Is Donald Trump improving the lives of Americans?

Short answer: it’s mixed, and it depends on which outcomes you care about most. Here’s what the most recent, nonpartisan data show since Donald Trump took office again on January 20, 2025 (as of October 21, 2026).

Costs and affordability (pressure points for many households)

•Inflation: Overall prices are up 3.7% year over year in September 2026; energy prices rose 20.4% and gasoline 34.2% over the past year.[1]

•Gas and mortgages: The AAA national average gas price is about $4.28 as of October 20, 2026; 30‑year mortgage rates are about 7.40% in mid‑October, near a 3‑year high.[2]

•Pay vs. prices: After adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026.[3]

Jobs and growth

•Labor market: Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026 and payrolls rose by 29,000—both little changed that month.[4]

•Economic growth: Real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025; in 2026 Q2 it grew at a 1.5% annual rate (advance/second estimates).[5]

•Consumer mood: Consumer confidence fell sharply to 81.9 in September (Conference Board), and University of Michigan sentiment ticked down in October’s preliminary reading.[6]

Public safety and health

•Crime: The FBI reports violent crime fell 9.3% in 2025, the largest year‑to‑year decline on record; BJS also finds an 11% drop in the violent‑offense rate from 2024 to 2025.[7]

•Overdose deaths: CDC provisional data indicate overdose deaths declined again in 2025 versus 2024.[8]

Health coverage

•Insurance: The Census Bureau says 7.9% of people were uninsured for all of 2025—statistically unchanged from 2024. However, multiple states have seen 2026 marketplace (ACA) enrollment drop as subsidies and rules changed.[9]

Policy choices shaping conditions (causation is complex, but these matter)

•Trade: In 2025 the administration imposed a 10% “reciprocal” baseline tariff under IEEPA and raised Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%—moves that can lift some domestic industries while adding to some prices.[10]

Bottom line

•If you weigh lower crime and fewer overdose deaths heavily, or value a still‑low unemployment rate, you could say things have improved. If your yardsticks are day‑to‑day affordability—gas, mortgages, and pay after inflation—or consumer sentiment, the picture looks tougher in 2026 than a year ago. No president fully controls these outcomes, but policy (tariffs, health‑insurance rules, etc.) has contributed to today’s mix.[1]

If you tell me which areas matter most to you (prices, jobs, safety, immigration, health care, etc.), I can dig into those specifically for a more tailored answer.

Citations (10)

1bls.govGovernment
Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “Overall prices are up 3.7% year over year in September 2026; energy prices rose 20.4% and gasoline 34.2% over the past year.”
2aaa.comNonprofits and think tanks
AAA Fuel Prices
Backs: “30‑year mortgage rates are about 7.40% in mid‑October, near a 3‑year high.”
3bls.govGovernment
Real Earnings News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “After adjusting for inflation, average hourly earnings fell 0.7% from September 2025 to September 2026.”
4bls.govGovernment
Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M09 Results
Backs: “Unemployment was 4.2% in September 2026 and payrolls rose by 29,000—both little changed that month.”
5bea.govGovernment
BEA | Bureau of Economic Analysis
Backs: “Real GDP grew 2.1% in 2025; in 2026 Q2 it grew at a 1.5% annual rate (advance/second estimates).”
6axios.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
New 12-year low in consumer confidence
Backs: “Consumer confidence fell sharply to 81.9 in September (Conference Board), and University of Michigan sentiment ticked down in October’s preliminary reading.”
7fbi.govGovernment
Violent Crime Falls at Historic Rate, New FBI Data Show — FBI
Backs: “BJS also finds an 11% drop in the violent‑offense rate from 2024 to 2025.”
8cdc.govGovernment
U.S. Overdose Deaths Decrease for Third Consecutive Year in 2025 | NCHS Pressroom | CDC
Backs: “CDC provisional data indicate overdose deaths declined again in 2025 versus 2024.”
9census.govGovernment
Health Insurance Visualizations
Backs: “However, multiple states have seen 2026 marketplace (ACA) enrollment drop as subsidies and rules changed.”
10whitehouse.govGovernment
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security – The White House
Backs: “In 2025 the administration imposed a 10% “reciprocal” baseline tariff under IEEPA and raised Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%—moves that can lift some domestic industries while adding to some prices.”