Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a significant issue in US elections? I'll pull current research and data to give you a factual picture.

Voter fraud does occur in the United States, but research and government investigations consistently find it is very rare relative to total votes cast, and not on a scale that has been shown to change statewide or federal election outcomes.

How common is it?

Research consistently shows that voter fraud is rare in the United States. What the numbers show depends on the study and counting method, but all converge on microscopic rates:

•The Brennan Center's report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report noted it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls".

•A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast.

•A Department of Justice unit formed to find instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

•Other aggregated estimates describe documented fraud rates ranging from fractions of a millionth of a percent to a few hundred-thousandths of a percent, typically described as "extremely rare".

•Studies that parsed mail-ballot cases put fraud tied to mail voting at very low levels, for example accounting for only 0.000043% of total mail ballots cast, or about four cases out of every 10 million mail votes.

Scholars summarize the empirical baseline as: fraud exists but at microscopic levels relative to hundreds of millions of ballots cast.

What the largest databases and reviews find

Heritage Foundation Election Fraud Database: The most-cited public compilation, which it describes as just a sampling and not an exhaustive list, documents 1,290 proven instances of voter fraud from 1,113 criminal convictions, 48 civil penalties, 95 diversion programs and other findings. Other tallies citing the same database list roughly 1,561 "proven instances" yielding about 1,325 convictions across its time window.

Using that database, analysts have calculated that fraudulent votes in a state like Arizona were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades of votes.

Associated Press 2020 review: An Associated Press review of every potential case of voter fraud in the six battleground states disputed in 2020 found fewer than 475 — a number that would have made no difference in the 2020 presidential election. The AP review in 2021 dug into every potential case in those six states and found fewer than 475 cases — a number that would have made no difference in that race, out of more than 25 million ballots cast in those states.

Government and security assessments:
Studies by organizations like the Brennan Center for Justice, the Bipartisan Policy Center, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) consistently conclude that instances of voter impersonation or widespread systemic fraud are exceedingly rare and do not impact election outcomes.

Attorney General William Barr stated in December 2020 that the Department of Justice had not uncovered evidence of voter fraud "on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election", and CISA and state election officials declared the 2020 election "the most secure in American history," stating there was "no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed" votes.

What type of fraud occurs?

When fraud is proven, studies agree that impersonation fraud by voters at the polls very rarely happens, and in-person impersonation which is the one kind of fraud that voter-ID laws actually target, is the rarest of all.

One exhaustive News21 project pulling records from every state found the overall fraud rate to be "infinitesimal" and impersonation fraud by voters at the polls to be the rarest fraud of all: only 10 cases alleged in 12 years.

More common categories among proven cases include absentee ballot fraud, double voting, voting by people with felony convictions who had not had rights restored, and non-citizen registration/voting - but even these represent a tiny number of cases per year nationwide.

Does it affect election outcomes?

The consensus of independent analyses is:

•Fraud exists and isolated cases are prosecuted, but

•Most reported incidents are ultimately traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices, and

•No review has found evidence of fraud large enough to "rig" a statewide or presidential election. Courts reviewing voter ID cases have similarly noted few convictions, for example the Fifth Circuit noted "only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade" before Texas passed its law.

In close local races, a small number of fraudulent votes could theoretically be decisive, which is why election officials maintain safeguards such as voter roll maintenance, signature verification for mail ballots, audits, and post-election canvassing. However, for federal elections, investigations have repeatedly found no concerted effort to tilt the election.

Why the debate continues

Supporters of stricter election integrity laws point to the Heritage database as proof fraud is real and argue even small numbers justify preventive measures like photo ID and proof of citizenship requirements. Opponents point to the same low numbers as evidence that restrictive measures would disenfranchise far more eligible voters than they would stop fraudulent votes.

In short: voter fraud in the US is documented and real, but measured as extremely uncommon - on the order of a handful to a few hundred cases out of hundreds of millions of votes cast.

Citations (2)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “Research consistently shows that voter fraud is rare in the United States. What the numbers show depends on the study and counting method, but all converge on microscopic rates: The Brennan Center's report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found…”
2heritage.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Election Integrity | The Heritage Foundation
Backs: “Scholars summarize the empirical baseline as: fraud exists but at microscopic levels relative to hundreds of millions of ballots cast. What the largest databases and reviews find. Heritage Foundation Election Fraud Database: The most-cited public compilation, which it describes as just a sampling and not an exhaustive…”