Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Whether political polarization is "worse than it has been in the past" depends entirely on which historical era is being compared, as well as how polarization is measured.

In terms of modern history—specifically the mid-to-late 20th century—yes, political polarization is significantly worse today. However, if compared to the entire arc of American history, the nation has survived several periods of equal or greater division, most notably the decade leading up to the Civil War.

Historical context and data reveal several key insights regarding how today's polarization compares to the past:

1. Elite and Congressional Polarization (The Highest in a Century)

Political scientists measure polarization in Congress using a statistical metric called DW-NOMINATE scores, which analyze roll-call voting patterns to map out where politicians fall on a liberal-to-conservative spectrum.

•The Comparison: According to this data, the ideological gap between Democrats and Republicans in Congress has been growing since the 1970s. Today, Congress is more polarized than at any point since the Reconstruction and Gilded Age eras (the late 1870s to the 1890s). Ideological moderates in both parties have virtually disappeared.

•The Mid-20th Century Anomaly: Many people look back on the mid-20th century (the 1950s through the 1970s) as a golden era of bipartisanship. However, historians point out that this era was actually a historical anomaly. Parties were internally diverse: there were highly conservative Southern Democrats and highly liberal Northern Republicans. The subsequent "sorting" of the parties—where liberals aligned with Democrats and conservatives with Republicans—created the stark, clean divisions seen today.

2. Affective Polarization (Disliking the Other Side)

Polarization isn't just about policy; it is about how people feel about each other. Political scientists call this affective polarization—the tendency of citizens to view members of the opposing party with active dislike, distrust, and moral contempt.

•The U.S. as an Outlier: Research co-authored by economists at Brown and Stanford universities reveals that while affective polarization has risen globally, the United States is an extreme outlier. Since the late 1970s, mutual hostility between Democrats and Republicans has risen more rapidly in the U.S. than in peer democracies like the UK, Canada, Australia, or Germany.

•The 2008 Turning Point: A study tracking political divisions in the U.S. public over nearly four decades found that polarization was relatively flat during the 1990s and early 2000s. However, 2008 marked a massive turning point. Triggered by the global financial crisis, the election of Barack Obama, and the rapid rise of smartphones and social media, divisions on social and political issues surged by 64% over the subsequent decade and a half.

3. Comparing Today to Past Historical Crises

While today’s divisions are severe, they do not yet match the absolute worst periods of American history:

•The 1790s: Shortly after the founding of the nation, the division between the Federalists (led by John Adams and Alexander Hamilton) and the Democratic-Republicans (led by Thomas Jefferson) was incredibly vitriolic. Fearing foreign influence and domestic subversion, the Federalist-controlled government passed the Alien and Sedition Acts, which they used to jail opposition journalists and politicians.

•The 1850s (The Pre-Civil War Era): This remains the benchmark for the worst polarization in U.S. history. Polarization was regional, economic, and moral, centered on the institution of slavery. This was not just a breakdown of political civility; it was a total collapse of democratic institutions that culminated in a civil war costing hundreds of thousands of lives.

•The 1890s: Following Reconstruction, polarization and racial backlash peaked again. This era saw the systematic, violent disenfranchisement of millions of African American voters across the South and the rise of severe labor and economic violence.

Why Today Feels Uniquely Dangerous: "The Four Threats"

In their book Four Threats: The Recurring Crises of American Democracy, political scientists Suzanne Mettler and Robert C. Lieberman argue that while the U.S. has survived high polarization before, today's crisis is historically unique because of what is happening alongside it.

Historically, democratic crises have occurred when one or two systemic threats peaked at the same time. Today, for the first time in American history, all four major threats to democracy are peaking simultaneously:

1.Severe Political Polarization: The division of the country into two uncompromising camps.

2.Conflict over Belonging: Intense racial, ethnic, and nativist divisions over who counts as a "true" member of the nation.

3.High Economic Inequality: A widening gap between the wealthy elite and the rest of the country, which erodes trust in the fairness of the system.

4.Excessive Executive Power: The gradual expansion of presidential authority, which weakens legislative and judicial checks and balances.

Summary

If you compare today to the 1950s or 1980s, political polarization is vastly worse, driven by sorted political parties, partisan media echo chambers, and a deep-seated affective dislike of the political opposition.

However, if you compare today to the 1850s or the 1890s, the nation has been through far deeper institutional collapses and widespread political violence. Today’s polarization may not be the worst the country has ever seen, but because it is uniquely combined with intense economic inequality, national identity conflicts, and institutional distrust, it remains one of the most volatile eras in American history.

