Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

[1][1][2]No, prices in stores are generally not lower compared to a year ago (as of the latest data through September 2026); they are modestly higher on average, though the pace of increases has slowed for many categories and some specific items have declined.[1]

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data provides the clearest picture:

•Overall CPI: Up 3.7% year-over-year (September 2025 to September 2026). This reflects the broad basket of goods and services.[1]

•Food at home (groceries, a major store category): Up 1.8%. This is a moderation from prior high inflation periods. Subcategories vary—dairy and related products were down about 0.7%, meats/poultry/fish/eggs roughly flat (+0.3%), while fruits/vegetables and nonalcoholic beverages rose around 3.7–3.8%. Some staples like eggs have fallen sharply from prior avian flu-driven peaks, and certain items (e.g., bacon or select produce in tracked baskets) have declined, but the overall grocery basket is higher.[3]

•Goods/commodities (core of what stores sell): Overall commodities up 4.6%. Commodities less food and energy commodities (a core goods measure) up about 0.7%. Durables were roughly flat (0.0%).[2]

•Examples: Apparel +3.4%; new vehicles +0.6%; household furnishings and operations +1.6%; used cars and trucks –1.5%; medical care commodities –3.3%.[3]

Energy (e.g., gasoline +34.2%) has driven much of the recent headline increase and affects store costs indirectly, but store shelves primarily reflect goods prices.[1]

Context and Nuances

•Mixed individual items and retailer actions: Tracking by outlets like NPR (earlier periods) and others shows many grocery/personal care items stable or slightly down in specific baskets, with retailers (Walmart, Target, etc.) implementing rollbacks/discounts on thousands of items in prior years to compete. Some categories experienced temporary deflation or heavy promotions. However, these have not offset the broader rise in the price level.[4]

•Longer-term view: Prices remain substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels (e.g., groceries up roughly 30%+ since early 2020), even as year-over-year inflation has cooled from 2021–2022 peaks.[5]

•Services vs. goods: Services (shelter, etc.) have contributed more persistently to inflation than goods in recent years. Store prices (goods) have been milder but still positive on net recently.

•Variability: Results differ by location, store type (discount vs. premium), exact basket, and promotions/shrinkflation. Private-label or discounted items can feel cheaper. Energy spikes and other factors (e.g., prior tariffs or supply issues) influence trends.

In short, while inflation has moderated significantly from multi-decade highs and shoppers can find deals or cheaper alternatives on select items, the average prices paid in stores for a typical basket are higher than a year earlier according to official CPI measures. Data can shift monthly—check the latest BLS CPI release for updates.

Citations (5)

1bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/prices-for-gasoline-increased-34-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-september-2026.htm
Backs: “[[1]](https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2026/prices-for-gasoline-increased-34-2-percent-over-the-year-ended-september-2026.htm)”
2bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm
Backs: “[[2]](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t03.htm)”
3bls.govGovernment
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/charts/cpi-cpi_rc_1cpibycat.stm
Backs: “Subcategories vary—dairy and related products were down about 0.7%, meats/poultry/fish/eggs roughly flat (+0.3%), while fruits/vegetables and nonalcoholic beverages rose around 3.7–3.8%.”
4npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014
Backs: “Mixed individual items and retailer actions: Tracking by outlets like NPR (earlier periods) and others shows many grocery/personal care items stable or slightly down in specific baskets, with retailers (Walmart, Target, etc.) implementing rollbacks/discounts on thousands of items in prior years to compete.”
5americandefault.orgNonprofits and think tanks
https://americandefault.org/statistics/grocery-price-increase-since-2020/
Backs: “Some categories experienced temporary deflation or heavy promotions. However, these have not of”