Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

Leans no

It's a mixed picture — overall, prices are not lower than a year ago, but there are some notable exceptions where they are.

Overall Trend: Still Higher, But Easing

Most prices remain higher than a year ago, though the pace of increase has slowed:

•Overall U.S. inflation (CPI) hit 3.7% as of the latest September reading, driven partly by surging gas prices.

•Grocery prices dropped 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, leaving them 1.8% higher than a year earlier, according to BLS data.

•Restaurant menu prices are running hotter: menu prices were up 3.5% in September compared with a year earlier.

Where You Are Seeing Lower Prices

Several specific grocery items have actually gotten cheaper over the past year:

•Eggs: Egg prices plummeted more than 20% over the year ending in September, indicating continued recovery from a shortage caused by an outbreak of bird flu.

•Dairy: Butter prices plunged 10.3% last month compared to a year earlier, while prices for ice cream, milk and cheese each fell more than 2% over that period.

•Bacon: bacon costs 3.3% less than it did a year ago.

•Retailers themselves are actively cutting prices: Aldi has cut prices on nearly a third of what it sells, in a fall promotion that runs through at least November 3, and Walmart said in August it would cut prices on about 11,000 more items, paid for in part with $2.9 billion in tariff refunds.

Where Prices Are Still Rising

Other categories are pushing in the opposite direction:

•Beef: One source noted beef prices were up 5.9% from a year earlier, with ground beef up 7.2% and roasts up 8.4% (as of August), tied to a shrinking cattle herd.

•Coffee, candy, and fresh fruit prices climbed in September even as overall grocery costs eased slightly, per ABC News.

•Gasoline is a big driver of overall inflation, with gas prices surging 9.1% in September and standing 34.2% above year-ago levels.

Bottom Line

So the honest answer is: it depends on what you're buying. Grocery store basket totals overall are still running about 1.8–2.5% higher than a year ago, but that masks big swings underneath — eggs, dairy, and bacon are notably cheaper, while beef, coffee, and gas are more expensive. Many shoppers report not feeling much relief even where averages show improvement, since the BLS index level for Food at Home is roughly 25 to 30% higher today than it was in January 2020, so today's "lower" prices are still being compared against an already elevated baseline.

Citations (11)

1usinflationcalculator.comData and tools
Food Inflation in the United States (1968-2026)
Source excerpt: “### Inflation Rate 3.7% ### Consumer Price Index (CPI) 336.940 ### US CPI Sept 2026: Inflation Hits 3.7% as Gas Prices Surge”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Overall U.S. inflation (CPI) hit 3.7% in the latest September reading, driven partly by surging gas prices.
2abcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
Which grocery prices are rising the fastest and which are falling? - ABC News
Source excerpt: “Overall, grocery prices dropped 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, leaving them 1.8% higher than a year earlier, U.S. Bureau of Labor S...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Grocery prices dropped 0.1% last month but are 1.8% higher than a year earlier, per BLS data.
3restaurant.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Menu Prices
Source excerpt: “Compared with a year earlier, menu prices were up 3.5% in September. ”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Restaurant menu prices were up 3.5% in September compared with a year earlier.
4abcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
Which grocery prices are rising the fastest and which are falling? - ABC News
Source excerpt: “Egg prices plummeted more than 20% over the year ending in September, indicating continued recovery from a shortage caused by an outbreak of bird flu....”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Egg prices plummeted more than 20% over the year ending in September, recovering from a bird flu shortage.
5abcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
Which grocery prices are rising the fastest and which are falling? - ABC News
Source excerpt: “Butter prices plunged 10.3% last month compared to a year earlier, while prices for ice cream, milk and cheese each fell more than 2% over that period...”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Butter prices fell 10.3% year over year, while ice cream, milk and cheese each fell more than 2%.
6abcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
Which grocery prices are rising the fastest and which are falling? - ABC News
Source excerpt: “The cooldown in meat prices hit a range of products, including bacon, which costs 3.3% less than it did a year ago. ”
statistic, article, points to yes. Claim: Bacon costs 3.3% less than it did a year ago.
7substack.comBlogs and newsletters
Supermarkets are Cutting Grocery Prices. Consumers Don’t Feel It.
Source excerpt: “* Aldi has cut prices on nearly a third of what it sells, in a fall promotion that runs through at least November 3. ”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Aldi has cut prices on nearly a third of what it sells in a fall promotion running through at least November 3.
8substack.comBlogs and newsletters
Supermarkets are Cutting Grocery Prices. Consumers Don’t Feel It.
Source excerpt: “Walmart said in August it would cut prices on about 11,000 more items, paid for in part with $2.9 billion in tariff refunds. ”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Walmart said in August it would cut prices on about 11,000 more items, funded partly by $2.9 billion in tariff refunds.
9substack.comBlogs and newsletters
Supermarkets are Cutting Grocery Prices. Consumers Don’t Feel It.
Source excerpt: “#### Heading into the holidays Beef did ease 1% in September, but as of August it was still up 5.9% from a year earlier, with ground beef up 7.2% and ...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Beef prices were up 5.9% from a year earlier, with ground beef up 7.2% and roasts up 8.4%.
10restaurant.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Menu Prices
Source excerpt: “Higher energy costs drove much of the increase, with gasoline prices surging 9.1% in September and standing 34.2% above year-ago levels, adding to hea...”
statistic, data page, points to no. Claim: Gasoline prices surged 9.1% in September and stand 34.2% above year-ago levels.
11whatsthegrocerybill.comNot yet classified
Grocery Prices Rising in 2026 Even as Overall Inflation Holds Steady
Source excerpt: “The BLS index level for Food at Home is roughly 25 to 30% higher today than it was in January 2020, meaning shoppers are comparing current prices not ...”
background, article, points to no. Claim: BLS Food at Home index is roughly 25 to 30% higher than in January 2020, so lower prices compare against an elevated baseline.