Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will halting immigration trigger labor shortages? I'll pull recent research on jobs, demographics, and wages to answer.

Yes, according to the majority of economic and demographic research, a complete or sustained sharp reduction in immigration would cause or significantly worsen labor shortages - not reduce them.

The effect is not uniform across all industries and regions, but the consensus is that it shrinks the overall workforce and economy.

1. Immigration is a primary driver of workforce growth

•Immigration contributes positively to economic growth by expanding the labor force, increasing consumer demand, and supporting overall GDP growth.

•Immigration plays a critical role in mitigating the economic effects of an aging population by increasing the share of working-age individuals who support social programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

•Every major developed economy is below replacement fertility. Without immigration, populations shrink, workforces decline, and dependency ratios soar.

In the U.S., the ratio of working-age people (18 to 64) to those 65 and older has fallen from 5.7 in 1970 to 3.4 in 2024 and is projected to fall to 2.7 by 2040.

The Census Bureau estimates that, in a zero-immigration scenario starting in 2022, the U.S. population would fall by over seven million between 2022 and 2040.

The Federal Reserve and others have noted that without the immigration surge of 2022-2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking, and workforce growth is basically zero without immigration.

Low fertility rates can lead to labor shortages, decreased economic growth, and strain on public finances due to a smaller workforce. Europe's demographics are characterized by a low birthrate and positive migration rate, making immigration vital for compensating population decline.

2. Recent evidence of what happens when immigration is reduced

Recent research challenges the narrative that reducing immigration creates more opportunities for U.S.-born workers. Instead, declines in foreign-born labor can worsen labor shortages and increase costs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor.

Brookings Institution analysis of 196 metro areas between 2014-2024 found:

> Immigration has been a key driver of economic growth in metro areas and metro areas with the greatest increases in their foreign-born population share have seen higher rates of employment among both foreign-born and native-born workers.

Data show no evidence that metro areas with larger increases in the foreign-born share produce worse labor market outcomes for native-born workers. Between 2014 and 2024, employment rates in high-immigration metros were nearly 3 percentage points higher for both groups.

Conversely:

•GDP growth is slowed by reductions in net migration. The decline between 2024 and 2025 will reduce GDP growth by between 0.19 and 0.26 percentage points and lower consumer spending by $40 billion to $60 billion in 2025.

•Though much rhetoric focuses on jobs for American workers, most economists agree lower migration does not ultimately lead to additional employment for U.S.-born workers. The main effect of reduced immigration is simply a smaller economy.

•Researchers calculated that the loss of foreign workers will mean that monthly U.S. job growth "could be near zero or negative in the next few years''.

•Early estimates suggest the federal immigration enforcement surge could shrink the nation's workforce by more than 2.4 million people and reduce national GDP by more than 7% by 2028.

One NBER study found that for every six male undocumented workers lost, the labor market also loses one male U.S.-born worker, because immigrant labor supports broader employment ecosystems.

3. Which sectors would be hit hardest?

Immigrants are not evenly distributed. Certain industries rely heavily on immigrant labor:

•Agriculture: Immigrant workers make up a substantial portion, up to 50% of the labor force in some areas, and estimates of 66% nationally

•Construction: Immigrants accounting for around 25% - also 25% of construction labor. Without them, housing and infrastructure projects slow, pushing costs higher

•Healthcare: Particularly in eldercare and nursing support; demand rising with aging, but without immigrant workers staffing gaps widen, with 15-28% of healthcare staff immigrant

•Hospitality, cleaning, and care services: Also cited as filling shortages in construction, hospitality, cleaning, and care services

The U.S. Labor Department itself said in an Oct. 2025 filing: "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce, results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers''.

4. Nuance and counter-arguments

Stopping immigration would not automatically lead to higher wages and more jobs for native workers at large, and could have offsetting effects:

1.Demand falls too: Immigrants are consumers as well as producers, so fewer immigrants means less consumer demand.

2.Complementary, not purely substitutional: Immigrants often fill jobs native workers are unwilling or unable to take, complementing the local labor force.

3.Short-term vs long-term: A year or two of slower immigration will not have a noticeable long-term effect, but if the U.S. becomes permanently unattractive, population decline follows.

4.Some analyses note complexity: With both economy and employment growing rapidly, some have suggested the lack of immigrants is not the sole cause of shortages, noting legal immigration has slowed but not stopped. Automation, higher wages, increased labor force participation of native-born workers, and bringing discouraged workers back could partially offset losses, but economists generally find these would not fully compensate for a shrinking workforce.

In short, in aging, low-fertility economies like the U.S. and much of Europe, immigration is currently the main source of workforce growth. Stopping it would accelerate demographic aging, reduce the supply of available workers - especially for physically demanding, seasonal, or care-related jobs - and shrink the total economy, which in turn reduces job creation for everyone.

Citations (3)

1brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
The impact of immigrants on the US economy
Backs: “The effect is not uniform across all industries and regions, but the consensus is that it shrinks the overall workforce and economy. 1. Immigration is a primary driver of workforce growth. Immigration contributes positively to economic growth by expanding the labor force, increasing consumer demand, and supporting…”
2brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
Metro Monitor 2026: The relationship between immigration and regional economic performance over the past decade
Backs: “Instead, declines in foreign-born labor can worsen labor shortages and increase costs, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor. Brookings Institution analysis of 196 metro areas between 2014-2024 found:”
3ien.comNot yet classified
Immigration Crackdown: Economic Consequences Revealed
Backs: “Though much rhetoric focuses on jobs for American workers, most economists agree lower migration does not ultimately lead to additional employment for U.S.-born workers. The main effect of reduced immigration is simply a smaller economy. Researchers calculated that the loss of foreign workers will mean that monthly…”