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Muse Spark 1.2Oct 22, 2026meta/muse-spark-1.2-20260805

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization today versus past history — I'll pull current research and historical trends to see what's changed.

Yes, by most modern measures - but with important historical caveats.

1. Compared to the recent past (1970s-present): Yes, worse than ever

Most scholars and polling organizations say polarization is at a modern high:

•As of 2025, polarization was higher than any point in current history, causing less collaboration and mutual understanding between Democrats and Republicans
•Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases during the 2000s onwards. One Michigan State dataset found polarization has been steadily getting worse since the early 1970s. Today, we've hit the ceiling on polarization
•In the late 20th and early 21st century, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies
•A Brown University study released in 2020 found that the U.S. was polarizing faster compared to other democratic countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia

Two types of polarization are measured:

Affective polarization: dislike and distrust of political out-groups - defined as the tendency for individuals to exhibit animosity toward those on the opposite side of the partisan divide

Ideological polarization: differences between policy positions

Both have increased, but affective polarization has risen most sharply:

•According to Pew Research Center, members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014, while those who have very unfavorable opinions are at record highs as of 2022
•Pew data shows from 1994 to 2022, the percentage of Republicans with a "very unfavorable" view of the Democratic party has risen from 21% to 62%
•Americans' values and "basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years." When Pew started the survey in 1987 the average difference was 10 percentage points; in 2012, it was 18 percentage points

Multi-country research confirms the US trend:

> Political polarization among Americans has grown rapidly in the last 40 years—more than in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia or Germany
>Researchers present ... "affective polarization"—a phenomenon in which citizens feel more negatively toward other political parties than toward their own. They found that in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined

Using a "feeling thermometer" from 0 to 100, in 1978, the average American rated the members of their own political party 27 points higher than members of the other major party. By 2016, Americans were rating their own party 45.9 points higher, an increase of 4.8 points per decade.

Other indicators:

•From 1994 to 2014, the share of Americans who expressed either "consistently liberal" or "consistently conservative" opinions doubled from 10% to 21%
•In 1994, the average Republican was more conservative than 70% of Democrats, compared to more conservative than 94% of Democrats in 2014
•According to Gallup, in 2025 the percentage of Americans self-identifying as politically moderate reached a record low of 34%
•"No established democracy in recent history has been as deeply polarized as the U.S."

Sociologists describe this as "pluralistic collapse" or "belief consolidation" - where citizens once held idiosyncratic combinations of views that cut across partisan lines, they now increasingly sort into two comprehensive worldview clusters.

2. Compared to the distant past (19th Century / Civil War era): No, not the worst ever

Historians caution against saying today is the most divided ever:

•The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870 – 1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history, with open political violence and highly polarized political discourse
•As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century
•Between Abraham Lincoln's election in November 1860 and the surrender of Robert E. Lee's Confederate army at Appomattox in April 1865, the nation literally broke apart. Four years of civil war produced at least 620,000 military deaths – the equivalent of approximately 6.5 million dead in the United States of 2020
•On May 22, 1856, U.S. Rep. Preston Brooks of South Carolina caned Sen. Charles Sumner of Massachusetts into bloody insensibility on the floor of the Senate chamber, and seven slaveholding states seceded between Dec. 20 and Feb. 1, 1861

Other analysis notes:

> We have been conditioned to think things are worse now than ever, that abuses, negativity and polarization are worse than ever before. That isn't true. Much of American history shows that the constant state of polarized division and gridlock since 1796 is also when great things can sometimes be accomplished
> The divisions are now deeper, even than they were in the 19th century - some scholars argue the opposite, while others say cumulative violence was worse a half century ago, with assassinations and bombings, indicating debate.

3. Nuance: What is being polarized?

Researchers distinguish:

•Elite polarization (Congress, political activists) vs mass polarization (general public). According to Stony Brook political scientists, polarization is primarily a phenomenon among Americans who are deeply involved in politics and very expressive. Other research suggests Americans are less polarized than they think, and that there is "significant ideological overlap and agreement on policies", but they are very emotionally polarized - "they do not like members of the other party"

In short: If "the past" means the last 50-80 years since the post-World War II consensus of the 1950s-1960s, polarization is unequivocally worse now and accelerating faster than in any comparable democracy. If "the past" includes the 1850s-1860s Civil War era or the Gilded Age, historians generally say those periods were more violently and fundamentally divided than today.

Citations (4)

  1. 1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
    Political polarization in the United States

    Backs: “As of 2025, polarization was higher than any point in current history, causing less collaboration and mutual understanding between Democrats and Republicans”

  2. 2phys.orgNews and mediaquality 0.85
    US is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds

    Backs: “Americans' values and "basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years." When Pew started the survey in 1987 the average difference was 10 percentage points; in 2012, it was 18 percentage points. Multi-country research confirms the US trend: Political polarization among…”

  3. 3govexec.comNews and mediaquality 0.87
    Think the U.S. is More Polarized Than Ever? You Don’t Know History

    Backs: “1870 – 1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history, with open political violence and highly polarized political discourse. As a historian who has written and taught about the Civil War era for several decades, I know that current divisions pale in comparison to those of…”

  4. 4nationalcenter.orgNot yet classified
    Frustrated by Political Polarization and Division? Take a Lesson from History, and Begin the World Over Again

    Backs: “We have been conditioned to think things are worse now than ever, that abuses, negativity and polarization are worse than ever before.”