Citations (16)

1democracyproject.orgNonprofits and think tanks
democracyproject.org
Backs: “In terms of modern history—specifically the mid-to-late 20th century—yes, political polarization is significantly worse today. However, if compared to the entire arc of American history, the nation has survived several periods of equal or greater division, most notably the decade leading up to the Civil War.…”
2usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “Elite and Congressional Polarization (The Highest in a Century). Political scientists measure polarization in Congress using a statistical metric called DW-NOMINATE scores, which analyze roll-call voting patterns to map out where politicians fall on a liberal-to-conservative spectrum. The Comparison: According to this…”
3usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “Elite and Congressional Polarization (The Highest in a Century). Political scientists measure polarization in Congress using a statistical metric called DW-NOMINATE scores, which analyze roll-call voting patterns to map out where politicians fall on a liberal-to-conservative spectrum. The Comparison: According to this…”
4brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “The subsequent "sorting" of the parties—where liberals aligned with Democrats and conservatives with Republicans—created the stark, clean divisions seen today. 2.”
5cpreview.orgNonprofits and think tanks
cpreview.org
Backs: “The subsequent "sorting" of the parties—where liberals aligned with Democrats and conservatives with Republicans—created the stark, clean divisions seen today. 2.”
6carnegie.orgNonprofits and think tanks
carnegie.org
Backs: “Political scientists call this affective polarization—the tendency of citizens to view members of the opposing party with active dislike, distrust, and moral contempt. The U.S.”
7cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “The 2008 Turning Point: A study tracking political divisions in the U.S. public over nearly four decades found that polarization was relatively flat during the 1990s and early 2000s. However, 2008 marked a massive turning point. Triggered by the global financial crisis, the election of Barack Obama, and the rapid rise…”
8courthousenews.comNews and mediaquality 0.87
courthousenews.com
Backs: “The 2008 Turning Point: A study tracking political divisions in the U.S. public over nearly four decades found that polarization was relatively flat during the 1990s and early 2000s. However, 2008 marked a massive turning point. Triggered by the global financial crisis, the election of Barack Obama, and the rapid rise…”
9cpreview.orgNonprofits and think tanks
cpreview.org
Backs: “Comparing Today to Past Historical Crises. While today’s divisions are severe, they do not yet match the absolute worst periods of American history: The 1790s: Shortly after the founding of the nation, the division between the Federalists (led by John Adams and Alexander Hamilton) and the Democratic-Republicans (led…”
10newbooksnetwork.comBlogs and newsletters
newbooksnetwork.com
Backs: “Comparing Today to Past Historical Crises. While today’s divisions are severe, they do not yet match the absolute worst periods of American history: The 1790s: Shortly after the founding of the nation, the division between the Federalists (led by John Adams and Alexander Hamilton) and the Democratic-Republicans (led…”
11americandemocracycollaborative.orgNonprofits and think tanks
americandemocracycollaborative.org
Backs: “This era saw the systematic, violent disenfranchisement of millions of African American voters across the South and the rise of severe labor and economic violence. Why Today Feels Uniquely Dangerous: "The Four Threats"”
12newamerica.orgNonprofits and think tanks
newamerica.org
Backs: “Lieberman argue that while the U.S. has survived high polarization before, today's crisis is historically unique because of what is happening alongside it. Historically, democratic crises have occurred when one or two systemic threats peaked at the same time.”
13stanford.eduAcademic
stanford.edu
Backs: “Historically, democratic crises have occurred when one or two systemic threats peaked at the same time. Today, for the first time in American history, all four major threats to democracy are peaking simultaneously:”
14sobrief.comNot yet classified
sobrief.com
Backs: “Severe Political Polarization: The division of the country into two uncompromising camps. Conflict over Belonging: Intense racial, ethnic, and nativist divisions over who counts as a "true" member of the nation.”
15uchicago.eduAcademic
uchicago.edu
Backs: “Severe Political Polarization: The division of the country into two uncompromising camps. Conflict over Belonging: Intense racial, ethnic, and nativist divisions over who counts as a "true" member of the nation.”
16facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “If you compare today to the 1950s or 1980s, political polarization is vastly worse, driven by sorted political parties, partisan media echo chambers, and a deep-seated affective dislike of the political opposition. However, if you compare today to the 1850s or the 1890s, the nation has been through far deeper…”