own, due to a software error in the state's automatic voter registration system.

The gap between perception and reality:

Despite the data, public concern remains high — and sharply partisan. Six in ten U.S. adults were concerned or very concerned about voter fraud ahead of the presidential election, according to a poll by NPR/PBS News and Marist, with fear particularly pronounced among Republican-leaning voters at 86 percent, versus 55 percent of Independents and just 33 percent of Democratic-leaning voters.

Bottom line

Isolated cases of voter fraud do occur every election cycle — double voting, ineligible voting by felons in some states, occasional noncitizen registration errors — but the scale is minuscule relative to the hundreds of millions of ballots cast, and there's no credible evidence it has changed any election outcome. The bigger practical issues in U.S. elections tend to involve administrative errors, voter list maintenance problems, and (according to some researchers) low turnout rather than fraud itself.

Citations (11)

  1. 1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Resources on Voter Fraud Claims

    Source excerpt: “The consensus from credible research and investigation is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare, and the incidence of certain types of fra...”

  2. 2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Resources on Voter Fraud Claims

    Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ”

  3. 3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth

    Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”

  4. 4thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
    Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise

    Source excerpt: “In Pennsylvania, for example, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data, across which 32 elections were held. Just 39 cases of voter fraud wer...”

  5. 5newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek

    Source excerpt: “Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the "Election Fraud Database," which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 conv...”

  6. 6sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “Researchers at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank, examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 an...”

  7. 7sfchronicle.comNot yet classified
    Did the Trump administration just prove that voter fraud in California is a nonfactor?

    Source excerpt: “According to the California Secretary of State’s Office, almost 94 million ballots have been cast in the eight statewide elections since November 2020...”

  8. 8sfchronicle.comNot yet classified
    Did the Trump administration just prove that voter fraud in California is a nonfactor?

    Source excerpt: “In Pennsylvania, where DHS claimed it had identified more than 14,000 potential noncitizen voters, only four people were charged with illegally voting...”

  9. 9newrepublic.comNews and mediaquality 0.56
    Green Card Holder Arrested in Trump’s Voter Fraud Crackdown Speaks Out

    Source excerpt: “The department has claimed that there could be as many as 250,000 fraudulent voters—even though only 156 people have been charged thus far. ”

  10. 10sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “### Errors can happen In July, for example, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were er...”

  11. 11statista.comData and toolsquality 0.86
    2024 Presidential Election

    Source excerpt: “2024 Presidential Election Despite Lack of Evidence, Americans Fear Voter Fraud Despite the fact election fraud is extremely rare, six in ten U.S. a...”